March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special

[OceanStWx]

Its Always Sunny just put in for a position in Puerto Rico, crying for his Momma j/k bro

 

After my Christmas trip there I almost considered putting in for a lateral to those positions. Heavy, heavy mojitos instead of heavy, heavy snow. In the end I just couldn't pass up the NNE spring weather.

[Ginx snewx]

After my Christmas trip there I almost considered putting in for a lateral to those positions. Heavy, heavy mojitos instead of heavy, heavy snow. In the end I just couldn't pass up the NNE spring weather.

LOl, mojitos are the bomb.

[Ginx snewx]

Ryan, interior Ice storm for CT?

[It's Always Sunny]

Its Always Sunny just put in for a position in Puerto Rico, crying for his Momma j/k bro

?? I think you have the wrong person.

[HoarfrostHubb]

One of the better monthly couplets for SNE?

[dryslot]

After my Christmas trip there I almost considered putting in for a lateral to those positions. Heavy, heavy mojitos instead of heavy, heavy snow. In the end I just couldn't pass up the NNE spring weather.

We have the best mud in New England

[SR Airglow]

Accupro snowmap has 6"+ for the entire state of CT except for far SE and extreme SW(greenwich and stamford basically), but, I've noticed that these maps always overestimate the coastal gradient, and even in the blizzard they had an absurdly sharp cutoff that didn't come close to verifying, so, looking at the run plus interpreting the commentary on it both here and in NYC forum, I'd guess it's 6"+ for all of CT.

 

I'm posting the map below, I'm not 100% sure it's allowed, mods, if it's not, please remove it, and I apologize in advance.

-skisheep

[HoarfrostHubb]

We have the best mud in New England

Was there much of a mud season last year? I seem to recall it being dry along with the warmth

My son had outdoor baseball practice in March. Unheard of

[Typhoon Tip]

Man it would suck if I get snowbound in Maine

Lol, right

[dryslot]

Was there much of a mud season last year? I seem to recall it being dry along with the warmth

My son had outdoor baseball practice in March. Unheard of

Nope had very little snow was a very short mud season

[N. OF PIKE]

euro ens? tick milder than op?

[Ginx snewx]

buried cayonnes deep

[Ginx snewx]

euro ens? tick milder than op?

good try

[Ginx snewx]

Wills in Beantown cruising the St Paddys day scene with massive wood, crushed

[CTWeatherFreak]

euro ens? tick milder than op?

 

That a question, statement, fear, wish, or what exacty ?  

[N. OF PIKE]

HPC doesn't really have this as a likely warning event until u get north of massachusetts....based on their probs....(they go up over 50% for 6 inches right at ma (nh line) ma/vt line as well thru 0z wed

50% 8 inch probs N of MHT-to like S. greens up to conway/izg /foothills of maine

i'd like to see these probs trend more bullish for areas S of ma/nh line soon

[CT Rain]

Euro ens sfc low track is basically identical to the op. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

HPC doesn't really have this as a likely warning event until u get north of massachusetts....based on their probs....(they go up over 50% for 6 inches right at ma (nh line) ma/vt line as well

 

50% 8 inch probs N of MHT-to like S. greens up to conway/izg /foothills of maine

 

i'd like to see these probs  trend more bullish for areas S of ma/nh line soon

 

I'd like to see these probs trend more bullish for areas S of the Ma/Ct line soon!    

[N. OF PIKE]

That a question, statement, fear, wish, or what exacty ?

question as to why they were mention'd yet. was a question bc last nite were a weenie tick milder it seem'd.

And also HPC isn't as bullish for areas in Northern mass yet (thru 0z wed) , so i was wondering also if maybe they aren't sold on euro yet, but also they made at 1pm so perhaps seeing more euro consistency and euro ens looking snowy will up the probs at least down to mass pike area. i bet they will!

[Ginx snewx]

question as to why they were mention'd yet. was a question bc last nite were a weenie tick milder it seem'd.

 

And also HPC isn't as bullish for areas in Northern mass yet (thru 0z wed)  , so i was wondering also if maybe they aren't sold on euro yet 

its the same Pick, simply awesome

[N. OF PIKE]

its the same Pick, simply awesome

thanks ginxy, i should have just ask'd how they were....to avoid any confusion on board, bc i had zero idea to how they look'd

 

i like to watch the shifts on the hpc snow prob maps ....and i bet that since euro and euro ens are cold and snowy that they will weight those into their new snow maps later tonite...and prolly increase our probs for 6 +

[CTWeatherFreak]

thanks ginxy, i should have just ask'd how they were....to avoid any confusion on board, bc i had zero idea to how they look'd

 

i like to watch the shifts on the hpc snow prob maps ....and i bet that since euro and euro ens are cold and snowy that they will weight those into their new snow maps later tonite...and prolly increase our probs for 6 +

 

Really!  That Euro snowfall map posted above has the 12" line all the way down to near hartford, and everything just north of Ct's south coast over WSW type criteria.

[mahk_webstah]

Ok I'm in.

Lol....I should just copy and quote your last 10 posts or so.

 

In Florida now and Houston until Wednesday night.  Lol.   I hope the NOGAPS day 7 blizzard comes to fruition.

[N. OF PIKE]

Really!  That Euro snowfall map posted above has the 12" line all the way down to near hartford, and everything just north of Ct's south coast over WSW type criteria.

well will has told me to take those weenie snow maps with a few grains of salt even from euro. But ya euro looks very snowy.

 

i'd really like to know what 925 temps are in bos tuesday from like 10z to 18z ....box has said 32f temps are threshhold for significant accums during day ...a tad milder during evening.....with 8:1 and 10:1 ratio's respectively that can be estimated. I wish we can link a pic of euro surface 2m temps for area tuesday around noon.

[CTWeatherFreak]

well will has told me to take those weenie snow maps with a few grains of salt even from euro. But ya euro looks very snowy.

 

i'd really like to know what 925 temps are in bos tuesday from like 10z to 18z ....box has said 32f temps are threshhold for significant accums during day ...a tad milder during evening.....with 8:1 and 10:1 ratio's respectively that can be estimated. I wish we can link a pic of euro surface 2m temps for area tuesday around noon.

 Check out the new discussion; just out at 4:35!

[educate]

HEADLINES...

* COLD AND DRY MONDAY
* SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

VERY ANOMALOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN UNFOLDING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
AO PROJECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY NEGATIVE AND POSSIBLY ATTAINING
UNPRECEDENTED VALUES. THIS TRANSLATES TO AN ACTIVE POLAR JET AND
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD/EQUATORWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FOCUS FOR
THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE CENTERED ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE APPEAR TO BE TIED TO
THE EVOLUTION AND EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. AS THIS TROUGH TRAVERSES EASTWARD
INTO THE MARITIMES MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE AND LATITUDE OF
THIS EVOLVING VORTEX. THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST AND FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH THIS VORTEX OVER THE NW ATLC THAN THE GFS. THIS
THEN HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER ME AND QUEBEC
ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD DOME...SPECIFICALLY THE
DURATION/DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR DAMMING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EVOLVING HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCK...THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION FITS THE SYNOPTIC SETTING.
THUS WILL BASE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST OFF THE 00Z AND NOW
NEW 12Z ECMWF. THIS LOCKS IN THE COLDER LONGER THAN THE GFS AND
RESULTS IN A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MORE SNOW AND ICE FOR A LONGER
DURATION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

MONDAY...CHILLY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT SIGNS OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH 925 MB TEMPS /-12C/ COLDER THAN 850 MB
TEMPS...COURTSEY OF 1033MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC. FORTUNATELY WITH
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THUS NOT MUCH
OF A WIND CHILL. BIAS CORRECTED MOS ARE COLDER AND WILL FOLLOW
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PATTERN. HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S TO L40S WITH
LOW TO MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. ABOUT 7-10 DEGS COLDER THAN NORMAL.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...

PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ONSET OF PRECIP GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE BLOCK PATTERN. IN ADDITION...00Z ECENS SUPPORTS THIS
WITH ITS SECONDARY LOW FARTHER TO THE SW THAN ITS OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPART. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO NE LATE
MON NGT WITH PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. COLUMN
COLD ENOUGH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS FOR
SNOW AS PTYPE.

BY TUE STRONG JET DYNAMICS/TROUGH BECOMING NEG TILTED ALONG WITH
A SHORT HALF WAVELENGTH BETWEEN TROF-RIDGE AXIS SUGGEST STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT. HENCE HEAVY QPF POTENTIAL. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A COASTAL HUGGER WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG THE
COASTLINE. HOWEVER STILL TRICKY FORECAST HERE GIVEN PTYPE ISSUES
AND STILL 60-72 HRS OUT. FORECAST WILL HINGE ON HOW STUBBORN COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE GIVEN DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
ARE FOR SNOW TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI
GIVEN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARM THE BLYR FAIRLY QUICKLY.
HOWEVER NORTHWARD INTO THE HFD-PVD-BOS CORRIDOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TUE AM BEFORE A CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND
POSSIBLY TO RAIN. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
/6-12"/ APPEARS ALONG AND NW OF MA PIKE AND I-495 WHERE PTYPE MAY
REMAIN ALL SNOW.

CAN/T STRESS ENOUGH THAT THIS IS OUR PRELIMINARY THINKING AND
THAT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXIST GIVEN THERE ARE PTYPE ISSUES
/RAIN- SNOW LINE/ ALONG WITH THE INHERENT TIME FRAME...STILL
60-72 HRS OUT. Check out the new discussion; just out at 4:35!

 

[N. OF PIKE]

Check out the new discussion; just out at 4:35!

thanks just read it

MONDAY...CHILLY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT SIGNS OF AN

ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH 925 MB TEMPS /-12C/ COLDER THAN 850 MB

TEMPS...COURTSEY OF 1033MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

they are weighting 0z ecmwf and 12z ecmwf heavily and just mention tons of question marks with regard to r/sn line.

they mention good model argreement wrt to coastal hugger and also arctic air. coastal huggers usually don't equate to snow bombs in boston (thou the track of the hugger is probably key?) but well see how this plays out.

[dendrite]

18z NAM brings pingers all the way up to here. IZG gets walloped.

[Ginx snewx]

thanks just read it

MONDAY...CHILLY AIRMASS OVER NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT SIGNS OF AN

ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH 925 MB TEMPS /-12C/ COLDER THAN 850 MB

TEMPS...COURTSEY OF 1033MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC.

they are weighting 0z ecmwf and 12z ecmwf heavily and just mention tons of question marks with regard to r/sn line.

they mention good model argreement wrt to coastal hugger and also arctic air. coastal huggers usually don't equate to snow bombs in boston (thou the track of the hugger is probably key?) but well see how this plays out.

so Pick with 850s like this, pcp like this and temps 33 you are saying that this is not snow?

[Typhoon Tip]

Enter expletive here -->