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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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All the way to the coast?  :popcorn:

 

 

I don't think the coast is going to be much of a problem. I don't have all the tools at my disposal that I have in the office, but I would have to think ageostrophic flow will be off the land as the secondary redevelops. Water temps aren't the issue this time of year. Of course the heaviest will probably be inland where you get some deformation.

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BOS is right on the edge this run, probably good thump to some rain but just a mini-tickle further southeast and it looks great. Euro wunderweeniemaps show like 6-10" around BOS but I think some of that might actually be rain verbatim since the BL might get a little warm with some onshore flow. Damn close to all snow though.

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Not sure if this is the right thread, but NYC metro getting a suprise this afternoon, SN- here with reports of SN/SN+ heading east, accumulating in NYC and NJ, southern CT folks on this board have a decent chance at a coating to an inch this afternoon. Nice to look out the window and see snow falling, and even nicer that the EURO tries to make it a signficiant event down here.

-skisheep

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I don't think the coast is going to be much of a problem. I don't have all the tools at my disposal that I have in the office, but I would have to think ageostrophic flow will be off the land as the secondary redevelops. Water temps aren't the issue this time of year. Of course the heaviest will probably be inland where you get some deformation.

Whats your take on the strength of the cross barrier SE flow with this as the secondary develops? I figure it wouldn't be bad until after the initial WAA thump when the secondary takes over, but the 12z Euro yesterday was pretty bad WRT downsloping in these parts with 100-150 flow from 1000-750mb for a lot of this.

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I don't think the coast is going to be much of a problem. I don't have all the tools at my disposal that I have in the office, but I would have to think ageostrophic flow will be off the land as the secondary redevelops. Water temps aren't the issue this time of year. Of course the heaviest will probably be inland where you get some deformation.

Going to be some serious rates in those bands as the low wraps up in the GOM

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Not sure if this is the right thread, but NYC metro getting a suprise this afternoon, SN- here with reports of SN/SN+ heading east, accumulating in NYC and NJ, southern CT folks on this board have a decent chance at a coating to an inch this afternoon. Nice to look out the window and see snow falling, and even nicer that the EURO tries to make it a signficiant event down here.

-skisheep

Not sure if it is a surprise.... they were tooting that this morning on the morning coffee programs...

 

Enjoy!

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Not sure if this is the right thread, but NYC metro getting a super prise this afternoon, SN- here with reports of SN/SN+ heading east, accumulating in NYC and NJ, southern CT folks on this board have a decent chance at a coating to an inch this afternoon. Nice to look out the window and see snow falling, and even nicer that the EURO tries to make it a signficiant event down here.

-skisheep

nice 1/4 Vis ob from Central Park
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The NAM  called that. But I wouldn't have believed the NAM eiher.  LoL

 

Not sure if this is the right thread, but NYC metro getting a suprise this afternoon, SN- here with reports of SN/SN+ heading east, accumulating in NYC and NJ, southern CT folks on this board have a decent chance at a coating to an inch this afternoon. Nice to look out the window and see snow falling, and even nicer that the EURO tries to make it a signficiant event down here.

-skisheep

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I don't think the coast is going to be much of a problem. I don't have all the tools at my disposal that I have in the office, but I would have to think ageostrophic flow will be off the land as the secondary redevelops. Water temps aren't the issue this time of year. Of course the heaviest will probably be inland where you get some deformation.

Thanks -- good answer! I'm ready for one more....

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Whats your take on the strength of the cross barrier SE flow with this as the secondary develops? I figure it wouldn't be bad until after the initial WAA thump when the secondary takes over, but the 12z Euro yesterday was pretty bad WRT downsloping in these parts with 100-150 flow from 1000-750mb for a lot of this.

 

 

I would think it's a serious concern as initial frontogenetical processes are dominating. Most of the guidance progs a pretty stiff SE LLJ during the onset of precip. The faster that secondary develops the sooner deformation will develop and that should overwhelm the negative terrain influences.

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The NAM  called that. But I wouldn't have believed the NAM eiher.  LoL

Yup I kept tossing it, usually in these light events it's permentantly out to lunch, but it gets kudos here, although even it didn't have the heavy stuff for another 2-3 hours or so.

Up to a moderate snow here, no accumulation yet but ground is wet, and flakes are surviving for a few seconds before melting away, should accumulate shortly.

-skisheep

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I would think it's a serious concern as initial frontogenetical processes are dominating. Most of the guidance progs a pretty stiff SE LLJ during the onset of precip. The faster that secondary develops the sooner deformation will develop and that should overwhelm the negative terrain influences.

Gotcha. Thanks. Yeah, going to LSC really helped (forced) me to learn about these effects the hard way.

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BOS is right on the edge this run, probably good thump to some rain but just a mini-tickle further southeast and it looks great. Euro wunderweeniemaps show like 6-10" around BOS but I think some of that might actually be rain verbatim since the BL might get a little warm with some onshore flow. Damn close to all snow though.

Verbatim the bl warms mid day Tuesday to the 30s but mid levels stay cold. But the key point is it stays cold during the heaviest part per euro.

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