amc Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 14-18 WOOHOO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 pepperell should be in a good spot for this. might get 10. Yes, I would think we are Ina prime spot, unfortunately. I'm a snow and storm lover but I'm ready for some golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 21z SREFs ticked colder vs. 15z furthest north extent of 0c 850 mb is just north of pike by 18z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 21z SREFs ticked colder vs. 15z furthest north extent of 0c 850 mb is just north of pike by 18z tomorrow its such a close call for bos and areas thru 128 for the pm stuff. i think rates may crank and i think well go to a heavy snow i just don't know if temps will be cold enuf during day to accumulate late pm. i think they may just outside city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 rocking... the update at last... follows trends of colder ticks: 923pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrotonDave Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 pepperell should be in a good spot for this. might get 10. Box upped their totals for NW Middlesex county to 10-17" thru Wednesday morning. Liking that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 rocking... the update at last... follows trends of colder ticks: StormTotalSnowFcst_930pm.png Wow, 8-10" for Tolland? I'd bet on the under... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Box upped their totals for NW Middlesex county to 10-17" thru Wednesday morning. Liking that trend. Yikes, I better get to bed, serious shoveling again tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 rocking... the update at last... follows trends of colder ticks: StormTotalSnowFcst_930pm.png they must be seeing nice trends on that second batch and other stuff. . although i wonder wether box uses a model blend in addition to local climo knowledge and met experience when paintin these maps, or these maps could be the product of one individual model or experimental product? they increase northern bristol and extreme n pym counties into 6-8. i thought maybe they'd hit the area along pike in central mass harder and maybe up thru 495 again into essex county but they increased across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 BOX seems very aggressive. I think it comes down to that second batch. Maybe a little ballsy for 14" at ORH but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 BOX seems very aggressive. I think it comes down to that second batch. Maybe a little ballsy for 14" at ORH but we'll see. Yeah I'm not going 14" here right now. Thinking more like 6-10...but that second batch could def get us over a foot if it works out. The trend has been colder...we may never change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 They reduced the 14-18" areas... no biggie. Did not have faith in that anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 they must be seeing nice trends on that second batch and other stuff. . although i wonder wether box uses a model blend in addition to local climo knowledge and met experience when paintin these maps, or these maps could be the product of one individual model or experimental product? they increase northern bristol and extreme n pym counties into 6-8. i thought maybe they'd hit the area along pike in central mass harder and maybe up thru 495 again into essex county but they increased across the board. agree seems bullish from current guidance... let's see how NAM trends now... should have a good 6+hours where Boston metro will be on fence / above with 800-900mb temps... rates will lull during that time so i'm anticipating cleared roads / drizzle until the commahead starts to crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 00z NAM pounds S VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 00z NAM pounds S VT/NH/ME. crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 crushed Widespread 1'+. I like when the weenie runs are when we're on the doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 crushed Wow...I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 they must be seeing nice trends on that second batch and other stuff. . although i wonder wether box uses a model blend in addition to local climo knowledge and met experience when paintin these maps, or these maps could be the product of one individual model or experimental product? Just a product of temps, weather, and QPF. Those grids are created using any combination of local knowledge and model blends, then some form of snow amount calculation (i.e. straight ratio, ratio based on surface temps, ratio based on model output, etc.) is applied to QPF using the weather created off the temps (both surface and aloft). So ideally, all weather elements are consistent with each other. Finally you add up all the individual smaller periods (from 1 up to 6 hours) and create a storm total snowfall that has deterministic numbers. Run one more tool that creates a map based on those deterministic numbers falling into ranges and there you have the final product. In essence, these aren't hand drawn. The local knowledge manipulation comes well before this type of snowfall map is ever created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Widespread 1'+. I like when the weenie runs are when we're on the doorstep. 6hrs out in the the Nam's wheelhouse....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z Nam more generous with the commahead for northern MA... and crushes southern NH/coastalME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 NAM looking slightly colder and juicier. ~1.35" qpf for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Just a product of temps, weather, and QPF. Those grids are created using any combination of local knowledge and model blends, then some form of snow amount calculation (i.e. straight ratio, ratio based on surface temps, ratio based on model output, etc.) is applied to QPF using the weather created off the temps (both surface and aloft). So ideally, all weather elements are consistent with each other. Finally you add up all the individual smaller periods (from 1 up to 6 hours) and create a storm total snowfall that has deterministic numbers. Run one more tool that creates a map based on those deterministic numbers falling into ranges and there you have the final product. In essence, these aren't hand drawn. The local knowledge manipulation comes well before this type of snowfall map is ever created. The subtelty around the CON area is fascinating. You are catching the elevation. CON is 10-14 but I am 14-18 12 miles NNW. Makes sense thought as I have almost 400ft on CON by the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The subtelty around the CON area is fascinating. You are catching the elevation. CON is 10-14 but I am 14-18 12 miles NNW. Makes sense thought as I have almost 400ft on CON by the river. Don't quote me on it but I believe our grids are down to 4 km spacing, so we have a pretty good resolution on the terrain. We can run tools that force wind (forecast or model output) over the terrain to enhance upslope/downslope effects on all sorts of weather elements (like QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Don't quote me on it but I believe our grids are down to 4 km spacing, so we have a pretty good resolution on the terrain. We can run tools that force wind (forecast or model output) over the terrain to enhance upslope/downslope effects on all sorts of weather elements (like QPF).Nice office you got there. Great views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Nice office you got there. Great views. The horse farm really adds a nice touch (seriously). And from the main Pineland complex down the street you can easily see MWN on a clear day. Really looking like we'll do well around here. Skis haven't gone in the closet just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 The horse farm really adds a nice touch (seriously). And from the main Pineland complex down the street you can easily see MWN on a clear day. Really looking like we'll do well around here. Skis haven't gone in the closet just yet. Yeah we missed you sunday while you were enjoying the country club lifestyle.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yeah we missed you sunday while you were enjoying the country club lifestyle.......... I should have just lit my membership fees on fire instead. I'm hoping mother nature shoots her load in the next two weeks and has nothing left for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 I should have just lit my membership fees on fire instead. I'm hoping mother nature shoots her load in the next two weeks and has nothing left for April. Ekster and I were talking golf but I was getting more and more depressed , Certanly no 2012 this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I'm going 6-8 here and Bos and 8-12 ORH north . Think the stingray stings all is pretty good tomorrow pm U feeling okay/ LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 U feeling okay/ LOL You don't post enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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