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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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If 6" is amount to verify for WSW I'll take the under

Agree, I think 3-6" is a good range for BOS.  The wsw is more for the wintry mix after the snow, though I haven't been following too closely until now.  IIRC the NWS mentioned that yesterday.

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I feel pretty good about that range. If somehow the RPM is right and it goes nuts here in the aftn then it might be higher, but confidence in the RPM additional snowfall in our backyard isn't high.

 

I think we see a grazing from the afternoon backlash. Regardless of whether or not things cool down enough to make it worthwhile, I just think the meatier precip will be focused a bit further north with that portion.

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I think we see a grazing from the afternoon backlash. Regardless of whether or not things cool down enough to make it worthwhile, I just think the meatier precip will be focused a bit further north with that portion.

 

It probably will be. Should be fun to watch develop..I wouldn't be shocked if it did clip us with a good burst.

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BOX doubling down on the 10-14.

 

O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.130319T0100Z-130320T0000Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...AYER
429 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

 

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BOX doubling down on the 10-14.

 

O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0006.130319T0100Z-130320T0000Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...AYER

429 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING

TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 14 INCHES...ALONG

  WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

 

They're still going 12-16'' here. I don't see it, but I'd like to believe it.

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The Euro cut back QPF from 12z yesterday to 12z today. Of course no one really discussed that on here lol.

 

It's a bit more disjointed, the storm's front-thump doesn't look as dynamic, and the secondary takes a bit longer to really wind up. It's not really an issue for ME and parts of N NH around Conway but I don't think we'll see many 12"+ numbers south of the Lakes Region. 

 

actually, several did.

see below.

 

definite trend for colder/drier WAA + later secondary development on 12z Euro / 18z NAM, we'll see if it holds

 

fwiw, SREF plumes for KBos have ticked up 03z-->09z-->15z:  4.21 -->4.5-->5.3"

 

Just going through Euro now....

 

Somewhat underwhelmed by qpf on front-end dump

Also best commahead stinger limited to NEMA and points north... actually looked better on NAM/GFS

 

In terms of column, 12z clearly ticked colder than 0z so Boston does better in that regard:

warmest 850s for Boston

12z:

attachicon.gif12zeuro850mb33.png

 

0z:

attachicon.gif00zeuro850mb45.png

 

All in all, 4-6 is a safe forecast for Boston, was hoping Euro would give reason for higher but not there yet.

Also see some daytime melting during dryslot Tuesday until secondary deepens, and still not clear how much commahead impact we actually see ala NAM/GFS.

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actually, several did.

see below.

 

definite trend for colder/drier WAA + later secondary development on 12z Euro / 18z NAM, we'll see if it holds

 

fwiw, SREF plumes for KBos have ticked up 03z-->09z-->15z:  4.21 -->4.5-->5.3"

Nice... sorry.. .I didn't see your post. You were in the minority though lol. 

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Nice... sorry.. .I didn't see your post. You were in the minority though lol. 

actually if you bring it up your labeled a downer or a bridge jumper, unless as wxniss did, he posted it at 2am, but then nobody sees it lol

 

avoiding discussion of potential trends or labeling them weenie talk makes AWT's easier to confirm

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I do think numbers like that are just too high in this setup outside of ME. 

 

Agreed... I've been going 8-12" for here locally all along, and even that I bet may take some upslope enhancement help as I think we are good for about 0.75" QPF. 

 

BTV was 14-18" this morning and now are 10-14" here... I still am not sure about the widespread foot plus snowfall amounts being tossed around outside of Maine.  Obviously the summits and ski area upper elevations tend to surprise bigger, but that's what happens at 3,000 or 4,000ft up in the atmosphere. 

 

This will likely end up like a widespread 6-12" long-is duration event... I think outside Maine it may be tough to get anything more than spot amounts 12"+.

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actually if you bring it up your labeled a downer or a bridge jumper, unless as wxniss did, he posted it at 2am, but then nobody sees it lol

 

avoiding discussion of potential trends or labeling them weenie talk makes AWT's easier to confirm

 

 

Its a minor wobble though...not really a "Trend". Its still well within the snowfall forecast for BOS. If it had sliced QPF in half or something, that would have been something to note...but a difference of like 0.10" from run to run really doesn't constitute anything major or high impact to worry about or get excited over.

 

Its going to snow pretty good overnight for most people. Everyone is going to get advisory snows and most along and north of the pike will get warning snows I think. There are certain to be the usual screw zones where someone gets 4-5" and expected 7".

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