dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 You'll get 10-12" easily. He is rocking back and forth in a chair rubbing his hands together feverishly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 You'll get 10-12" easily. Well, I know I'm not in danger of being shut out this time! But, would like to at leaset hit the low end of my forecast for once. What's your take on ratios from this? I asked the question earlier, but not one responded--I get no respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 He is rocking back and forth in a chair rubbing his hands together feverishly I'm not rocking back and forth. But I am rubbing my hands together. It's damn cold in here.....gotta light a second fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro QPF generally looks like around an inch or more north of the Pike...think it's time to up my expectations from 6-10'' to 8-12''. New BOX warning is for 12-16''...not sure if we'll have the precip for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well, I know I'm not in danger of being shut out this time! But, would like to at leaset hit the low end of my forecast for once. What's your take on ratios from this? I asked the question earlier, but not one responded--I get no respect. I think ratios will be decent for the first half of the storm anyways. The column will be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 But those areas you mentioned were never supposed to get a ton of snow anyways. I do question the 18" amounts near the NA/NH border. I'm not so sure about that. of course, all i'lm saying is those areas in n bristol and norfolk and over to medway millis are in 4-6 and 6-8 (6-8 n ri to) respectively on box map. just seems to me that the weaker WAA thump would now lean them toward the lower end of forecast where as before it could have lean'd other way. i think it's ok to say "yes that's right" and nobody will jump , i'm just trying to get a read on the trends. not holding anyone over the coals, it just irks me when it seems mets are afraid to say yes, that weenies will splatter of the deep end, or say "storms over" where smarter than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Still time to bump those amounts further north. 12 to 16 hours to go time and another run of 0Z models. The GYX 6-hr snow tool still is only going out to 8 PM tomorrow, and thru that time the latest iteration has dropped snowfall about 30% compared to this morning's version - from 9" to 6" IMBY, for instance. Hope this just means a bigger dump tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Your area is horrible for snow. When I moved to western Mass the first time (late 90's), I thought getting into Mass was going to give me a lot of snow. It was the infancy of the internet, and I remember trying to find out where I'd get a lot of snow. Dopey me saw how much ORH got from the BOX site. I figured being west of there i was assured of more. Ha! Disaster. So, I subequently moved to ORH to enjoy the snow there. Then to Maine to enjoy more snow there, and then back to western Mass where I do get snow (most years). I moved here to Lenox in July 2001 and have been living here off and on for the past 12 years as I have a lot of family in this area. When I first moved here from coastal Fairfield County CT, I was initially extremely excited about Berkshire snow climatology, but this was before my meteorology education and becoming acquainted with local snowfall patterns. While still a big step up from my old stomping grounds where 25-30" was the seasonal average, my neck of the woods is not all it's cracked up to be snowfall wise due to shadowing on easterly flow and missing out on some coastals. I've noticed that elevation is not the most important factor in determining snowfall around here. Rather, it's your location relative to the topographic barriers. Case in point, 1K on the east slope is better than 1.5K on the west slope as most cold season precipitation is generated in a pre-warm frontal scenario with easterly flow in the low levels. The easterly upslope flow generates low clouds that can help to enhance precipitation totals there via low level seeder feeder effects where the precipitation particles generated aloft can grow due to accretion as they fall through these low level clouds (Passarelli and Boehme 1983, MWR). The fog often seen on the east slope during easterly flows is a testament to this process. Upslope flow can also increase lift in the midlevels as well by creating a vertically propagating gravity wave. Another thing I've noticed is that the more gently sloped Berkshires are much more efficient at generating upslope precip than the steeply sloped narrow Taconic ridges. I'm not sure why this is, but Passarelli and Boehme suggest that the removal of precipitation from clouds is most efficient when there is a balance between generation and depletion of cloud water content. If low level lift is too strong, the generation rate far exceeds the removal rate, thereby reducing the efficiency of the precip generation. The article I referenced is great read for those interested in SNE upslope precipitation patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 of course, all i'lm saying is those areas in n bristol and norfolk and over to medway millis are in 4-6 and 6-8 (6-8 n ri to) respectively on box map. just seems to me that the weaker WAA thump would now lean them toward the lower end of forecast where as before it could have lean'd other way. i think it's ok to say "yes that's right" and nobody will jump , i'm just trying to get a read on the trends. not holding anyone over the coals, it just irks me when it seems mets are afraid to say yes, that weenies will splatter of the deep end, or say "storms over" where smarter than that I always throw flags...you know that. But given the range...I think the numbers are ok. Sure maybe someone gets 4" instead of 6". But, I don't see any horrific busts coming. This is a very cold airmass and that warmer air will love upgliding later tonight. Obviously the NAM QPF may be overdone...but when isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 dude....please chill. this is coming and it is going to be a very decent event and for some a major one. enjoy! you will do very well. dude i'm as cool as the other side of the pillow, just trying to articulate a point about a trend, i don't see why people get so work'd up when i'm not and simply asking for clarification on something. its gonna snow tommorrow we all know that. ...sorry for trying to become more informed. I'm happy with 4 inches of slop in march. But if i cant ask on a forum without chill or this and that it's becomes annoying educate your area looks very decent wrt tommorrow pm, your area over to ray's looks like a solid area to take advantage of the better secondary development , even thou more could cash in even south of that line. it will be a fun now cast event wrt secondary precip shield tommorrow pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Woa, I wasn't paying attention to this but did you guys notice the regional DPs are at 0F ! Less in same cases... +2F at others. But wow is that a cold, cold, COLD thermodynamic suggestion heading into this thing... Oh man, with that much high up N... there's no way it's getting about freezing even own in CT - no way. You guys can ZR all you want if you must, but that much hygroscopic cold generation combined with +PP north of the region just will not be overcome. IM possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just weenie after weenie post this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 In answer to Will's earlier question of what were people expeccting (tonight), here's my expectation for my p/c. Is that too much to ask??? Tonight Snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 25. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 2pm. High near 36. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Light northwest wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NAM is cutting way bck on front end thump QPF. Makes sense given radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think you'll do quite well actually. Hope so, but I'm keeping expectations modest for now. A lot of it will depend on how much taint I get and how the front end achieves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I moved here to Lenox in July 2001 and have been living here off and on for the past 12 years as I have a lot of family in this area. When I first moved here from coastal Fairfield County CT, I was initially extremely excited about Berkshire snow climatology, but this was before my meteorology education and becoming acquainted with local snowfall patterns. While still a big step up from my old stomping grounds where 25-30" was the seasonal average, my neck of the woods is not all it's cracked up to be snowfall wise due to shadowing on easterly flow and missing out on some coastals. I've noticed that elevation is not the most important factor in determining snowfall around here. Rather, it's your location relative to the topographic barriers. Case in point, 1K on the east slope is better than 1.5K on the west slope as most cold season precipitation is generated in a pre-warm frontal scenario with easterly flow in the low levels. The easterly upslope flow generates low clouds that can help to enhance precipitation totals there via low level seeder feeder effects where the precipitation particles generated aloft can grow due to accretion as they fall through these low level clouds (Passarelli and Boehme 1983, MWR). The fog often seen on the east slope during easterly flows is a testament to this process. Upslope flow can also increase lift in the midlevels as well by creating a vertically propagating gravity wave. Another thing I've noticed is that the more gently sloped Berkshires are much more efficient at generating upslope precip than the steeply sloped narrow Taconic ridges. I'm not sure why this is, but Passarelli and Boehme suggest that the removal of precipitation from clouds is most efficient when there is a balance between generation and depletion of cloud water content. If low level lift is too strong, the generation rate far exceeds the removal rate, thereby reducing the efficiency of the precip generation. The article I referenced is great read for those interested in SNE upslope precipitation patterns. Thanks, Mithc--I'll have to get that a read. I hope you get more than you bargain for with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I also advise people to look at the ranges for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My only real questionable area is in srn NH regarding those prolific amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My only real questionable area is in srn NH regarding those prolific amounts. Yeah there's no way we're gonna see 16'' out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I also advise people to look at the ranges for snowfall.Nah. Take the high end and add some lollis. I'm leaning 9-13" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My only real questionable area is in srn NH regarding those prolific amounts. I think there are a lot of places up north that are a bit high with numbers to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My only real questionable area is in srn NH regarding those prolific amounts. Questionable in what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NAM is cutting way bck on front end thump QPF. Makes sense given radar. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif that 1am to 7am panel looks solid from Ma border north and given that 850 line position is at 12z and all that precip in ct fell prior 6 hrs...when 0c 850 line was further south (to a degree) , i would think alot of that qpf is snow for at least northern 1/3 of ct. unless there is warm toungue at 8h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 No change to our forecast. 1"-3" southern 1/3 of the state with 3"-5" rest of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM is just going to be a hideous run for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I wonder if RI will sit in that dry slot like the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 33 overcast. NWS just drastically cut snow amounts here, now calling for less than an inch of snow and ip in the point and click, I would imagine they would drop the advisory now? Good luck up there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM is just going to be a hideous run for many areas.Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Questionable in what way? Well it takes a lot to get 12-16"..I don't know if that high end will be reached near places like ASH. I think in order to get that...you'll need a healthy part 2...and I don't know if that will develop quick enough to drop those amounts. Perhaps it does, but just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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