MainePhotog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Gray afternoon AFD looks promising. Taking out mention of mix on immediate coast and bumped up snow amounts. Dryslot and I are both in the 14" - 18" contour at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yep and i am meticulous at measuring...dude its brutal here, even with the blizzard in which the death band looked like it would pivot overhead with those beautiful bright colors that put down the insane totals in ct...right as those bright colors were heading towards enfield they washed right out lol.. we did fine but it was the reason we didn't get those extra eight to twelve inches that areas just south and east of us had...and up to sixteen inches more in the hardest hit area.. 57.7" here... we've been in the screw zone for a couple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Gray afternoon AFD looks promising. Taking out mention of mix on immediate coast and bumped up snow amounts. Dryslot and I are both in the 14" - 18" contour at this time. Like, Smoked, Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yep and i am meticulous at measuring...dude its brutal here, even with the blizzard in which the death band looked like it would pivot overhead with those beautiful bright colors that put down the insane totals in ct...right as those bright colors were heading towards enfield they washed right out lol.. we did fine but it was the reason we didn't get those extra eight to twelve inches that areas just south and east of us had...and up to sixteen inches more in the hardest hit area.. Your area is horrible for snow. When I moved to western Mass the first time (late 90's), I thought getting into Mass was going to give me a lot of snow. It was the infancy of the internet, and I remember trying to find out where I'd get a lot of snow. Dopey me saw how much ORH got from the BOX site. I figured being west of there i was assured of more. Ha! Disaster. So, I subequently moved to ORH to enjoy the snow there. Then to Maine to enjoy more snow there, and then back to western Mass where I do get snow (most years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Gray afternoon AFD looks promising. Taking out mention of mix on immediate coast and bumped up snow amounts. Dryslot and I are both in the 14" - 18" contour at this time. Righteous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just going through Euro now.... Somewhat underwhelmed by qpf on front-end dump Also best commahead stinger limited to NEMA and points north... actually looked better on NAM/GFS In terms of column, 12z clearly ticked colder than 0z so Boston does better in that regard: warmest 850s for Boston 12z: 0z: All in all, 4-6 is a safe forecast for Boston, was hoping Euro would give reason for higher but not there yet. Also see some daytime melting during dryslot Tuesday until secondary deepens, and still not clear how much commahead impact we actually see ala NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NE MA cold tuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just going through Euro now.... Somewhat underwhelmed by qpf on front-end dump Also commahead stinger limited to NEMA and points north... actually looked better on NAM/GFS In terms of column, 12z clearly ticked colder than 0z so Boston does better in that regard: warmest 850s for Boston 12z: 12zeuro850mb33.png 0z: 00zeuro850mb45.png All in all, 4-6 is a safe forecast for Boston, was hoping Euro would give reason for higher but not there yet. Also see some daytime melting during dryslot Tuesday until secondary deepens, and still not clear how much commahead impact we actually see ala NAM/GFS. The trend is there, the Euro went significantly cooler at 12z. A few more ticks and were well over 6 inches at BOS. RPM is already a 7-9 inch event at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 is the euro hvy snow tonite or more moderate, r we getting a wall of WAA snows, when it's weaker per this euro run...is that intensity and or duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm simply not feeling overly excited for my area with regards to this storm. The SE flow implies a classic west slope midlevel warm tongue where areas along the west slope of the Berkshires, Taconics, and Southern Greens will flip to sleet after a few hours of snow to start. The taint could make it as far north as West Arlington, VT or so west of the spine, but not get past Pete in West Chesterfield, MA east of the spine. I'm thinking 4-6", locally 7", for the area from Great Barrington, Pittsfield, North Adams, and up toward Bennington, VT. Areas to the east along and east of the crest of the Berkshires and Greens will do better with an 8-12" event including Pete and MPM. Areas up near Woodford and Wilmington, VT will clean up with a solid 12-16" event, with some local lollipops to 18". Mount Snow and Haystack alway win in a SE flow scenario. I too am not overly impressed with the current radar and am worried about some virga problems later on due to the dry airmass overhead. Dews are still near 0° F across the area right now, which means things may be a little slow to get started tonight. The final outcome for this storm around here will depend on what happens with the developing CCB tomorrow midday. If a lot of it is wasted as sleet on the west slope, I may be hard pressed to get 4-5". This happened with the 12/26/12 storm with the deformation zone the second morning as I was ripping sleet and had only about an inch of snow once it flipped back. Areas along the east slope that hold the cold better should see several inches of new snow tomorrow though with this as they did the morning of 12/27/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The trend is there, the Euro went significantly cooler at 12z. A few more ticks and were well over 6 inches at BOS. RPM is already a 7-9 inch event at BOS i like how the timing of the precip is sort of thump at nite then break after 15z (when daytime temps/insolation/etc) are worst and then perhaps another burst around after 3pm. What are euro 2m temps in boston or ne mass for late pm, anyone have the goods? wondering if this is a deal where rates will get us there from boston N or BL is too marginal i DO NOT like how the overnite snows trend less impressive w euro because that was supposed to be the "high confidence" part of the forecast for alot of us to get solid advisory to borderline warning snows in several hours. we need that snow blitz overnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NE MA cold tuck absolutely i think that area has best potential for bust high, at least compared to NOAA Box map which still has 4-6 in parts of North Shore / Essex Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm simply not feeling overly excited for my area with regards to this storm. The SE flow implies a classic west slope midlevel warm tongue where areas along the west slope of the Berkshires, Taconics, and Southern Greens will flip to sleet after a few hours of snow to start. The taint could make it as far north as West Arlington, VT or so west of the spine, but not get past Pete in West Chesterfield, MA east of the spine. I'm thinking 4-6", locally 7", for the area from Great Barrington, Pittsfield, North Adams, and up toward Bennington, VT. Areas to the east along and east of the crest of the Berkshires and Greens will do better with an 8-12" event including Pete and MPM. Areas up near Woodford and Wilmington, VT will clean up with a solid 12-16" event, with some local lollipops to 18". Mount Snow and Haystack alway win in a SE flow scenario. I too am not overly impressed with the current radar and am worried about some virga problems later on due to the dry airmass overhead. Dews are still near 0° F across the area right now, which means things may be a little slow to get started tonight. The final outcome for this storm around here will depend on what happens with the developing CCB tomorrow midday. If a lot of it is wasted as sleet on the west slope, I may be hard pressed to get 4-5". This happened with the 12/26/12 storm with the deformation zone the second morning as I was ripping sleet and had only about an inch of snow once it flipped back. Areas along the east slope that hold the cold better should see several inches of new snow tomorrow though with this as they did the morning of 12/27/12. I think you'll do quite well actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the look of the radar was making me nervous since this morning...lol if the euro is cutting back on qpf for the front end..uh oh...lol and while i will probably get stung by a few bees this summer i bet i don't get stung tomorrow lol there is no chance of all that convection robbing us out of snow on the front end right????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think radar will look rather meager until very late tonight until it blossoms a bit more. It probably will expand this evening, but I don't think it really organizes until very late tonight. The real good forcing doesn't get here until tomorrow so I'm not surprised the euro cut back a bit on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 absolutely i think that area has best potential for bust high, at least compared to NOAA Box map which still has 4-6 in parts of North Shore / Essex Co that will be changed when new maps come out in an hour or so. Extrapolating gray's map into NEMA would yield a foot + for parts of essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 i like how the timing of the precip is sort of thump at nite then break after 15z (when daytime temps/insolation/etc) are worst and then perhaps another burst around after 3pm. What are euro 2m temps in boston or ne mass for late pm, anyone have the goods? wondering if this is a deal where rates will get us there from boston N or BL is too marginal i DO NOT like how the overnite snows trend less impressive w euro because that was supposed to be the "high confidence" part of the forecast for alot of us to get solid advisory to borderline warning snows in several hours. we need that snow blitz overnite I am really bummed about this. Not sure what the real impact is, but what's been described has been disheartening--i've started to lower my expectations. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It will certainly be interesting tracking the precip holes and lulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 What were ya'll expecting on the front end...like 12"? lol. You'll do fine if you keep reasonable expectations. You aren't getting 1-2" from the front end either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 What were ya'll expecting on the front end...like 12"? lol. You'll do fine if you keep reasonable expectations. You aren't getting 1-2" from the front end either. It's MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Gray afternoon AFD looks promising. Taking out mention of mix on immediate coast and bumped up snow amounts. Dryslot and I are both in the 14" - 18" contour at this time. And I'm in 10-14, about 10 miles north of the darker pink. We'll see if the Route 2 snow deflector means a nice 7-8" event at my place while falling farther behind the rest of the Maine posters, or whether this event can break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am really bummed about this. Not sure what the real impact is, but what's been described has been disheartening--i've started to lower my expectations. lol it's certainly a caution flag in my mind and it seems like mets may try to jump in and say "hey hey don't panic" (edit yes just in time) but nobody's panicking just pointing out that a time which seem'd the most likely for most of us to cash in on 4-6 (i.e 1am to 8am) ..is tickin less impressive. And if were trading that for more of a secondary, well then this seems like more rolling of the dice and bad news for those who were forecast to get majority of snow from initial WAA snows. i think it was really folks west and NW of boston who were likely to get in on secondary snows so i guess for them it could be a good trade off...but really not for those in bristol/norfolk/ over millis, medway , Rhode island, etc. again if i am reading between the lines correctly. i hope some give respsect that WE are capable of critical thought and saying this tick'd somewhat less impressive in some ways but were not bridge jumping just stating /asking for comfirmation of facts. that is one issue that sometimes irks me here. Will i think most North of pike expected 4-6 from WAA snows. perhaps 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I've only had 30 inches down here. I know this area is a snow catastrophe but in my years I never remember such a disparity that I've seen the last decade. Even though this winter produced a lot of low impact fluff jobs and the late December storm only gave my back yard 2 inches...the February blizzard was a fun one despite getting the lowest total in the area because Newport never, ever gets a prolonged wet snow bomb and the 14 inches I had was a lot more fun than the December 09 19 inch fluff-job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 it's certainly a caution flag in my mind and it seems like mets may try to jump in and say "hey hey don't panic" (edit yes just in time) but nobody's panicking just pointing out that a time which seem'd the most likely for most of us to cash in on 4-6 (i.e 1am to 8am) ..is tickin less impressive. And if were trading that for more of a secondary, well then this seems like more rolling of the dice and bad news for those who were forecast to get majority of snow from initial WAA snows. i think it was really folks west and NW of boston who were likely to get in on secondary snows so i guess for them it could be a good trade off...but really not for those in bristol/norfolk/ over millis, medway , Rhode island, etc. again if i am reading between the lines correctly. But those areas you mentioned were never supposed to get a ton of snow anyways. I do question the 18" amounts near the NA/NH border. I'm not so sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 What were ya'll expecting on the front end...like 12"? lol. You'll do fine if you keep reasonable expectations. You aren't getting 1-2" from the front end either. I'm expecting the 4-8" that's in my forecast and the 12-16" total that's in my forecast. Is that too much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Like I said...I wouldn't worry much about radar for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am really bummed about this. Not sure what the real impact is, but what's been described has been disheartening--i've started to lower my expectations. lol i just got to a computer and checked the Euro QPF. The front end is 5-8'' before the stinger...we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm expecting the 4-8" that's in my forecast and the 12-16" total that's in my forecast. Is that too much to ask? You'll get 10-12" easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 dude....please chill. this is coming and it is going to be a very decent event and for some a major one. enjoy! you will do very well. it's certainly a caution flag in my mind and it seems like mets may try to jump in and say "hey hey don't panic" (edit yes just in time) but nobody's panicking just pointing out that a time which seem'd the most likely for most of us to cash in on 4-6 (i.e 1am to 8am) ..is tickin less impressive. And if were trading that for more of a secondary, well then this seems like more rolling of the dice and bad news for those who were forecast to get majority of snow from initial WAA snows. i think it was really folks west and NW of boston who were likely to get in on secondary snows so i guess for them it could be a good trade off...but really not for those in bristol/norfolk/ over millis, medway , Rhode island, etc. again if i am reading between the lines correctly. i hope some give respsect that WE are capable of critical thought and saying this tick'd somewhat less impressive in some ways but were not bridge jumping just stating /asking for comfirmation of facts. Will i think most North of pike expected 4-6 from WAA snows. perhaps 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 And I'm in 10-14, about 10 miles north of the darker pink. We'll see if the Route 2 snow deflector means a nice 7-8" event at my place while falling farther behind the rest of the Maine posters, or whether this event can break through. Still time to bump those amounts further north. 12 to 16 hours to go time and another run of 0Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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