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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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Rollo! Welcome back.

You'll get back into things quickly, an active 10 days ahead (another piece of energy swinging around same ULL Thursday, some sort of monster coastal signaled Mon-Wed next week)!

 

Some thoughts for tomorrow:

1) very reasonable forecast, from David Epstein's blog on Boston.com

 

2) for much of SNE, a 2 part deal with front end thump (most certain) and then commahead/CCB (esp NE MA, less certain for Boston, we'll see if Euro ticks more SE and sooner with secondary development tonight). Most of front-end dump is complete and we are in dryslot by time 925/850s warm in Boston.

 

3) 1st part front-end dump starts overnight-predawn Tuesday AM... should accumulate immediately even in Boston metro

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The NAM, and to some extent the GFS, have been showing a kind of 2 parter deal with the precip fields. We all get in on the thump... then a break Tuesday morning... followed by the follow up wave of moisture that blossoms into the comma head/cold conveyorbelt. Sort of a weird look. 

EC and UK are similar and also supportive of a two parter type system. I can see an approx 6 hour break or in between the 2 "events"

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I'm not sure of the date-stamp on this, but I approve of this.  Really shows the whallopping that PF-Dendrite-Jeff-Eric have in store!

 

Crushed.

 

And really I don't think mix is too much of a threat save for coastal NH and York County, ME. Maybe Cape Elizabeth tickles the coastal front for a couple hours, but I think PWM sits on a 20 degree wind direction and around 30 for a temp during the good stuff. Ageostrophic flow up through H9 is all northerly drain (except for the NAM and even then it's only southern areas where it turns onshore). The GFS and Euro are both quite northerly with ageostophic flow right down into NE Massachusetts.

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Albany's really sticking to it's guns with a lot of taint even into Northern Berkshire.  Good front-end hit tonight, but here's the ZFP for N Berkshire County tor Tuesday:

 

Tuesday: Freezing rain. Sleet or snow in the morning...then snow or rain and sleet in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one tenth of an inch. Highs in the upper 30s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph...decreasing to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent

 

Final accum's in their warning is 4-8".

 

Compared to the other side of the hills with BOX western Franklin, same front-end dump but no tainting:

:

Tonight: Snow...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Not as cool with lows in the mid 20s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Cold with highs in the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph...becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
 

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