dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 and more QPF too Yes, Usually the Nam is the wettest model, This system so far it has been the Euro, Looks like its ramping up the qpf @0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 That'll make PF rest a little easier, lol. He is fine as well as you on this one, Its a great track for you guys there, This should satisfy his lack of synoptic snow fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NAM really shows the secondary starting to crank....though it doesn't really matter what the NAM shows. Its a useless model at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Starts cranking in the GOM 8mb difference from 18z but its the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NAM really shows the secondary starting to crank....though it doesn't really matter what the NAM shows. Its a useless model at this range. Pretty useless at any range... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Dude, you up in Maine?yep car bomb cupcakes, made from Guinness and Baileys Irish Creeme, oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Pretty useless at any range... lol Its ok inside 24h. Its almost unusable outside that range these days though. Its really a convection model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Noyes going from conservative: "I won't be back in the weather center until Monday afternoon, but when time allows, I like to grind out a "rough draft" of snowfall expectations so I know what I'm walking into. With my little guy asleep Sunday night, I had some time to crunch the numbers...I love the numbers Tim Kelley has been airing on NECN this eve (no surprise, there!)...looks like a solid foot for the mountains of VT, NH and ME. Other numbers I crunch, subject to change Mon PM when I'm in front of the bells and whistles...Boston 4-5" before changing to rain (*may* nudge that down slightly Monday, depending upon precise wind direction forecast), Worcester 6", Lawrence 5", Hartford 4", Springfield 4.5", New Haven and New London 2", Providence 3", Cape Cod nothing outer/1.5" west, Concord NH 8.5", Portland 10", Bangor 10", Burlington VT 8". Key players are timing of snow to mix/rain line, and how much downsloping limits precipitation on Western side of Green Mountains."-From FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Noyes going from conservative: "I won't be back in the weather center until Monday afternoon, but when time allows, I like to grind out a "rough draft" of snowfall expectations so I know what I'm walking into. With my little guy asleep Sunday night, I had some time to crunch the numbers...I love the numbers Tim Kelley has been airing on NECN this eve (no surprise, there!)...looks like a solid foot for the mountains of VT, NH and ME. Other numbers I crunch, subject to change Mon PM when I'm in front of the bells and whistles...Boston 4-5" before changing to rain (*may* nudge that down slightly Monday, depending upon precise wind direction forecast), Worcester 6", Lawrence 5", Hartford 4", Springfield 4.5", New Haven and New London 2", Providence 3", Cape Cod nothing outer/1.5" west, Concord NH 8.5", Portland 10", Bangor 10", Burlington VT 8". Key players are timing of snow to mix/rain line, and how much downsloping limits precipitation on Western side of Green Mountains."-From FB I find 4.5" Springfield/ 3" PVD and only 6" ORH a little bit hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 nam just crushes central E mass (n of ri border) over thru S NH 1am to 7am tomm nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I find 4.5" Springfield/ 3" PVD and only 6" ORH a little bit hard to believe. there are other outlets showing a much more latitudinal graident on this storm than elevation. orh would have better ratio's i'd think but i heard harv say 6-10 orh 10-14 mht (i.e latitude rules) but it seems latitude might not matter to much until you get toward like andover north (per box map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM, and to some extent the GFS, have been showing a kind of 2 parter deal with the precip fields. We all get in on the thump... then a break Tuesday morning... followed by the follow up wave of moisture that blossoms into the comma head/cold conveyorbelt. Sort of a weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How is Noyes going for 4-5 BOS and 6 ORH? ORH may easily double the BOS number. Nam 925 is really cold. This thing is still trending and in a good way. I'm starting to think this over performs. Not that it matters but nam with a several inch thump Thursday morning for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM, and to some extent the GFS, have been showing a kind of 2 parter deal with the precip fields. We all get in on the thump... then a break Tuesday morning... followed by the follow up wave of moisture that blossoms into the comma head/cold conveyorbelt. Sort of a weird look. It shows that little nuke at the end of the run again...esp for eastern areas. It will be interesting to see if other 00z guidance picks up on this. Can't believe how cold it looks during that too...like -10C 850 temps with sfc temps in the 20s...little powder bomb? A bit OT from this storm though....but same ULL actually that produces it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 The NAM, and to some extent the GFS, have been showing a kind of 2 parter deal with the precip fields. We all get in on the thump... then a break Tuesday morning... followed by the follow up wave of moisture that blossoms into the comma head/cold conveyorbelt. Sort of a weird look. Looks like a better part 1 for you guys south and a better part 2 when the secondary gets going up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It shows that little nuke at the end of the run again...esp for eastern areas. It will be interesting to see if other 00z guidance picks up on this. Can't believe how cold it looks during that too...like -10C 850 temps with sfc temps in the 20s...little powder bomb? A bit OT from this storm though....but same ULL actually that produces it. LOL I know. The Euro had it yesterday so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This winter will not go gently into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yep car bomb cupcakes, made from Guinness and Baileys Irish Creeme, oh my Nice! Bomb on, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How is Noyes going for 4-5 BOS and 6 ORH? ORH may easily double the BOS number. Nam 925 is really cold. This thing is still trending and in a good way. I'm starting to think this over performs. Not that it matters but nam with a several inch thump Thursday morning for Boston. The 925mb temps are def a red flag...and not just because the NAM shows it (it would be tossed if it was alone in that)...Euro had a hard time getting the 0C 925mb line north of BOS. Sometimes this can signal the models being a bit too aggressive with the ML warm punch. It def prob means they are a bit too warm at the sfc...so either more snow, or Kevin gets pelted with an extra cold sleet bomb, lol. But the cold will at least help letting all of the initial thump stick....this isn't wasting 0.25" of qpf on 33-34F wet snow...this stuff is going to stick as soon as it starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This winter will not go gently into the night. good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 big euro run tonite IMO. last nite tick'd NW ..this pm tick'd SE.....like to see that 925 0c line stay put or tick se again. euro weenie maps show that nice deform band with deepening secondary at hr 57 for extreme NE mass. shows ray to haverhill get'n smoked in that 3hr period . did notice the weenie maps 3hr qpf periods from 12z run were not as intense wrt to waa qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS is warmer I stand corrected. Was warmer for W CT and E NY but has actually ticked colder by 12z Tuesday for RI/Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 0z RGEM There's more to go in NNE as well as the secondary gets going. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 rgem has sharp cutoff in melt'd snow qpf from Central berks over to S monads and even (20 miles s of MHT) ...from there north 1.75 to 2 inches melt'd qpf (1.5 just s of mht) and much less to the south of that line....but near Warning amounts .60 from 128 over to near .75 orh. well see how well the resolution is on this...but has look of mid levels warming from N orh to KFIT to LWM....bc amounts increase sharply a bit north of that line per RGEM 0z gfs shows how close NE mass is to getting back to snow on that deform band ...perhaps they cash in during late pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS looks to be suffering from some feedback issues around h45. The low will not escape that far east, then magically capture back into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It shows that little nuke at the end of the run again...esp for eastern areas. It will be interesting to see if other 00z guidance picks up on this. Can't believe how cold it looks during that too...like -10C 850 temps with sfc temps in the 20s...little powder bomb? A bit OT from this storm though....but same ULL actually that produces it. 00z GFS is weaker with the Thursday storm, and keeps it offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 00z GFS is weaker with the Thursday storm, and keeps it offshore... bit ot as well but gfs 180-192 hr cold qpf bomb just south of us this airmass is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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