CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Man......I never thought I'd see this level of stupidity here.... I understand what they mean...I'm just trying to clarify. Urban Heat Island will cause temps to be warmer. Perhaps they mean in the burbs, the ground is colder at night so snow may accumulate easier at a temp like 33F with a colder ground temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Sometimes you'll see a bouy get a couple of degrees warmer during the day under full sun, but then drop right back at night. SSTs in March are the last thing on my mind, honestly. Well, yeah. The temps are recorded at 1-2m below the surface so on a warm day that'll happen. Even in the summer a buoy temp will go from like 67 in the morning to 71 in the afternoon under full sun. I'm not really concerned with SST's, moreso with the track of the actual 850/sfc lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well, yeah. The temps are recorded at 1-2m below the surface so on a warm day that'll happen. Even in the summer a buoy temp will go from like 67 in the morning to 71 in the afternoon under full sun. I'm not really concerned with SST's, moreso with the track of the actual 850/sfc lows. Yeah it's more about those features and all around low track..cold air supply etc. Should be a fun event anyways. I think this may have a few surprises. I feel like the areas near HubbDave and regions near the NH border could really get hit good. As that low deepens, it looks like the comma head will try to get going closer to that latitude of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Man......I never thought I'd see this level of stupidity here.... lol what? He may not have articulated it well but it seemed obvious what he was getting at. The suburbs will do much better accumulations at 33F than NYC just due to the surfaces available to accumulate on (ie more grass) and a colder ground temp. I bet his soil temps are a good deal colder than within NYC proper due to previous past UHI effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I understand what they mean...I'm just trying to clarify. Urban Heat Island will cause temps to be warmer. Perhaps they mean in the burbs, the ground is colder at night so snow may accumulate easier at a temp like 33F with a colder ground temp. Yeah the soil temps are likely much colder in outlying areas. Thus, easier accumulations. Pavement temps may even be colder, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 lol what? He may not have articulated it well but it was obvious what he was getting at. The suburbs will do much better accumulations at 33F than NYC just due to the surfaces available to accumulate on (ie more grass) and a colder ground temp. I bet his soil temps are a good deal colder than within NYC proper due to previous past UHI effects. Oy vey..,I thought you had a brain..... We made it clear it was in equal conds. Road accumulations don't change. Neither does Central Park.....where official obs are and an urban oasis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jerry's having board rage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jerry's having board rage Lol....you're next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 OKX out to lunch? This map makes no sense, I highly doubt that interior New Haven county is going to see less than an inch and I'm going to see 3". One of the things that drives me crazy is that their maps try to be way too accurate, just do a range for an area and leave at that, otherwise, you get an ugly mess like this. They also seem to be going very conservative, although yesterday they tossed every single model but the GFS, so not entirley suprised. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Oy vey..,I thought you had a brain..... We made it clear it was in equal conds. Road accumulations don't change. Neither does Central Park.....where official obs are and an urban oasis. Haha guess I missed that. Just thought it was a little harsh towards skisheep. But soil temps have a big difference... so if Central Park has been seeing UHI effects for days and generally has a higher soil temp in the top couple feet, the suburbs will accumulate better at equal temps. I accumulate better at 36F than 33F anyways, so the discussion is moot up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 So this is a map of dynamic tropopause and also 925mb potential temp. To keep this simple, the dark blues approaching SNE show the tropopause height really getting quite low...below 450mb. All the while, you can see a warm tongue approaching and wrapping in from the east into low pressure. I wonder if we see explosive cyclogenesis take place near the latitude of BOS. Usually the combo of these two lead to very dynamic things. Now, the "fuel" in terms of SSTs are quite chilly so that will be a limiting factor, but it is pulling up warmer air...it's late March afterall. I'm wondering if we see the models start to hint at this. It's just something to watch anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Skisheep handled it best btw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 So this is a map of dynamic tropopause and also 925mb potential temp. To keep this simple, the dark blues approaching SNE show the tropopause height really getting quite low...below 450mb. All the while, you can see a warm tongue approaching and wrapping in from the east into low pressure. I wonder if we see explosive cyclogenesis take place near the latitude of BOS. Usually the combo of these two lead to very dynamic things. Now, the "fuel" in terms of SSTs are quite chilly so that will be a limiting factor, but it is pulling up warmer air...it's late March afterall. I'm wondering if we see the models start to hint at this. It's just something to watch anyways. GFSTS_NA2013031712F060.gif I could def see this nuking pretty quickly as it gets to the Cape and goes NE....I was wondering earlier if a good chunk of MA even sees a quick flip back to +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro ens were colder I hear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I could def see this nuking pretty quickly as it gets to the Cape and goes NE....I was wondering earlier if a good chunk of MA even sees a quick flip back to +SN. I could see that especially from ORH up through the 495 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I could def see this nuking pretty quickly as it gets to the Cape and goes NE....I was wondering earlier if a good chunk of MA even sees a quick flip back to +SN. It's certainly an interesting thing to think about. I do think brief rapid intensification is possible in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 StormTotalSnowFcst.png Crushed, Just got back from GYX office chilin out with eckster and met Ginx great guys, Euro was spitting out close to 19" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro ens were colder I hear? I don't think it was that noticeable..but perhaps a tiny hair colder. It's really not relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 OKX out to lunch? This map makes no sense, I highly doubt that interior New Haven county is going to see less than an inch and I'm going to see 3". One of the things that drives me crazy is that their maps try to be way too accurate, just do a range for an area and leave at that, otherwise, you get an ugly mess like this. They also seem to be going very conservative, although yesterday they tossed every single model but the GFS, so not entirley suprised. -skisheep The NWS does a lot right but these snowfall maps aren't one of them. There is zero consistency between shifts, zero consistency between offices, and they're prone to wild swings and sometimes are so confusing they're unreadable. Another issue is that in some cases they're being released so early with deterministic forecasts (i.e. New Haven 0.3") that they're virtually worthless. Albany and GYX seem to do a better job with there maps... but if I put out accumulation maps with the kind of swings and looks that the NWS maps have I'd be out of a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Northern southern CT counties under a watch from OKX, makes no sense considering the maps they put out for both snow and ice. Maybe a monkey actually was doing the maps as I mentioned in NYC forum? -skisheep Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013...LATE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION...CTZ005>008-180415-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.130318T2200Z-130319T1400Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING.* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING...COULD RESULT IN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IS SOME LOCATIONS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It's certainly an interesting thing to think about. I do think brief rapid intensification is possible in the GOM. Absolutely. This is why New England does so well because of its geography. The low static stability over the Gulf Stream and the inherent baroclinicity can really work magic on a synoptic setup where the best forcing is trying to drive the primary so far west. Instead we have competing forces with more modest QG forcing producing more substantial lift and pressure falls off the coast thanks to the low static stability. Thank God we don't live in Pittsburgh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NWS does a lot right but these snowfall maps aren't one of them. There is zero consistency between shifts, zero consistency between offices, and they're prone to wild swings and sometimes are so confusing they're unreadable. Another issue is that in some cases they're being released so early with deterministic forecasts (i.e. New Haven 0.3") that they're virtually worthless. Albany and GYX seem to do a better job with there maps... but if I put out accumulation maps with the kind of swings and looks that the NWS maps have I'd be out of a job. BOX is usually OK as well, not great, but acceptable. OKX has not been having a good winter, they have busted low on every snow event at go time, and put out a few absurd maps 72 hours in advance in late january for 6", which then got cut down to coating-1" before the event. Their temps have also been too high for every event, to the point where I'm tossing them in favor of the mets and posters here. Even the WSW and the map make no sense, if they were going to use their map, I'd be under a WSW, and the areas that are wouldn't. Just bizzare... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 watches now up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 StormTotalSnowFcst.png they tossed a watch too 322 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 ...LATE WINTER SNOW STORM HEADED TOWARD MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE....AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTMONDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY ANDTUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE... THE PRECIPITATIONMAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. .... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATETUESDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.* TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.* IMPACTS...POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE IN HEAVY WET SNOW IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE OR LESS EXPECTED IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Love the coordination... BOX mentions a trace of ice for Hartford County and OKX mentions up to 1/2 inch ice accretion for the neighboring county to the south. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 WSW .. AWT. Lean cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 BOX issued watch for entire CWA except SE MA and S RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 411 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY MON NIGHT AND TUE... .A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LIKELY DELIVERING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND THEN ALL RAIN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH PRECISE SNOWFALL TOTALS. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXCLUDING COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF ICE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY WEATHER DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAZ005-006-008>012-014-180415- /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0007.130319T0300Z-130319T2200Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD... MILFORD...WORCESTER...CAMBRIDGE 411 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS FROM SPRINGFIELD TO WORCESTER INTO METRO WEST GREATER BOSTON. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND ICE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 9 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. * TIMING...BEGINS LATE MON EVENING THEN ENDING LATE TUE. * IMPACTS...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...1/2SM OR LESS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 would love to bump this map south http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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