Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Really have to like the colder/SE trends today . There might be room for one more move SE tonight at 00z. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 2-4" is what I'm thinking right now, maybe we get lucky and see 5", but I think the 6-8" that UKIE/GGEM/RGEM have here is way off. -skisheep Thats what I'm thinking for the CT coast right now. I'll issue a map later, but right now 1-2" NYC, 2-4" southern CT, 4-8" northern CT with IP after the snow. 8-12"+ ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 There may be a decent deform band out our way Tuesday evening. Thinking you may be a secondary max in NNE with it...Maybe even over toward me as winds lock in northeasterly. Was thinking about that somewhere between you and me. Something that pops up over me but really strengthens out over the NE Kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro prob gives you 2-4 or there abouts. Nice, anything down here is a bonus to the 12"+ that Lake Placid and ski country is looking at, so if the magic wizard came up and said you can have 3" right now no questions asked or press your luck for something more, I'd take the 3" in a heartbeat. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does any of this make it back to our snow hole in eastern/central NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Thats what I'm thinking for the CT coast right now. I'll issue a map later, but right now 1-2" NYC, 2-4" southern CT, 4-8" northern CT with IP after the snow. 8-12"+ ORH. Sounds about right... I could see another inch or two on those totals for CT and NYC, but it would have to be a colder solution like the GGEM, which I'm not ready to bite on yet. I'll probably try my hand at a map, see if I can get to a .500 average(I don't think a single zone on my map for 3/8 didn't bust...). -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Was thinking about that somewhere between you and me. Something that pops up over me but really strengthens out over the NE Kingdom. Yep. Between you and me (and the board,lol) this is the best I've felt about snow in the NEK in a LONG time (3/7/11). Perfect evolution to reduce shadowing. Places that don't get shadowed (North Conway, Fryeburg, SW ME) could see 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Does any of this make it back to our snow hole in eastern/central NY? In a word, yes. Here's ALY's latest map. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Sounds about right... I could see another inch or two on those totals for CT and NYC, but it would have to be a colder solution like the GGEM, which I'm not ready to bite on yet. I'll probably try my hand at a map, see if I can get to a .500 average(I don't think a single zone on my map for 3/8 didn't bust...). -skisheep Lol, map making is an art. It's tough to get it perfect. If you did it perfectly, everyone would be a MET haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Really have to like the colder/SE trends today . There might be room for one more move SE tonight at 00z. We'll see Unless it jackpotted SE MA. Then there would be ticks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Solid wwa for ct trending to www in mass. Cool. Cne nne fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 In a word, yes. Here's ALY's latest map. -skisheep Thanks, BGM just got theirs up too, I'm in Otsego county looking at 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Unless it jackpotted SE MA. Then there would be ticks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Solid wwa for ct trending to www in mass. Cool. Cne nne fun times. WSW for all according to CT Blizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Consensus for Boston area? 2-4 and changeover? Or 3-6 front ender and dry slot drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 lol...you're a trip. All of New England is 1"+ of liquid except for a little area in NE CT. Wait....what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Consensus for Boston area? 2-4 and changeover? Or 3-6 front ender and dry slot drizzle? I think 3-5 for you is a decent range. Probably will change over to ra/dz and then dryslot...with maybe a chance of a brief flip to snow at the end. It just depends on how quickly the low intensifies and where it tracks. At least that's sort of my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 My first guess map, I went very conservative for NYC and LI, we saw in the 3/8 scenario that borderline dosen't cut in in NYC, I can accumulate at 33, NYC not so much. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think 3-5 for you is a decent range. Probably will change over to ra/dz and then dryslot...with maybe a chance of a brief flip to snow at the end. It just depends on how quickly the low intensifies and where it tracks. At least that's sort of my first guess. Thanks Scott. That matches my expectations. Maybe we'll get lucky. BOS has a shot at hitting 60 and an outside chance of finishing with 65+. Unthinkable on 2/1 by many myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Thanks Scott. That matches my expectations. Maybe we'll get lucky. BOS has a shot at hitting 60 and an outside chance of finishing with 65+. Unthinkable on 2/1 by many myself included. I know...With any luck I'll be close to 70. If someone told me at the end of January I would have been near that number before April, I would have smacked them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 And now the "Worst Case Scenario", what we all hope happens! (Supported to an extent by 12z GGEM/RGEM/UKIE) I'd put it 80-20% that the other map I posted is closer to the solution, but who knows... I'll try a map for BOX zones later, I don't know all the little nuances of the area, so it will have to be very general. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 My first guess map, I went very conservative for NYC and LI, we saw in the 3/8 scenario that borderline dosen't cut in in NYC, I can accumulate at 33, NYC not so much. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=94298'>firstguess 3 1819 2013.jpg -skisheep Re the bold. The statement makes no sense. If its snowing at equal rates and the neighborhood is similar, you and NYC will not have different outcomes presuming all other factors are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re the bold. The statement makes no sense. If its snowing at equal rates and the neighborhood is similar, you and NYC will not have different outcomes presuming all other factors are the same. That's baaaaaahhhhhhd logic right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 hate to ask the imby question .. but do any mets have any thoughts on the Lowell area for this event? I was thinking 4"-8" of snow to sn/pl to rain, possibly flipping back to snow before ending? The track of the secondary seems favorable for locking in colder air (sub 32) here, but not sure if northeast MA climo would favor this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's baaaaaahhhhhhd logic right there. Skisheep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's baaaaaahhhhhhd logic right there. Even in DC or NC it would be the same. This fetish seemed to take hold with some posters this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Re the bold. The statement makes no sense. If its snowing at equal rates and the neighborhood is similar, you and NYC will not have different outcomes presuming all other factors are the same. I'm in a suburban area, we have trees, lawns, and open space, NYC is basically concrete except for central park. I see your point, but I think the NYC effect is still there to an extent. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's baaaaaahhhhhhd logic right there. lol, it's shaky, but I've noticed it a few times, although meterologically it makes little sense, it just seems to happen... It's also possible that midtown NYC is a degree or so warmer than KNYC in central park, and that's what does it? Now that I think about it, that makes sense... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I can't believe how cold these GFS and NAM soundings are on BUFKIT. It's like I'm looking at a December or January event and it's late March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm in a suburban area, we have trees, lawns, and open space, NYC is basically concrete except for central park. I see your point, but I think the NYC effect is still there to an extent. -skisheep Manhattan. Many NYC neighborhoods are suburban. Your statement implies that it would be impossible to snow to accumulate based on latitude. And trust me, if it accumulates on your Main Street in the business district it will on Broadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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