toller65 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Dryslot, what do you think for PWM, all snow or taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jeezus what a crush job the 12z GGEM is wow Talk to me... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Where are you getting that? I can't even find it on Environmental Canada's site unless its not refreshing properly for me. Its not out on there's yet http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Where are you getting that? I can't even find it on Environmental Canada's site unless its not refreshing properly for me. That model has been a huge hit for several runs with more rapid deepening of the secondary. Should be fun Tuesday afternoon to watch the cloud tops cool and radar blossom. Yeah it's not out on meteocentre yet either, although they usually are slightly delayed. It's cousin, the RGEM, was 4-6" here, hopefully the GGEM follows. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Oh yeah? On the cell. Explain. Nevermind, found it. Wow that's massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Dryslot, what do you think for PWM, all snow or taint? Front end dump maybe some ip/drz on the back end depending on strength and secondary track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 And if you are following this for ski interests, the local knowledge will be that the ski areas will not downslope on a SE flow like some of the models show. It must be grid related as the 4,000ft Spine occupies a relatively small area up and down the state, but the entire northern half of VT isn't going to be downsloped by the Whites like the models show. Sure out by Lyndon and St Johnsbury in the NE Kingdom, but the east slope of the Greens where Sugarbush/Stowe/Jay reside is still a 3,000-3,500ft vertical rise of terrain (with 4,000ft of elevation change on the west side), so a strong H95 SE jet is going to get forced upward. Shadowing won't be too bad once the secondary takes over. I'm actually not too worried right for once haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Looks like anywhere between 8 and 20 mm or so of precip as snow here, hard to tell because the color that's over us for most of the time is 1-3 mm per hour, but just by looking at the storm I'd take a guess that it's on the higher end of that, so say 2 mm per hour for 6 hours plus some light stuff at the beginning and it's probably around 15 mm of precip as snow or so here, than an hour or two of ice, than rain. 15 mm is .6" liquid, so, verbatim, the GGEM is probably 5-7" here, and is now the best case scenario. GGEM is warning criteria for pretty much everyone on this forum, gets taint up past the NH/MA border, but plenty of snow for everyone before that. Massive hit for ski country, Whiteface probably sees it's second biggest storm of the season.(1st was 12-26/27, 24", driving up in that was not a fun experience... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Shadowing won't be too bad once the secondary takes over. I'm actually not too worried right for once haha. Yeah there might be a little downsloping with the intial wave of precip, but if we get significant snowfall it is going to come from that secondary deepening on Tuesday afternoon/evening, and that's more a northeast wind which is fine. That's where you may even be better off being further east and/or northeast, especially if the low is a little slower deepening than models predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z Eukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z Eukie That's precip falling as snow, not storm total precip, correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z Eukie Man dude I am loving these trends of quicker deepening of the secondary. UK now 993 at BOS, GGEM at 988....the deeper the better. None of this NAM 1004mb crap, lol. We spank GFS/GEM/UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's precip falling as snow, not storm total precip, correct? -skisheep No that is 6 (edit: 12 hour precip as others said) hour precip endng at 60 hours...all precip. Unless you think western Cuba is getting a snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's precip falling as snow, not storm total precip, correct? -skisheep 12 hour precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's precip falling as snow, not storm total precip, correct? -skisheep Map indicates it's 12hr Precip. Accum. in mm so that's qpf from hour 48-60 only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Map indicates it's 12hr Precip. Accum. in mm so that's qpf from hour 48-60 only. Maybe I should have looked at the map more closely, Cuba is not getting a foot of snow. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I wonder if the Rt 2 corridor from central MA westerward can stay all snow in this. As the low bombs, it is inserting some pretty good dynamics to halt the progression of the mid-level warm tongue even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I wonder if the Rt 2 corridor from central MA westerward can stay all snow in this. As the low bombs, it is inserting some pretty good dynamics to halt the progression of the mid-level warm tongue even further. I think they're in pretty good shape. Looks like the first thump is all snow and they shouldn't have a problem dynamically cooling as the low goes to town. It could wind up being a hair north over the Monadnocks/Srn Greens but Rt 2 NW of ORH wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Awfully cold airmass going into this storm. Im at 23.5F at 1:30pm under bright sun. Not going to nearly make my forecasted high today. Sun angle is now a late September sun. Off topic but maybe northern lights tonight?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 32F here and sunny skies. Pretty amazing airmass if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 32F here and sunny skies. Pretty amazing airmass if you ask me. We've had colder this time of year, but -14C at 850mb is not very easy to get this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Ya very cold today 30 degrees at 130 on March 17th for southern New England almost unheard of.. Last Easter pushed into the 70s what will this Easter be like. Like I've been saying this has been a long winter by the end of this month it will be 5 full months of mid winter conditions! An extra month or two with a snowy November and snowy March makes all the difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The cold AirMass in place at all levels is gonna do wonders at keeping most places all frozen away from shores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Ya very cold today 30 degrees at 130 on March 17th for southern New England almost unheard of.. Last Easter pushed into the 70s what will this Easter be like. Like I've been saying this has been a long winter by the end of this month it will be 5 full months of mid winter conditions! An extra month or two with a snowy November and snowy March makes all the difference.. Well December acted more like October, lol. At least until around Christmas time when we got some snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro coming out at 2pm is a disgrace...the earlier DST is a killer for mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 @NWSBoston: May be issuing Winter Storm Watches this afternoon for Mon ngt into Tue. Exact locations TBD. Stay tuned! #SNE #NHwx #MAwx #CTwx #RIwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The cold AirMass in place at all levels is gonna do wonders at keeping most places all frozen away from shores I think I-84 goes to rain eventually. Especially before the secondary gets going 18-21z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GGEM is ridic here. The secondary H7/H85 track moves right over MHT and nukes C NH into ME with almost 2" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The GGEM is ridic here. The secondary H7/H85 track moves right over MHT and nukes C NH into ME with almost 2" of liquid. GEM is always a good model if you want to see 2" of liquid....except in the Feb blizzard, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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