SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 There was a storm earlier this year. I think it was just after Thanksgiving.. I could be wrong that brought a similar situation I think. 3-6" then sleet for most.. Kind of surprised many near shore with how much snow we got.. and surprised many up north with how fast sleet moved in.. What do you have for down here? I don't remember a storm after thanksgiving, but I could have been in Lake Placid, so I'm not the most reliable source... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Anyone thinking the warmth will make it to CON area? This thread seems more aggressive/optimistic with people talking about 495/ORH as a northern extreme for changeover vs. my Rain/Snow 34 NWS p&c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Anyone thinking the warmth will make it to CON area? This thread seems more aggressive/optimistic with people talking about 495/ORH as a northern extreme for changeover vs. my Rain/Snow 34 NWS p&c. Enjoy your 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Anyone thinking the warmth will make it to CON area? This thread seems more aggressive/optimistic with people talking about 495/ORH as a northern extreme for changeover vs. my Rain/Snow 34 NWS p&c. Its possible you briefly flirt with a change to sleet...but its mostly a trivial stat...90% or more of the QPF you get will fall as snow, so its really not very significant if it mixes or not there. Might make the roads a little worse if you get a brief period of ZR or FZDZ near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 If its a front end thump...it happens fairly frequently. 12/16/07 tracked over PYM. Very cold BL locked in with strong SW flow overrunning it will probably cause some heavy snow for several hours. I think the interior will have a very hard time going to plain rain in this Only oplaces that come close to plain rain will be far Southern coasts and Se New eng..n and w of 95/495 all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 09z rpm shows 2-4" for all of CT. 4-8" Litchfield ct up north and east into new england. with 6-12+" in hills of mass. most of mass is in 4-6" with more in hills.. i think that is pretty reasonable scenario.. Fresh 12z run brings 6-12" to anywhere along and north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Fresh 12z run brings 6-12" to anywhere along and north of the Pike. Its a cold run..barely gets mixing north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We've seen everything tickle colder rather substantially so far today. I think we'll see the euro do the same..probably close to yesterdays 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We've seen everything tickle colder rather substantially so far today. I think we'll see the euro do the same..probably close to yesterdays 12z run WSW for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 RGEM is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 WSW for all? Yeah I'd be very shocked if BOX doesn't issue WSW with the 4pm package for all of interior SNE..Maybe even to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 RGEM is cold Very cold, it has 4" in NYC on the front end, probably close to warning criteria here. I think it's the coldest solution for here besides the 6z hi-res NAM. Any early read on the GFS? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah I'd be very shocked if BOX doesn't issue WSW with the 4pm package for all of interior SNE..Maybe even to BOS Not to be greedy, but I hope this isnt another CV stinker like the last one.. I think you got about 6x our total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 4-6" here on the latest RGEM, between 10 and 15 mm of front end, probably somewhere in the middle of that. Accumulations as snow in liquid equivilant through 48(It's in milimeters) Also keep in mind this is through 8 AM tuesday, plenty more coming for northern areas. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not to be greedy, but I hope this isnt another CV stinker like the last one.. I think you got about 6x our total! GFS is a bit milder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Big hit for all on RGEM//much colder awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS is a bit milder than 6z. It's actually slightly better for here on the clownmaps (2" at 6z vs 2.5" at 12z), but for most, it's slightly warmer. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z GFS continues a big hit up here. Sweet. That backside banding is pretty solid over VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Regarding the front-end thump for CT. I believe we've seen a similar setup a couple of times this winter. Both times even the coast saw a bit of snow and general accumulations were 2-5 across the state. This looks similar and if anything, perhaps a tick more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Regarding the front-end thump for CT. I believe we've seen a similar setup a couple of times this winter. Both times even the coast saw a bit of snow and general accumulations were 2-5 across the state. This looks similar and if anything, perhaps a tick more wintry. 2-5" locally higher in hills seems like a safe call, might have to be revised up a touch for northern areas if the cold trend continues, but for now totally reasonable. I actually think that right down to LI sound sees 2"+, I'd be suprised if we don't get that. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 er, wish they labeled which run that was. would like to be able to see euro snow maps anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z GFS continues a big hit up here. Sweet. That backside banding is pretty solid over VT. I think this is getting pretty safely in range to lock in a big one for the northern Greens. What a week to return to skiing after a 2 year break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 er, wish they labeled which run that was. would like to be able to see euro snow maps anytime. That was yesterday's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah I'd be very shocked if BOX doesn't issue WSW with the 4pm package for all of interior SNE..Maybe even to BOS I am putting my money behind them issuing a WWA for areas south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The warmer solution aloft of the 00z Euro was disconcerting somewhat... Let me remind folks that a couple of weeks back the Euro busted too cold on an event that prompted winter storm warnings, only to register cold rains for the majority. The NAM was warm in that one, and whether it "got lucky" or not, kicked hiney on that system/event... Oops, the 12z NAM has arrived a tick or two colder than previous cycle(s). In showing both placement of lows and thickness contours slightly S, it is synoptic air apparent as much as in the grids. Meanwhile, the other model types have their own detail headaches of their own... GGEM dynamically goes from rain back to 20 minutes of heavy snow before ending. NOGAPS is just warm S of the NH/VT borders with Mass. 00z Euro discontinuously goes from the 4 cold cycles to a heart render on 00z run .. It seems there are enough distractions going on, none of which can really be trumped by the other, to suggest just holding tight as a recourse. BTW, it is still possible that every model is under-committed with the secondary. In fact, NCEP's MDD talks about that very same thing. There is cold in place and back-built by -NAO deep layer ridge damming down the EC. Meanwhile, a powerful, negative tilt V-max cuts over the dome. This should supply a very intense period of UVM where/when it passes over the elevated slope of the cold dome. That region of lift would cause rapid reduction of sfc pressure, ...probably with some vertically tilted cyclonic structure. Yet the models are wishy washy with this 1000mb business until N of Boston latitudes? That seems underdone given the kinematic here, but we'll see. The trouble is, if more/deeper secondary does in fact result, it will usurp the entire vortex a bit more SE and that has a way of feeding back into other scenarios not even painted in the maps. * * * The period beyond still has an important signal. The 00z GFS latched on big time, though left something to be desired. The recent Euro runs have been showing this, as well. The individual members of the GFS bring an important negative geopotential anomaly through the eastern middle latitudes of N/A, but they all seem to have more like their own idea on how that evolves. We're talking D5+... A lot of this will come down to what ultimately gets relayed off the Pacific through the Pac NW around D4... More than less dynamics being present at that time would conserve a possible wave break event as things are forced to roll up underneath vestigial -NAO. The PNA is still positively factor-able in March and doesn't really lose its correlation (seasonally) until later in April, when all at once the thickness medium seems to dissolve out its gradients every year. We are not there yet.. That said, the PNA is rising through month's end, as the NAO slowly collapses. This really does bring about a deep implication in the east at some point, and seeing these operational runs start toying with the notion like that is intriguing. We may not yet be down with winter post this nearer term event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think this is getting pretty safely in range to lock in a big one for the northern Greens. What a week to return to skiing after a 2 year break. Meso-scale models have me concerned but I'd rather have the globals like the GFS/ECM/GGEM on my side than the NAM/SREFs... especially this winter, lol. What will really make or break this storm for the northern Greens is if we see backside upslope. That's what usually takes these 8-12" storms into that next tier and it can quickly turn into a 14-24 inch event total once you add it all up over 2-3 days if you get an upslope response. The issue with this one is it looks like winds stay more westerly or even southwesterly as the low retrogrades, but even still, synoptic moisture and decent wind flow is going to wring out some snow across the Spine after its shut off pretty much every where else. It just depends on how much gets wrung out... like 1-3" extra or like 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jeezus what a crush job the 12z GGEM is wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jeezus what a crush job the 12z GGEM is wow Oh yeah? On the cell. Explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think this is getting pretty safely in range to lock in a big one for the northern Greens. What a week to return to skiing after a 2 year break. And if you are following this for ski interests, the local knowledge will be that the ski areas will not downslope on a SE flow like some of the models show. It must be grid related as the 4,000ft Spine occupies a relatively small area up and down the state, but the entire northern half of VT isn't going to be downsloped by the Whites like the models show. Sure out by Lyndon and St Johnsbury in the NE Kingdom, but the east slope of the Greens where Sugarbush/Stowe/Jay reside is still a 3,000-3,500ft vertical rise of terrain (with 4,000ft of elevation change on the west side), so a strong H95 SE jet is going to get forced upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Jeezus what a crush job the 12z GGEM is wow Where are you getting that? I can't even find it on Environmental Canada's site unless its not refreshing properly for me. That model has been a huge hit for several runs with more rapid deepening of the secondary. Should be fun Tuesday afternoon to watch the cloud tops cool and radar blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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