Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Let's think logically. How often does a low pressure center track across SE MA and we get a decent snow storm for SNE? If this was the middle of January we would be worried about a flip to rain. It is the middle of March. A flip to rain is likely for almost everyone. Northern NE should cash in very nicely though. And in my opinion they can have it. We have had our fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It's looking like a few inches of snow may fall here pushing total's over 100" YTD followed by rain that washes alot of it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 WBZ's new map looks more logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's mighty generous of you, Where were you handing these out in Jan...............lol Nah.....in January I was praying for snow. Now I just want it to go away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 my dewpt has gone from 15 to 4 in the last 3 hours Nah.....in January I was praying for snow. Now I just want it to go away. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z NAM looks good for us down south folks.. gives a good amount of snow even down to shoreline.. and northern ct looks to stay mostly snow.. speaking of cold.. 10am 25 degrees March 17th after a half inch of snow yesterday wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z NAM looks pretty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Around here NBC4 has 2-4" of snow with possible 5" amounts in spots and a transition over to a mix. WFSB3 has 1-4" here transitioning to rain, while NECN has 2" for this area on their snowfall forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The low was 10 here and 24 now with full sun. It's great having solid frozen ground now instead of a mud fest. 12z NAM looks good for us down south folks.. gives a good amount of snow even down to shoreline.. and northern ct looks to stay mostly snow.. speaking of cold.. 10am 25 degrees March 17th after a half inch of snow yesterday wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z NAM looks good for us down south folks.. gives a good amount of snow even down to shoreline.. and northern ct looks to stay mostly snow.. speaking of cold.. 10am 25 degrees March 17th after a half inch of snow yesterday wow! That would be nice rather than snow-rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z NAM looks good for us down south folks.. gives a good amount of snow even down to shoreline.. and northern ct looks to stay mostly snow.. speaking of cold.. 10am 25 degrees March 17th after a half inch of snow yesterday wow!Still have to watch the warmth above 850 in this situation down there. Definitely a cooler run though, but it's the NAM beyond 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 09z rpm shows 2-4" for all of CT. 4-8" Litchfield ct up north and east into new england. with 6-12+" in hills of mass. most of mass is in 4-6" with more in hills.. i think that is pretty reasonable scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Still have to watch the warmth above 850 in this situation down there. Definitely a cooler run though, but it's the NAM beyond 12hr. yes true I have to check that out with the extractions.. lets see if the NAM can go 2 for its last 2... it nailed yesterdays light snow while no other model was within 300 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think the Euro will tick back a little with the warmth at 12Z. It doesn't seem to be showing enough respect to the cold high and block IMO. Still have to watch the warmth above 850 in this situation down there. Definitely a cooler run though, but it's the NAM beyond 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 with this pattern. many of us from about my area in elevated SW CT to the hills of NE CT to the Worcester Hills have a great shot of 100"+... I'm 10" away and I know many are already close if not over.. What an over-performing season after such a dull period from Nov 8th to Pre-Blizzard Febuary 8th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 for 12z run just based on 850s.. still waiting on 700-800mb.. NAM and Hi-RES would be a 3-6"+ deal for most of CT. 850s don't warm til precip shuts off.. 06z run had a sneaky warm level at 800mb making this minimimal snow and a freezing rain and sleet fest for inland CT as surface stays below freezing for entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM continues to be completely on its own with the secondary development... very weak 1008mb staying southeast of SNE with very slow pressure falls. It continues to do this as it just isn't handling the deep closed system that well. All the meso-scale models are strugging with this for some reason. GGEM/UKMET/GFS/ECM all have had the secondary low as being around 996mb (or lower) passing over SNE into the Gulf of Maine. If you look at the 00z models, the UKMET/GFS/ECM all had like 996mb over ORH-BOS (GGEM had 988mb, probably too strong) If 12z runs of those models continue with a much stronger secondary development and tracking over SNE, the NAM gets tossed as it should, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NAM is a super weenie solution. Very cold on that front thump! Impressive!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM continues to be completely on its own with the secondary development... very weak 1008mb staying southeast of SNE with very slow pressure falls. It continues to do this as it just isn't handling the deep closed system that well. All the meso-scale models are strugging with this for some reason. GGEM/UKMET/GFS/ECM all have had the secondary low as being around 996mb (or lower) passing over SNE into the Gulf of Maine. If you look at the 00z models, the UKMET/GFS/ECM all had like 996mb over ORH-BOS (GGEM had 988mb, probably too strong) If 12z runs of those models continue with a much stronger secondary development and tracking over SNE, the NAM gets tossed as it should, lol. Yeah the NAM solution is pretty funky and it's been doing it for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The NAM is a super weenie solution. Very cold on that front thump! Impressive!! Nam did magnificent with the snow here down south into jersey for several runs yesterday, Ride it, Ride the Nam, SWFE king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Nam did magnificent with the snow here down south into jersey for several runs yesterday, Ride it, Ride the Nam, SWFE king. I dunno this is really a complex synoptic evolution. I think you have to hedge toward the Euro. The Euro is a warm solution and probably not very exciting south of the Pike. Euro is even a flip to rain in many areas south and east of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 with this pattern. many of us from about my area in elevated SW CT to the hills of NE CT to the Worcester Hills have a great shot of 100"+... I'm 10" away and I know many are already close if not over.. What an over-performing season after such a dull period from Nov 8th to Pre-Blizzard Febuary 8th.. We had an 11" snowstorm here on December 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Let's think logically. How often does a low pressure center track across SE MA and we get a decent snow storm for SNE? If this was the middle of January we would be worried about a flip to rain. It is the middle of March. A flip to rain is likely for almost everyone. Northern NE should cash in very nicely though. And in my opinion they can have it. We have had our fun. If its a front end thump...it happens fairly frequently. 12/16/07 tracked over PYM. Very cold BL locked in with strong SW flow overrunning it will probably cause some heavy snow for several hours. I think the interior will have a very hard time going to plain rain in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Deep cold with this one folks. Very cold profile interior never sniffs 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I dunno this is really a complex synoptic evolution. I think you have to hedge toward the Euro. The Euro is a warm solution and probably not very exciting south of the Pike. Euro is even a flip to rain in many areas south and east of ORH. Well the track certainly should give sne pause. Even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 If its a front end thump...it happens fairly frequently. 12/16/07 tracked over PYM. Very cold BL locked in with strong SW flow overrunning it will probably cause some heavy snow for several hours. I think the interior will have a very hard time going to plain rain in this Yeah I agree. I can't see a place like ORH going above 32. Outside of 495 it will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Deep cold with this one folks. Very cold profile interior never sniffs 32 May be tough for Will, but I could see you tickling 34F Tue afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 May be tough for Will, but I could see you tickling 34F Tue afternoon Yeah I think Kevin will get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM is probably the best solution for here since the EURO backed off, clownmap shows around 4-5" or so. According to NYC forum Hi-Res NAM is close to warning criteria down here, although I don't ever remember that model verifying... I'd say toss it, it's the NAM, but it did score a nice coup yesterday getting that event in here which nothing else had, so not tossing it, but it still comes with a large grain of salt. Still think 2-4" here unless something else comes in colder...(The RGEM was 4" for NYC, probably 5-6" or so here, but it has no support except from the NAM) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 There was a storm earlier this year. I think it was just after Thanksgiving.. I could be wrong that brought a similar situation I think. 3-6" then sleet for most.. Kind of surprised many near shore with how much snow we got.. and surprised many up north with how fast sleet moved in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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