dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah, seems 12+ might be good? We can adjust up as we need. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wow. Burbank is bullish tonight. 8-12" from BOS-PVD north and west. 4-8" SE MA. 12"+ N ORH north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 0z GFS is colder up here and SE with the secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 0z GFS is colder up here and SE with the secondary Definitely colder. Sound the alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Wow. Burbank is bullish tonight. 8-12" from BOS-PVD north and west. 4-8" SE MA. 12"+ N ORH north. him and harv are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 For the interior I think colder is the way to go, but as usual..tough call on the coast into a large part of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 For the interior I think colder is the way to go, but as usual..tough call on the coast into a large part of CT. Reasonable call. Any accumulation here is gravy IMO. After last Friday's blitz, I told myself I would be fine if I did not see one more flake. That said, if the EURO is still bullish tonight, time to sound the alarms for even the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Reasonable call. Any accumulation here is gravy IMO. After last Friday's blitz, I told myself I would be fine if I did not see one more flake. That said, if the EURO is still bullish tonight, time to sound the alarms for even the coastal plain. I think so. It;s tough because any little shift means a lot WRT our weather so it's easier for the interior to be bullish. I feel good about some snow with the potential for at least advisory here. Definitely more up where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GFS another tick colder. Really even I don't need too many more ticks down here to be in the game for something signficiant, the EURO as is gives me a low end warning(I'm right on the 6" line on the snowmap), and if the cold trend continues, as it has this entire winter, time to start getting into snow mode. I would think that assuming the EURO dosen't back off that we see watches up for a good chunk of SNE tonight. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think so. It;s tough because any little shift means a lot WRT our weather so it's easier for the interior to be bullish. I feel good about some snow with the potential for at least advisory here. Definitely more up where you are. Coastal areas are really the only areas with concerns based on trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm chucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Good front end dump but the euro is is warmer than 12z by a good bit. At 66, the 850 line in on the north border of massachusetts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 southeast ticks have stopped for now... 0z Euro at 72 hr slp position is tucked in closer to NE Mass... still a good dump esp for SNH / ME but eastern SNE significantly warmer on this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah 00z Euro is much warmer... 850 line gets to the MA/NH border now compared to northern CT on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This is why you can't be throwing those numbers around yet. Have to watch for these warmer bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm thinking 5-10" here, 2-4" BOS. That hasn't changed. What's the Euro show for BOS at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 looking more closely, one big difference in 0z run vs. 12z is downstream h5 low far southeast of Nova Scotia scoots out significantly more east on 0z run... this may be allowing further northwest track of SLP and 850 low centers and consequently significantly more warming at 850 frankly, i was surprised by this given the consistently colder trend of the past 24 hours, but even the Euro can burp still, would be hesitant to throw out the warning-criteria numbers for eastern SNE, yet... 850 temps at their warmest on 12z run vs. 0z run: 12z run --- Boston would probably stay mostly snow, and northcentral CT and points north would be all snow: 0z run --- even ORH flips on this run, and snow totals would be cut in far eastern SNH/ME: meanwhile, not lending any value to this, but RPM similar to 12z Euro and close to Burbank's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro a bit warmer, but most guidance has warning snows around here on the front end before any flip to sleet or ZR. Its good that Jeff has stopped pretending that he wants rain or 60F weather...wasn't really believeable after the 3rd or 4th post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 BTV chucks 'em with prelim numbers of 6-12" valleys and 12-20" mountains..... game on! Monday Night: Snow. Light snow accumulation. Breezy with lows in the lower 20s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.Tuesday: Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Breezy with highs in the upper 20s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.Tuesday Night: Snow. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Lows around 20. Chance of snow near 100 percent.Wednesday: Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Box goes global, leaning blend of 12z-0z Euro which match CMC/UK, tosses NAM/GFS: Relevant excerpts: */Overview and model consensus... Have greatest confidence in the consistent European model (ecmwf) solutions. For the main show...Monday night into Tuesday night...went with a blend of the 16.12z and 17.0z European model (ecmwf)...weighing heavily on the associated fields. The 17.0z Canadian and UKMET are very close to the 17.0z European model (ecmwf) with some small nuances. Am not in agreement with the faster 17.0z GFS/NAM solutions. Feel strong upstream blocking with slow the approach of the storm...with attributable dry air suppressing the onset of precipitation. */Day-to-day details... */Monday night into Tuesday night... Concerning temperatures...both the GFS/NAM show strong northerly ageostrophic motions originating from the departing cold high pressure indicative of cold air damming processes...though both solutions are considerably warmer with respect to the low-level thermal profiles and thicknesses. The 17.0z European model (ecmwf) is warmer than its predecessor...will go with a blend of the two as I am more inclined to follow the colder solution of the European model (ecmwf)...with strong thermal packing along the southern periphery of north Connecticut counties...across northwest Rhode Island...on up and around the I-495 Boston beltway. It will be north and west of this line where frozen precipitation types will be more likely...with more liquid south and east. 2m bias-corrected blend of 16.12z and 17.0z European model (ecmwf) temperatures using accordingly over MOS guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro flips Kevin over by 12z Tueaday while Will is getting engagement pictures with Megan in S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 It would seem reasonable to me that the overnight runs are showing things really locked in. So, no surprise with regard to who the winners will be, and the lines have been more confidently drawn for those of us in SNE. Looks like GC and northern ORH hils will have some IP tainting to keep accumulatinos down a bit, but we'll stilll have some good accumulations I think. South and east of there looks like it could be really pretty messy. Not sure what the Litchfield hills can throw up, but I think ChrisM will be best suited to be there rather than Storrs. THere is is my summary, and I don't anticipate much variation from that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro flips Kevin over by 12z Tueaday while Will is getting engagement pictures with Megan in S+. To ice right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Albany's map is greatly refined from their broad-brushed one from last night. Totals suggest a lot of taint throughout western MA. I'd extrapolate 6-10 for the Pit based on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The taint is closer than it appears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 last night's euro run was the exact reason i have not got emotionally invested...a few inches of snow to a mess..big deal lol i almost bought the whole retrograding thing but these kinds of storms which were much more frequent in days longer ago when ct and esne were not the jack pot zones, almost always always ended up warmer than progged and the heavy snow was in the mtns and north of rt 2 i hope i am wrong but i doubt it this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 The taint is closer than it appears... LOL..nice sig. How long have you had that one in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 To ice right? Probably a pelt fest for a while. I do think you may go above 32 for a little bit, but it's not really much of a factor. Ironically, the 06z GFS looks best right now. After a few ticks SE, the confluence due to the wobbling ULL to our northeast is modeled further away which allows the low to tuck a bit closer. I don't think it matters too much for SNE anyways..maybe some more taint, but areas near you and especially north to Will are locked below 32. Even I think I can grab 2-4 or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 GYX first draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.