SnowMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy, the NAM's really slow. Seems stuck at 36. Thought I might get a glimpse of that prior to bedtime. Becoming less likely.Out to 42 at ncep...stay awake lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM-bien. Isn't that a insomnia med? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This season, I am just waiting for things to shift to screw me again. Just horrible. It could be worse, though--just ask Rick. Or me...I've had a lot of meltdowns this winter watching the fun off to my east. Yesterday's 3" was a nice surprise, but a lot of it melted today in the mid March sun. The snowpack is pretty much gone here, but there are some patches of up to 2-3" glaciated stuff in the woods. I was up around Wilmington, VT yesterday above 2K and they probably have a 25"+ glacier up there that you can walk on. If you jump on it, you fall in past your knees. Sick stuff. I think this next storm will bring decent QPF to GC and most, if not all of it, should be snow. The west slope, especially south of the Pike, may taint briefly, but I still think this a solid 6-10"+ for much of the area the way I see it now unless it suddenly trends warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint Euro barely taints much in Northern Westchester, with almost no plain rain...at 0z Tuesday it still has the 850 0C isotherm in southern NJ whereas the GFS has it to the South Shore of Long Island. Could be a big discrepancy in accumulations between the two models for Westchester/Southern CT/Southern RI given the difference in thermal profiles. My 850s are still -4C on 12z ECM at 0z Tuesday but only -1C on GFS at the same time. I would tend to side with the Euro but we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 0z Nam is a hair colder up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Or me...I've had a lot of meltdowns this winter watching the fun off to my east. Yesterday's 3" was a nice surprise, but a lot of it melted today in the mid March sun. The snowpack is pretty much gone here, but there are some patches of up to 2-3" glaciated stuff in the woods. I was up around Wilmington, VT yesterday above 2K and they probably have a 25"+ glacier up there that you can walk on. If you jump on it, you fall in past your knees. Sick stuff. I think this next storm will bring decent QPF to GC and most, if not all of it, should be snow. The west slope, especially south of the Pike, may taint briefly, but I still think this a solid 6-10"+ for much of the area the way I see it now unless it suddenly trends warmer. That's encouraging to hear from you, Mitch. WRT to snowpack, I had posted to Ginx that I had 0-4" on the ground here. I should have clarified that that was on my lawn. Walk into the woods and you're looking at 3-8". Coming east along the NYS thruwway on Thursday, outside of the LES bands which were dropping several inches, there was bare ground. From west of the CD all the way to North Adams, there was nothing--including Pownal, VT. Nada. Climbing out of the North Adams, the snow began to show up pretty quickly, and by the time you got into Florida, I was seeing what looked like 18". Pretty neat to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Last post since I am still five posted... But NAM at 54 looks has less QPF than 18z at 60 hrs in the Midwest. Not sure if that even means anything for us or is indicative of what to expect. Maybe not since we will be dealing with a secondary low... Yep through 84 nam doesn't look as wet as 18z...imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 0z Nam is a hair colder up here Not down this way--yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy, the NAM's really slow. Seems stuck at 36. Thought I might get a glimpse of that prior to bedtime. Becoming less likely. It's always been slow, but I've noticed recently it's been worse than normal. I usually check the models around 1/2 hour after they initalize, I went to the NAM around 10 last night to see what it had in store for tonight(which was really today, came in quicker than modeled), and was annoyed to only find it out to 18. It's crazy that the GFS, a much more complex model, can bang out 100 hours or so in 30 minutes, yet it takes the NAM 2 hours or so to get out 84 hours. I'd guess it's the NAM's higher resolution, but not sure? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM still gets pingers up into S NH, but the midlevel temps are a hair cooler this run. Nice run for up here through dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not down this way--yikes. Really? Looked better down there then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's encouraging to hear from you, Mitch. WRT to snowpack, I had posted to Ginx that I had 0-4" on the ground here. I should have clarified that that was on my lawn. Walk into the woods and you're looking at 3-8". Coming east along the NYS thruwway on Thursday, outside of the LES bands which were dropping several inches, there was bare ground. From west of the CD all the way to North Adams, there was nothing--including Pownal, VT. Nada. Climbing out of the North Adams, the snow began to show up pretty quickly, and by the time you got into Florida, I was seeing what looked like 18". Pretty neat to see. I took some back roads from Wilmington and noticed the pack was pretty impressive around Savoy and Florida as well with 15-20" in spots near 2K, but it dropped to pretty much nothing in North Adams. That area from Williamstown, MA to Bennington, VT is an absolute pit for snow since they're downsloping off of 3K+ mountains. It's no surprise to me that they look like DCA. The good snow spots around here usually stick out like a sore thumb at this time of year and they're the east facing slopes above 1.5K or so. The difference between Bennington and Woodford on VT 9 is nothing short of dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I took some back roads from Wilmington and noticed the pack was pretty impressive around Savoy and Florida as well with 15-20" in spots near 2K, but it dropped to pretty much nothing in North Adams. That area from Williamstown, MA to Bennington, VT is an absolute pit for snow since they're downsloping off of 3K+ mountains. It's no surprise to me that they look like DCA. The good snow spots around here usually stick out like a sore thumb at this time of year and they're the east facing slopes above 1.5K or so. The difference between Bennington and Woodford on VT 9 is nothing short of dramatic. Woodford is a huge weenie spot for snow. They do better than Wilmington for sure too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Crushed That's been pretty much an ongoing theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's been pretty much an ongoing theme Congrats IZG ... Hvy and hvy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 LOL, NAM snowmap actually makes the CT jackpot me with 2", tolland gets .5". I can virtually guarantee that kevin will get more snow than me from this system, so, the NAM is taking an extended lunch break and is tossed. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Congrats IZG ... Hvy and hvy Coastal taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Woodford is a huge weenie spot for snow. They do better than Wilmington for sure too. Compared to downtown Wilmington, yes, Woodford is better as downtown Wilmington is at 1.5K and Woodford is at 2.3K. However, the part of Wilmington that's up on the east slope of Haystack Mountain above 2K is probably equally good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Coastal taint? Nope, Stay pretty much isothermal thru the column, 0z Nam was colder here then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Nope, Stay pretty much isothermal thru the column, 0z Nam was colder here then 18z Sweet - thanks. Guess I'll put the waders and fly rod away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 just took a peek at euro ens compare to OP. i thought ryan said the lp track look'd the same. And steve said the ens weren't milder? looks like euro ens are significantly SW wrt lp placement 12z tues and they are also + 3 c milder at 850 for me in Ne mass (although perhaps ens @ 72 hrs run milder in cold airmasses. also ens further NW (40 miles)with LP 12z wednesday and milder as well? so euro ens look a tick or two Nw of op and a tickle milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Compared to downtown Wilmington, yes, Woodford is better as downtown Wilmington is at 1.5K and Woodford is at 2.3K. However, the part of Wilmington that's up on the east slope of Haystack Mountain above 2K is probably equally good. Yeah up toward W Dover they do well. I've noticed Woodford on the west side of that plateau upslopes very well. The coop there frequently comes in with more than the summit of Mt Snow. They do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Nope, Stay pretty much isothermal thru the column, 0z Nam was colder here then 18z Still, it's the NAM at like 69 hours. Gotta like having the Euro where it is, though. Looks damn good for several inches at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Still, it's the NAM at like 69 hours. Gotta like having the Euro where it is, though. Looks damn good for several inches at the least. lol, Even the crappiest model crushes us, Usually the Nam has big qpf numbers but its the Euro that has them, It also is stronger with the secondary then the GFS and NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Sweet - thanks. Guess I'll put the waders and fly rod away. Fishing fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 lol, Even the crappiest model crushes us, Usually the Nam has big qpf numbers but its the Euro that has them, It also is stronger with the secondary then the GFS and NAM Eyeing a compromise, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 wrt to snowpack, last sunday when i drove from manchester to bennington nh (crotched mtn) the gradient was pretty sick in new boston / francestown and bennington had well over a foot in exposed spots. new boston near 400-450' had lots of bare spots.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Eyeing a compromise, that's all. 0z Euro holds serve, I am going to lock some numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 0z Euro holds serve, I am going to lock some numbers Yeah, seems 12+ might be good? We can adjust up as we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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