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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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This season, I am just waiting for things to shift to screw me again.  Just horrible.  It could be worse, though--just ask Rick.

 

Or me...I've had a lot of meltdowns this winter watching the fun off to my east. Yesterday's 3" was a nice surprise, but a lot of it melted today in the mid March sun. The snowpack is pretty much gone here, but there are some patches of up to 2-3" glaciated stuff in the woods.

 

I was up around Wilmington, VT yesterday above 2K and they probably have a 25"+ glacier up there that you can walk on. If you jump on it, you fall in past your knees. Sick stuff.

 

I think this next storm will bring decent QPF to GC and most, if not all of it, should be snow. The west slope, especially south of the Pike, may taint briefly, but I still think this a solid 6-10"+ for much of the area the way I see it now unless it suddenly trends warmer.

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I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint

Euro barely taints much in Northern Westchester, with almost no plain rain...at 0z Tuesday it still has the 850 0C isotherm in southern NJ whereas the GFS has it to the South Shore of Long Island. Could be a big discrepancy in accumulations between the two models for Westchester/Southern CT/Southern RI given the difference in thermal profiles. My 850s are still -4C on 12z ECM at 0z Tuesday but only -1C on GFS at the same time. I would tend to side with the Euro but we'll see..

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Or me...I've had a lot of meltdowns this winter watching the fun off to my east. Yesterday's 3" was a nice surprise, but a lot of it melted today in the mid March sun. The snowpack is pretty much gone here, but there are some patches of up to 2-3" glaciated stuff in the woods.

 

I was up around Wilmington, VT yesterday above 2K and they probably have a 25"+ glacier up there that you can walk on. If you jump on it, you fall in past your knees. Sick stuff.

 

I think this next storm will bring decent QPF to GC and most, if not all of it, should be snow. The west slope, especially south of the Pike, may taint briefly, but I still think this a solid 6-10"+ for much of the area the way I see it now unless it suddenly trends warmer.

 

That's encouraging to hear from you, Mitch. 

 

WRT to snowpack, I had posted to Ginx that I had 0-4" on the ground here.  I should have clarified that that was on my lawn.  Walk into the woods and you're looking at 3-8".  Coming east along the NYS thruwway on Thursday, outside of the LES bands which were dropping several inches, there was bare ground.  From west of the CD all the way to North Adams, there was nothing--including Pownal, VT.  Nada.  Climbing out of the North Adams, the snow began to show up pretty quickly, and by the time you got into Florida, I was seeing what looked like 18".  Pretty neat to see. 

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Last post since I am still five posted...

But NAM at 54 looks has less QPF than 18z at 60 hrs in the Midwest. Not sure if that even means anything for us or is indicative of what to expect. Maybe not since we will be dealing with a secondary low...

Yep through 84 nam doesn't look as wet as 18z...imo

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Boy, the NAM's really slow.  Seems stuck at 36.  Thought I might get a glimpse of that prior to bedtime.  Becoming less likely.

It's always been slow, but I've noticed recently it's been worse than normal. I usually check the models around 1/2 hour after they initalize, I went to the NAM around 10 last night to see what it had in store for tonight(which was really today, came in quicker than modeled), and was annoyed to only find it out to 18. It's crazy that the GFS, a much more complex model, can bang out 100 hours or so in 30 minutes, yet it takes the NAM 2 hours or so to get out 84 hours. I'd guess it's the NAM's higher resolution, but not sure?

-skisheep

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That's encouraging to hear from you, Mitch. 

 

WRT to snowpack, I had posted to Ginx that I had 0-4" on the ground here.  I should have clarified that that was on my lawn.  Walk into the woods and you're looking at 3-8".  Coming east along the NYS thruwway on Thursday, outside of the LES bands which were dropping several inches, there was bare ground.  From west of the CD all the way to North Adams, there was nothing--including Pownal, VT.  Nada.  Climbing out of the North Adams, the snow began to show up pretty quickly, and by the time you got into Florida, I was seeing what looked like 18".  Pretty neat to see. 

 

I took some back roads from Wilmington and noticed the pack was pretty impressive around Savoy and Florida as well with 15-20" in spots near 2K, but it dropped to pretty much nothing in North Adams. That area from Williamstown, MA to Bennington, VT is an absolute pit for snow since they're downsloping off of 3K+ mountains. It's no surprise to me that they look like DCA. The good snow spots around here usually stick out like a sore thumb at this time of year and they're the east facing slopes above 1.5K or so. The difference between Bennington and Woodford on VT 9 is nothing short of dramatic.

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I took some back roads from Wilmington and noticed the pack was pretty impressive around Savoy and Florida as well with 15-20" in spots near 2K, but it dropped to pretty much nothing in North Adams. That area from Williamstown, MA to Bennington, VT is an absolute pit for snow since they're downsloping off of 3K+ mountains. It's no surprise to me that they look like DCA. The good snow spots around here usually stick out like a sore thumb at this time of year and they're the east facing slopes above 1.5K or so. The difference between Bennington and Woodford on VT 9 is nothing short of dramatic.

 

Woodford is a huge weenie spot for snow. They do better than Wilmington for sure too. 

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Woodford is a huge weenie spot for snow. They do better than Wilmington for sure too. 

 

Compared to downtown Wilmington, yes, Woodford is better as downtown Wilmington is at 1.5K and Woodford is at 2.3K. However, the part of Wilmington that's up on the east slope of Haystack Mountain above 2K is probably equally good.

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just took a peek at euro ens compare to OP. i thought ryan said the lp track look'd the same. And steve said the ens weren't milder?

looks like euro ens are significantly SW wrt lp placement 12z tues and they are also + 3 c milder at 850 for me in Ne mass (although perhaps ens @ 72 hrs run milder in cold airmasses. also ens further NW (40 miles)with LP 12z wednesday and milder as well? so euro ens look a tick or two Nw of op and a tickle milder.

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Compared to downtown Wilmington, yes, Woodford is better as downtown Wilmington is at 1.5K and Woodford is at 2.3K. However, the part of Wilmington that's up on the east slope of Haystack Mountain above 2K is probably equally good.

 

Yeah up toward W Dover they do well.  I've noticed Woodford on the west side of that plateau upslopes very well. The coop there frequently comes in with more than the summit of Mt Snow. They do really well. 

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Still, it's the NAM at like 69 hours. Gotta like having the Euro where it is, though. Looks damn good for several inches at the least.

 

lol, Even the crappiest model crushes us, Usually the Nam has big qpf numbers but its the Euro that has them, It also is stronger with the secondary then the GFS and NAM

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