SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Intresting choice of models by Upton, the reason they have almost all rain here(3 hours of snow/rain mix monday night), is because they are tossing everything but the GFS. Not sure that's the best decision given it's track record as of late, but they are the pros... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location.yeah I saw that, I always get my East and West mixed up. FYI I totally believe Kev and Coventry 71 totals too, been an epic year above 700 ft from Will to Pete's and South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 ALY the first to try their hand at a map. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 ALY the first to try their hand at a map. -skisheep That would likely put me in their 8-10 area. Not too shabby for a final days of winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 ALY the first to try their hand at a map. -skisheep What is the link to get BOX's map...although I don't think they have put one out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 What is the link to get BOX's map...although I don't think they have put one out yet It's on their homepage, there usually is a headline like significant snow possible or a signficant accumulating snow is forecast for monday night, almost always in all caps. Click on it and it pulls up their snowmap. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 What is the link to get BOX's map...although I don't think they have put one out yet http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ "No Significant Snowfall Forecast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ "No Significant Snowfall Forecast" thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that. BOX AFD seems to be (or at least earlier was) speaking about lower ratios due to daytime (8:1 iirc). What's your take on that, Will? I think things will dryslot--at least in CT--before any big tainting of the front-end would take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that. LOL... I agree... hedge colder. I'm probably 70/30 Euro right now but even that is more icy than snowy in a large portion of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 LOL... I agree... hedge colder. I'm probably 70/30 Euro right now but even that is more icy than snowy in a large portion of CT. I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 LOL... I agree... hedge colder. I'm probably 70/30 Euro right now but even that is more icy than snowy in a large portion of CT. Do you see ice as being a concern for down here? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it. I think it's sort of complex though. It's all how the phase develops to our west and whether we force the secondary too far inland. Not as much of an issue up by you but more borderline here. I went pretty wintry though... snow, heavy at times turning to heavy wintry mix inland for AM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 BarryWBZ: On Tuesday, the potential exists for 1-3" snow by 8am up to 4-8" by 2pm then 8-12" by 8pm near/outside the I-95 corridor from Prov to Boston" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Do you see ice as being a concern for down here? -skisheep No I could see a couple inches of snow though before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it. This season, I am just waiting for things to shift to screw me again. Just horrible. It could be worse, though--just ask Rick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 This season, I am just waiting for things to shift to screw me again. Just horrible. It could be worse, though--just ask Rick. I think you catch a piece of this one mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well I wont stay up for the 00z runs...so perhaps my colder favored solutions will fall by the wayside...but even if they do in the mid-levels, still think at the sfc it will be very cold. Its not your typical March airmass. Nevermind latter March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I think you catch a piece of this one mike Yeah--I'm pretty sure I'll get something reasonable. Just the same, I'd rather be up toward you/Jackson on Tuesday--you're in line to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 No I could see a couple inches of snow though before rain. Good, although ice is cool as wx, in reality, it's a pain in the butt to deal with, and it can cause some serious damage, especially to things such as power lines, which living without is not my idea of enjoyable... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Well I wont stay up for the 00z runs...so perhaps my colder favored solutions will fall by the wayside...but even if they do in the mid-levels, still think at the sfc it will be very cold. Its not your typical March airmass. Nevermind latter March. I agree. I hit ice hard down here. I think the Tuesday morning commute is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah--I'm pretty sure I'll get something reasonable. Just the same, I'd rather be up toward you/Jackson on Tuesday--you're in line to get smoked. Yeah, Models have been hitting up here pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yeah, Models have been hitting up here pretty hard I am planning 8-12 here and adjust up if needed. I think models show that as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I am planning 8-12 here and adjust up if needed. I think models show that as of now. That seems reasonable. Lean toward the lower end until confidence can be gained/lost with the 00z run. Then, ramp up as may well be likely. I'm not staying up for any 00z models, but I fully expect to wake up and find watches up for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 That seems reasonable. Lean toward the lower end until confidence can be gained/lost with the 00z run. Then, ramp up as may well be likely. I'm not staying up for any 00z models, but I fully expect to wake up and find watches up for many. Yeah, Good chance they go up overnight after 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 I am planning 8-12 here and adjust up if needed. I think models show that as of now. That's a good starting point, I am thinking somewhere around 10-12" here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy, the NAM's really slow. Seems stuck at 36. Thought I might get a glimpse of that prior to bedtime. Becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy, the NAM's really slow. Seems stuck at 36. Thought I might get a glimpse of that prior to bedtime. Becoming less likely. lol, Its a 42 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 That's a good starting point, I am thinking somewhere around 10-12" here right nowSimilar here...although I am leaning towards the 10"Take what I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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