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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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Intresting choice of models by Upton, the reason they have almost all rain here(3 hours of snow/rain mix monday night), is because they are tossing everything but the GFS. Not sure that's the best decision given it's track record as of late, but they are the pros...

-skisheep

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I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location.

yeah I saw that, I always get my East and West mixed up. FYI I totally believe Kev and Coventry 71 totals too, been an epic year above 700 ft from Will to Pete's and South
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What is the link to get BOX's map...although I don't think they have put one out yet

It's on their homepage, there usually is a headline like significant snow possible or a signficant accumulating snow is forecast for monday night, almost always in all caps. Click on it and it pulls up their snowmap.

-skisheep

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I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that.

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I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that.

 

BOX AFD seems to be (or at least earlier was) speaking about lower ratios due to daytime (8:1 iirc). What's your take on that, Will?

 

I think things will dryslot--at least in CT--before any big tainting of the front-end would take place.

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I toss the GFS in this setup....hedge colder. Ryan hates my ORH hills forecasting posts when he's trying to warm the CT valley....but this time, hedge colder. CT valley may still suck, but I think even they see some front end snow and possibly more than that.

 

LOL... I agree... hedge colder. I'm probably 70/30 Euro right now but even that is more icy than snowy in a large portion of CT. 

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LOL... I agree... hedge colder. I'm probably 70/30 Euro right now but even that is more icy than snowy in a large portion of CT. 

 

 

I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it.

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I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it.

 

I think it's sort of complex though. It's all how the phase develops to our west and whether we force the secondary too far inland. 

 

Not as much of an issue up by you but more borderline here. I went pretty wintry though... snow, heavy at times turning to heavy wintry mix inland for AM commute.

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I could def be wrong, but it just seems colder is the way to go in this one. It almost has the 12/21/08 appeal to it in that we were certain mix would get to everyone in SNE and then within 48h of the event it was mostly snow and GC was getting screwed....don't expect that extreme, but its a cold looking system where there's multiple moving parts that all seem to favor a trend snowier vs less snowy at the moment. But if it all of the sudden comes in warmer that could screw it.

 

This season, I am just waiting for things to shift to screw me again.  Just horrible.  It could be worse, though--just ask Rick.

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Well I wont stay up for the 00z runs...so perhaps my colder favored solutions will fall by the wayside...but even if they do in the mid-levels, still think at the sfc it will be very cold. Its not your typical March airmass. Nevermind latter March.

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No I could see a couple inches of snow though before rain.

Good, although ice is cool as wx, in reality, it's a pain in the butt to deal with, and it can cause some serious damage, especially to things such as power lines, which living without is not my idea of enjoyable... :)

 

-skisheep

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Well I wont stay up for the 00z runs...so perhaps my colder favored solutions will fall by the wayside...but even if they do in the mid-levels, still think at the sfc it will be very cold. Its not your typical March airmass. Nevermind latter March.

 

I agree. I hit ice hard down here. I think the Tuesday morning commute is ugly. 

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I am planning 8-12 here and adjust up if needed. I think models show that as of now.

 

That seems reasonable.  Lean toward the lower end until confidence can be gained/lost with the 00z run.  Then, ramp up as may well be likely. I'm not staying up for any 00z models, but I fully expect to wake up and find watches up for many. 

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That seems reasonable.  Lean toward the lower end until confidence can be gained/lost with the 00z run.  Then, ramp up as may well be likely. I'm not staying up for any 00z models, but I fully expect to wake up and find watches up for many. 

 

Yeah, Good chance they go up overnight after 0z runs

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