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March 18-20th Fluff Bomb Special


dryslot

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Lol... for some reason this thread did not show up on my phone until now

 

I kept posting 2am 0z Euro runs in the Lions End to March thread and was wondering why it was so dead...!

 

Euro/CMC all we need, I don't even look at GFS anymore this winter, NAM only within 60hrs. Feeling confident in a big SNE/north hit.

 

Aside from how relatively stable Euro has been, what amazes is me is we continue to tick back towards the huge 0z 3/11 solution (a 216hr solution at the time) in terms of timing and placement of secondary low.

 

 

 

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Lol... for some reason this thread did not show up on my phone until now

 

I kept posting 2am 0z Euro runs in the Lions End to March thread and was wondering why it was so dead...!

 

Euro/CMC all we need, I don't even look at GFS anymore this winter, NAM only within 60hrs. Feeling confident in a big SNE/north hit.

 

Aside from how relatively stable Euro has been, what amazes is me is we continue to tick back towards the huge 0z 3/11 solution (a 216hr solution at the time) in terms of timing and placement of secondary low.

Yeah noone does anymore thankfully

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Doubt it. Euro is probably more correct than the other guidance but I imagine we'll see a few ticks warmer and snow over to sleet and freezing rain.

NW Hills will do better though.

I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint
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I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint

 

Wrong as usual. The atmosphere is cold so rain is unlikely. But this really has all to do with how far west the secondary tracks and how quickly it gets going. That's really a function of some of the complex shortwave interaction to our west and where the best height falls/qg forcing sets up.

 

It's certainly possible 6+ is widespread along and north of 84 but I don't think that's the most likely outcome. 

 

I do think it will be a nasty mix with snow to sleet to ice. 

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Really!  That Euro snowfall map posted above has the 12" line all the way down to near hartford, and everything just north of Ct's south coast over WSW type criteria.

I actually think that even here would see 6" on the EURO, I've noticed that those maps are notorious for having a huge gradient right at the coastline, for both the blizzard and 3/8, they had a large cutoff at the coast which didn't really materialize. I think EURO is warning criteria from me northward, but again, that's just my opinion...

 

I'm suprised that Upton barely mentioned snow in my P&C, they have only a few hours of rain/snow mix before heavy rain overnight monday. That seems to go against every model, GFS has around 4", EURO 6", GGEM and RGEM good hits. I haven't seen the UKIE, but it would be suprising if they were tossing GFS/EURO/EUROens/GGEM/RGEM in favor of the UKIE.

Not sure what they are thinking, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, and in daily temps they usually bust warm, it's rare when they are too cold around here. Still plenty on the table, and plenty of time for this to go one way or the other. I don't see this as an all snow event down here(it's close to impossible), but I don't think 6" is out of the question at all, and I think an advisory level front end is likely.

 

-skisheep

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Wrong as usual. The atmosphere is cold so rain is unlikely. But this really has all to do with how far west the secondary tracks and how quickly it gets going. That's really a function of some of the complex shortwave interaction to our west and where the best height falls/qg forcing sets up.

 

It's certainly possible 6+ is widespread along and north of 84 but I don't think that's the most likely outcome. 

 

I do think it will be a nasty mix with snow to sleet to ice. 

I've had a great winter forecasting..There's no getting around that.

 

I will allow the possibility of a tickle with sleet but a change back to snow

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I've had a great winter forecasting..There's no getting around that.

 

I will allow the possibility of a tickle with sleet but a change back to snow

 

Actually, I thought you've had a subpar winter. Some of the greats like Scott and Phil have really been on fire.

 

I certainly don't mind leaning toward the Euro but it is on the colder side of guidance and is the most extreme solution. Even the cold GGEM solution isn't all that great for us in CT if you want snow. 

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Doubt it. Euro is probably more correct than the other guidance but I imagine we'll see a few ticks warmer and snow over to sleet and freezing rain. 

 

NW Hills will do better though.

I'm not sure if it gets warmer, it's been trending colder on every run... The seasonal trend in the short range this winter has been colder as we get closer to the start, I don't see why this would be any different, it's really already begun. You're the met though, so you know more than me, but my guess is that this keeps going colder.

 

I'd put it right now at 30% we see 6" down here, 60% for 4" and 80%" for 2", although of course subject to change. I'd say 5% at best that it's all snow here, 10% all frozen.

-skisheep

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Actually, I thought you've had a subpar winter. Some of the greats like Scott and Phil have really been on fire.

 

I certainly don't mind leaning toward the Euro but it is on the colder side of guidance and is the most extreme solution. Even the cold GGEM solution isn't all that great for us in CT if you want snow. 

As usual don;t agree with much of anything you posted.

 

Phil left the board.

 

I'm off to rip back Guinness for St patty's. 

 

Enjoy the snow

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If any of you have doubts about folks measuring look here at coop data, http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/snowfall.map?view=daily

 

Use the date range and add FYI for you people who have dogged Pete, the Worthington COOP as of last night had 91.9 for the season and thats lower than him and a bit East. Just to let ya know.

 

I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location.

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I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location.

I believe the elevation of that co-op is 1285 ft.

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