powderfreak Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Game on. Chances for wrap around snow showers for the rest of the week after this too. Wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 18z NAM brings pingers all the way up to here. IZG gets walloped. Yeah they do... I'd hit it. Solid 8-14" across pretty much all of CNE and NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Game on. Chances for wrap around snow showers for the rest of the week after this too. Wood. snow.png Perfect timing for a trip up there. Staying in Stowe and hitting up Stowe, MRG, SB and Jay, possibly Smuggs. Loving the afternoon AFD from BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yeah they do... I'd hit it. Solid 8-14" across pretty much all of CNE and NNE... All day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Everybody happy. Happy happy. Enjoy the dump, Ginxy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Lol... for some reason this thread did not show up on my phone until now I kept posting 2am 0z Euro runs in the Lions End to March thread and was wondering why it was so dead...! Euro/CMC all we need, I don't even look at GFS anymore this winter, NAM only within 60hrs. Feeling confident in a big SNE/north hit. Aside from how relatively stable Euro has been, what amazes is me is we continue to tick back towards the huge 0z 3/11 solution (a 216hr solution at the time) in terms of timing and placement of secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Wow what a little nuke on the Euro. Nice. It's still an outlier with the secondary but it has been awfully consistent. Go with all snow..8-12?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 GYX is STILL talking snow to rain along the coast, contrary to most of what I'm hearing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Go with all snow..8-12?? Doubt it. Euro is probably more correct than the other guidance but I imagine we'll see a few ticks warmer and snow over to sleet and freezing rain. NW Hills will do better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Lol... for some reason this thread did not show up on my phone until now I kept posting 2am 0z Euro runs in the Lions End to March thread and was wondering why it was so dead...! Euro/CMC all we need, I don't even look at GFS anymore this winter, NAM only within 60hrs. Feeling confident in a big SNE/north hit. Aside from how relatively stable Euro has been, what amazes is me is we continue to tick back towards the huge 0z 3/11 solution (a 216hr solution at the time) in terms of timing and placement of secondary low. Yeah noone does anymore thankfully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Doubt it. Euro is probably more correct than the other guidance but I imagine we'll see a few ticks warmer and snow over to sleet and freezing rain. NW Hills will do better though. I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 If any of you have doubts about folks measuring look here at coop data, http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/snowfall.map?view=daily Use the date range and add FYI for you people who have dogged Pete, the Worthington COOP as of last night had 91.9 for the season and thats lower than him and a bit East. Just to let ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Perfect timing for a trip up there. Staying in Stowe and hitting up Stowe, MRG, SB and Jay, possibly Smuggs. Loving the afternoon AFD from BTV. Nice! Yeah this AFD is solid. "upwards of a foot or more of snow possible..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Everybody happy. Happy happy. Enjoy the dump, Ginxy! LOl yeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I think it's a statewide 6+ event..maybe pingers get up to the Merritt or something. It's a cold storm in a cold pattern. This isn'tyour typical March storm..This is balls cold from the top down and if it bombs like Euro has it..we don't come near taint Wrong as usual. The atmosphere is cold so rain is unlikely. But this really has all to do with how far west the secondary tracks and how quickly it gets going. That's really a function of some of the complex shortwave interaction to our west and where the best height falls/qg forcing sets up. It's certainly possible 6+ is widespread along and north of 84 but I don't think that's the most likely outcome. I do think it will be a nasty mix with snow to sleet to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Really! That Euro snowfall map posted above has the 12" line all the way down to near hartford, and everything just north of Ct's south coast over WSW type criteria. I actually think that even here would see 6" on the EURO, I've noticed that those maps are notorious for having a huge gradient right at the coastline, for both the blizzard and 3/8, they had a large cutoff at the coast which didn't really materialize. I think EURO is warning criteria from me northward, but again, that's just my opinion... I'm suprised that Upton barely mentioned snow in my P&C, they have only a few hours of rain/snow mix before heavy rain overnight monday. That seems to go against every model, GFS has around 4", EURO 6", GGEM and RGEM good hits. I haven't seen the UKIE, but it would be suprising if they were tossing GFS/EURO/EUROens/GGEM/RGEM in favor of the UKIE. Not sure what they are thinking, but I've noticed that Upton almost always goes very warm, they went warm in the blizzard and in the latest march event, and in daily temps they usually bust warm, it's rare when they are too cold around here. Still plenty on the table, and plenty of time for this to go one way or the other. I don't see this as an all snow event down here(it's close to impossible), but I don't think 6" is out of the question at all, and I think an advisory level front end is likely. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Wrong as usual. The atmosphere is cold so rain is unlikely. But this really has all to do with how far west the secondary tracks and how quickly it gets going. That's really a function of some of the complex shortwave interaction to our west and where the best height falls/qg forcing sets up. It's certainly possible 6+ is widespread along and north of 84 but I don't think that's the most likely outcome. I do think it will be a nasty mix with snow to sleet to ice. I've had a great winter forecasting..There's no getting around that. I will allow the possibility of a tickle with sleet but a change back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I've had a great winter forecasting..There's no getting around that. I will allow the possibility of a tickle with sleet but a change back to snow Actually, I thought you've had a subpar winter. Some of the greats like Scott and Phil have really been on fire. I certainly don't mind leaning toward the Euro but it is on the colder side of guidance and is the most extreme solution. Even the cold GGEM solution isn't all that great for us in CT if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Doubt it. Euro is probably more correct than the other guidance but I imagine we'll see a few ticks warmer and snow over to sleet and freezing rain. NW Hills will do better though. I'm not sure if it gets warmer, it's been trending colder on every run... The seasonal trend in the short range this winter has been colder as we get closer to the start, I don't see why this would be any different, it's really already begun. You're the met though, so you know more than me, but my guess is that this keeps going colder. I'd put it right now at 30% we see 6" down here, 60% for 4" and 80%" for 2", although of course subject to change. I'd say 5% at best that it's all snow here, 10% all frozen. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Anyone know how far north the 0C isotherm makes it in the warm tongue above H85 on the euro (or if it is even warmer than H85 at all)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Actually, I thought you've had a subpar winter. Some of the greats like Scott and Phil have really been on fire. I certainly don't mind leaning toward the Euro but it is on the colder side of guidance and is the most extreme solution. Even the cold GGEM solution isn't all that great for us in CT if you want snow. As usual don;t agree with much of anything you posted. Phil left the board. I'm off to rip back Guinness for St patty's. Enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Blizz tossing the 18z GFS? Blows for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Congrats ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Congrats ME GFS still ugly but a nice front end thump of snow before ice and eventually rain south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Congrats ME Looks pretty solid in VT...as usual the models won't resolve that downslope area due to grid issues. That precip hole in VT always verifies smaller and confined to more extreme NE VT. Still a big hit from the Adirondacks across NNE on the whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Anyone know how far north the 0C isotherm makes it in the warm tongue above H85 on the euro (or if it is even warmer than H85 at all)? Can only see H85 on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Blizz tossing the 18z GFS? Blows for everyone Trending colder actually. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 If any of you have doubts about folks measuring look here at coop data, http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/snowfall.map?view=daily Use the date range and add FYI for you people who have dogged Pete, the Worthington COOP as of last night had 91.9 for the season and thats lower than him and a bit East. Just to let ya know. I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I support Pete's claim, fwiw. But as an FYI--Worthington is west of Pete. You take 143 through Chesterfield/West Chesterfield into Worthington. Not sure what the el is for the coop, but that's of little consequence in that location. I believe the elevation of that co-op is 1285 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 18z GFS beautiful for Lake Placid(12"+), OK for down here(2-4"). Still riding the EURO... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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