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Saturday Clipper Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Storm total dusting of accumulation, but probably would have been 2" or so if it was January. We got moderate to heavy for a time, but, just as it started to stick, the intensity would drop, and it would all melt. Still a great afternoon, nice to go out for a walk and be in the snow. Now, onto monday night...

 

Don, great pictures!

-skisheep

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Storm total dusting of accumulation, but probably would have been 2" or so if it was January. We got moderate to heavy for a time, but, just as it started to stick, the intensity would drop, and it would all melt. Still a great afternoon, nice to go out for a walk and be in the snow. Now, onto monday night...

 

Don, great pictures!

-skisheep

It was nice to be out in the snow. It sure beats the warmth that was moving into the area last year at this time.

 

Hopefully, it's only an appetizer for Monday night.

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Funny how as soon as I posted that pic snow intensity picked up again.

 

 

 

This is really turning out to be a good/very good winter for Monmouth. They had 1.1" back home, so my backyard total is now up to 34.7" on the season. With this historic blocking regime evolving, the pattern we've got in place is mid winter like. Maybe another light accum, T-1" deal on Monday with that system, and I'm still watching the 22nd-26th for bigger potential.

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This is really turning out to be a good/very good winter for Monmouth. They had 1.1" back home, so my backyard total is now up to 34.7" on the season. With this historic blocking regime evolving, the pattern we've got in place is mid winter like. Maybe another light accum, T-1" deal on Monday with that system, and I'm still watching the 22nd-26th for bigger potential.

with the AO tanking to record levels and the nao tanking also we could get a big parting shot before it's over...Most of the year the AO was negative nut the NAO wasn't...This time both are forecast to be negative...

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This is really turning out to be a good/very good winter for Monmouth. They had 1.1" back home, so my backyard total is now up to 34.7" on the season. With this historic blocking regime evolving, the pattern we've got in place is mid winter like. Maybe another light accum, T-1" deal on Monday with that system, and I'm still watching the 22nd-26th for bigger potential.

It sure has. As for Monday - Tues deal, I'm not so sure the models are done trending yet. With the AO tanking, another 100 miles south with suppression and we'll be in business.

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Guest Pamela

Light snow Port Jefferson...temp down to 33.2 F.

Measured 7/10ths of an inch of snow in Port Jefferson as of 7:30 PM. Temp 30.9 F.

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Greatest accumulation of the day so far, just walked out of a restaruant and was suprised to see it still snowing. Up to a dusting now, although nothing's showing up on radar...

-skisheep

 

Yes, everything is covered in snow here in Dobbs Ferry except for the streets...it's great to see a snow-covered, mid-winter scene on March 16th after the extreme warmth and early end to winter we experienced in March 2012 and 2010. 

 

-SN

31.7/30

0.5" accumulation

46.75" seasonal total

 

Today's high was only 37.7F, a good -10F departure on the maximum as average high here in Westchester is up to 50F. Yesterday was also only in the low 40s, so we picked up a slight negative departure as well. Amazing to think that trees were starting to bud last year at this time in southern New Hampshire, where I was living and working at a boarding school. Different scene tonight in the NYC suburbs with a dead landscape coated in a wet March snow. Gorgeous, and we still have the 3/18 SW flow event and hopefully a coastal between 3/21-3/24. Having lived here for many years, chances for meaningful snowfall decline greatly a few days after the equinox. This would be the pattern to deliver, however. 

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Looks like precip is done here according to the radar, storm total .25", if I had to take a wild guess accumulation would have been around 2-3" if it all stuck. Still a nice event none the less, and a taste of what hopefully is to come on tuesday.

-skisheep

I'm somewhat excited for Tuesday, but I think the bigger threat for a major snowfall for NYC is the 3/24 system coming out of the Plains. Set up is perfect with a 50-50 low, west-based -NAO block, and a shortwave digging into the Gulf and drawing moisture northwards:

 

This probably won't be the last threat, as the coastal brings another pool of -10C 850s over us, and that could set up another chance for a front-ender on 3/30 as a closed low digs into the Plains with the block retrograding into central Canada. Verbatim it cuts west on the 18z GFS, but the pattern supports two major threats from 3/23-3/30 following the SW flow event.  

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I'm somewhat excited for Tuesday, but I think the bigger threat for a major snowfall for NYC is the 3/24 system coming out of the Plains. Set up is perfect with a 50-50 low, west-based -NAO block, and a shortwave digging into the Gulf and drawing moisture northwards:

attachicon.gifmarchstorm.gif

 

This probably won't be the last threat, as the coastal brings another pool of -10C 850s over us, and that could set up another chance for a front-ender on 3/30 as a closed low digs into the Plains with the block retrograding into central Canada. Verbatim it cuts west on the 18z GFS, but the pattern supports two major threats from 3/23-3/30 following the SW flow event.  

I'm not even going to begin to speculate on 3/30, but I do agree that we have one more shot at a big one on the 24th. By 3/30, I think it's just too warm to see something huge happen, possible, yes, but very rare. That week between 3/24 and 3/30 takes it from unlikely but possible(especially with the setup we have now) to very rare, atleast in my opinion...

 

I have a feeling tuesday is going to overperform, not sure why, but I just have a feeling that we are going to be happy with the outcome...

-skisheep

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Guest Pamela

NYC CPK saw 0.3", ISP saw 0.1", LGA, JFK, BDR, & EWR: saw a trace. About an hour before sunset a streamer off the Sound came into my area and I had light to moderate snow that finally stuck for almost two hours, resulting in an accumulation of 0.7". It had snowed out here since about 2 PM but the snow had great difficulty overcoming the mid-March sun, making accumulation almost impossible.

Monthly Total: 8.2"

Seasonal Total: 46.2"

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