Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Latest NAM give .2-.3" QPF with cold temps across the Metro....maybe 1-3" especially away from immediate coast/City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Nam is cold for all snow for NYC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 More into western NJ. Maybe 3-5 out that way. The high res simulated radars show several pockets of 35dbz+ echos out that way weakeing as they move eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Start time looks pretty good? Maybe 4-6pm for the start of the heaviest stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Well the NAM just decided to throw down 1-3" of fluff here tomorrow night, would be a nice suprise. I'm not biting though unless the GFS or EURO catch on, at this point, it's a significant outlier. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Start time looks pretty good? Maybe 4-6pm for the start of the heaviest stuff? Keep in mind the 06z NAM gave us nothing more than flurries. This run is much more robust and gets the steady precip shield 150 miles further north. It's an outlier at this point. The NAM's inbred cousin the SREF's stayed well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Keep in mind the 06z NAM gave us nothing more than flurries. This run is much more robust and gets the steady precip shield 150 miles further north. It's an outlier at this point. 12z Nam has more data so it might be on to something. Like you said, it's an outlier until the other models show something similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Keep in mind the 06z NAM gave us nothing more than flurries. This run is much more robust and gets the steady precip shield 150 miles further north. It's an outlier at this point. The NAM's inbred cousin the SREF's stayed well south. I'll call it an outlier after all of 12z comes in, since it's a new set of data, the NAM has the advantage of being the quickest to process it. I see the 9z SREF's as the end of the previous(6z) run of guidance, many of it's members are based off the 6z runs before it, so I look at it to establish a trend from 0 to 6, not 6 to 12. when the new ones come out around 330, then they can be used to validate a trend from 12z. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 There isn't a lot of precip on the Nam. It looks like snow showers for the City on the run with maybe a coating on some surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Having to wait another hour for models FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 There isn't a lot of precip on the Nam. It looks like snow showers for the City on the run with maybe a coating on some surfaces. IDK Anthony the high res simulated radars look rather impressive especially for northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 IDK Anthony the high res simulated radars look rather impressive especially for northern NJ. Hour 33 looks nice on the hi-res Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=12ℑ=nam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_030_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Having to wait another hour for models FTL. This. I'm still in the habit of going to NECP at 1030, I was wondering for a few seconds why there was no commentary on the GFS, than I remembered it's daylight savings... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 The other good thing here that might support an inch or two (as NAM depicted), is it seems like it would be a relatively quick burst of mod-heavy snow over 2-4 hours, instead of light snow over 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The other good thing here that might support an inch or two (as NAM depicted), is it seems like it would be a relatively quick burst of mod-heavy snow over 2-4 hours, instead of light snow over 6. Yeah it's 0.25"+ for most of the area in about a 6-8 hour period. I would call it a brief moderate burst per the simulated radars taken verbatim. We still haven't seen the rest of the 12z suite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 12z RGEM is also north with the clipper http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 if we could get the NAM and RGEM around 20 more miles north that would be ideal for the metro and especially up here(i'm right on the edge of the good stuff), however, since both the NAM and RGEM made large jumps, I would expect the GFS to follow shortly. Overall, a nice improvement and good that we might whiten up the ground for the weekend. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Gfs says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Light snow up to ewr hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Gfs says no Slightly more north on this run 700mb map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_033_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFS came north but not north enough, flurries for all. QPF through 39, no one on this forum except for southern NJ is over .1" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFS is north, but only delivers 0.05 - 0.1" QPF across the region, Verbatim only a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Ukie also came slightly north. It looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFS is north, but only delivers 0.05 - 0.1" QPF across the region, Verbatim only a coating you might get a coating out of that earlier in the season and or at night this late in the season.......................doesn't get dark here till after 7 nowadays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The RGEM, similarly to the NAM, has a stripe of potential light snow across Northern NJ. I think this is a non-event near the coast obviously with the light precipitation rates. But if the farther north solutions are correct, I could see T-2" amounts across the N NJ hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The 12z NAM actually best lifting farther north than the 12z RGEM. If correct, this would produce a moderate band snow for someone tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 12z SPC WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 12z SPC WRF Wow, way north...and a moderate/heavy quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Euro is north at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Hr 36 it sinks south. Nada for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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