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Record Late March Blocking


bluewave

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There were only 7 Marches since 1950 with a 500 meter or higher anomaly around Greenland

and parts of Canada to the pole. Current model forecasts indicate that we could see a very

strong 500 mb height anomaly in that range coming up in about 5 days or so.

 

 

I put together a list of Marches since 1950 when blocking reached above those levels

and the peak snowfall in NYC around or following the strongest  dates. The only year with

such a late date was 1980. Most of the time during blocky Marches, anomalies this great

happen earlier in the month.

 

 

3-10-51........peak NYC snowfall......3-22-51.......1.0"

 

 

 

3-08-58.........3-20-21-58.........11.8"

 

 

 

3-3-62.......3-6-62.......0.2"

 

 

 

3-21-80........T

 

 

 

3-5-81......3-5-81.......8.6"

 

 

 

3-13-05......3-23-05.....1.0"

 

 

 

3-3-06.......3-02-06....1.3"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Seems pretty inconclusive wrt snow, let's look at temps.  I looked at the prior 5 and following 5 days after each record blocking date:

 

1951:

1951-03-05 |    51 |    35
1951-03-06 |    53 |    35
1951-03-07 |    57 |    42
1951-03-08 |    52 |    38
1951-03-09 |    41 |    26
1951-03-10 |    40 |    24
1951-03-11 |    47 |    28
1951-03-12 |    55 |    34
1951-03-13 |    41 |    38
1951-03-14 |    47 |    37
1951-03-15 |    42 |    34

 

 

1958

1958-03-03 |    45 |    39
1958-03-04 |    44 |    34
1958-03-05 |    46 |    35
1958-03-06 |    47 |    35
1958-03-07 |    48 |    33
1958-03-08 |    41 |    30
1958-03-09 |    41 |    27
1958-03-10 |    51 |    33
1958-03-11 |    57 |    34
1958-03-12 |    44 |    34
1958-03-13 |    46 |    34

 

1962:

1962-02-26 |    40 |    33
1962-02-27 |    41 |    36
1962-02-28 |    41 |    35
1962-03-01 |    41 |    17
1962-03-02 |    29 |    12
1962-03-03 |    36 |    11
1962-03-04 |    38 |    16
1962-03-05 |    39 |    29
1962-03-06 |    38 |    34
1962-03-07 |    42 |    34
1962-03-08 |    43 |    32

 

 

1980

1980-03-16 |    48 |    25
1980-03-17 |    59 |    38
1980-03-18 |    59 |    38
1980-03-19 |    58 |    35
1980-03-20 |    58 |    43
1980-03-21 |    55 |    43
1980-03-22 |    43 |    36
1980-03-23 |    57 |    35
1980-03-24 |    54 |    38
1980-03-25 |    43 |    37
1980-03-26 |    47 |    38

 

 

1981

1981-02-28 |    44 |    35
1981-03-01 |    49 |    40
1981-03-02 |    47 |    37
1981-03-03 |    37 |    28
1981-03-04 |    40 |    26
1981-03-05 |    38 |    31
1981-03-06 |    43 |    31
1981-03-07 |    43 |    33
1981-03-08 |    46 |    37
1981-03-09 |    50 |    41
1981-03-10 |    50 |    38

 

 

2005

2005-03-08 |    57 |    18
2005-03-09 |    31 |    16
2005-03-10 |    34 |    21
2005-03-11 |    38 |    29
2005-03-12 |    45 |    30
2005-03-13 |    45 |    34
2005-03-14 |    40 |    28
2005-03-15 |    46 |    28
2005-03-16 |    45 |    32
2005-03-17 |    48 |    33
2005-03-18 |    50 |    37

 

 

2006

2006-02-26 |    29 |    18
2006-02-27 |    30 |    18
2006-02-28 |    33 |    22
2006-03-01 |    41 |    27
2006-03-02 |    35 |    29
2006-03-03 |    33 |    22
2006-03-04 |    39 |    24
2006-03-05 |    45 |    31
2006-03-06 |    43 |    31
2006-03-07 |    44 |    30
2006-03-08 |    49 |    29

 

 

Cold, but not brutal.

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There were only 7 Marches since 1950 with a 500 meter or higher anomaly around Greenland

and parts of Canada to the pole. Current model forecasts indicate that we could see a very

strong 500 mb height anomaly in that range coming up in about 5 days or so.

 

attachicon.gif00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH120.jpg

 

I put together a list of Marches since 1950 when blocking reached above those levels

and the peak snowfall in NYC around or following the strongest  dates. The only year with

such a late date was 1980. Most of the time during blocky Marches, anomalies this great

happen earlier in the month.

 

 

3-10-51........peak NYC snowfall......3-22-51.......1.0"

 

attachicon.gif31051.gif

 

 

3-08-58.........3-20-21-58.........11.8"

 

attachicon.gif3858.gif

 

 

3-3-62.......3-6-62.......0.2"

 

attachicon.gif3362.gif

 

 

3-21-80........T

 

attachicon.gif32180.gif

 

 

3-5-81......3-5-81.......8.6"

 

attachicon.gif3581.gif

 

 

3-13-05......3-23-05.....1.0"

 

attachicon.gif31305.gif

 

 

3-3-06.......3-02-06....1.3"

 

attachicon.gif3306.gif

March 58 had a 4.7" storm on the 13-14th...1980 had measurable snow in some parts around the city on 3/31-4/1...so far the blocking has kept us from torching...so far the max for the month is 57...2001 was the last time the monthly max was this low...

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March 58 had a 4.7" storm on the 13-14th...1980 had measurable snow in some parts around the city on 3/31-4/1...so far the blocking has kept us from torching...so far the max for the month is 57...2001 was the last time the monthly max was this low...

 

We came really close to another 500 meter anomaly on 3-17-06 and saw some snow early in April.

 

 

 

 

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Guest Patrick

probably a ridiculous question...is there a single site that you use to piece together your analogs, or do you have to use multiple sources?

thanks

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A drop to around -5 or lower on the AO would be entering new territory for what we have seen

in late March since 1950. 

 

 

 

Previous late March lows

 

 

2006  3 21 -3.822

 

2005  3 19 -2.600

 

2001  3 24 -4.202

 

1996  3 31 -3.320

 

1984  3 23 -3.383

 

1981  3 18 -3.460

 

1980  3 17 -3.188

 

1962  3 17 -3.645

 

1958  3 16 -3.396

 

1955 3 21 -3.758

 

 

1952 3 28 -3.123

 

 

1951 3 17 -2.661

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Previous late March lows

 

 

2006  3 21 -3.822

 

2005  3 19 -2.600

 

2001  3 24 -4.202

 

1996  3 31 -3.320

 

1984  3 23 -3.383

 

1981  3 18 -3.460

 

1980  3 17 -3.188

 

1962  3 17 -3.645

 

1958  3 16 -3.396

 

1955 3 21 -3.758

 

 

1952 3 28 -3.123

 

 

1951 3 17 -2.661

2001's low wasn't the lowest for the season...it came in February...I think 1970 is the only march with an ao -5.000 and it came early in the month...This year might end up way lower than any of these years listed...to bad we don't have data before 1950...it could lead to a colder than average April...TWT...

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That is crazy. When was the last time the AO was this low? 2011?

 

These are the dates that we made it to -5 or lower the last couple of years:

 

 

2010 12 18 -5.265

 

2010  2  6 -5.2052010  2  7 -5.005

 

2010  1  2 -5.3842010  1  3 -5.5332010  1  4 -5.4032010  1  5 -5.1802010  1  6 -5.095

 

2009 12 20 -5.3412009 12 21 -5.8212009 12 22 -5.5032009 12 23 -5.5772009 12 24 -5.2562009 12 25 -5.052

 

The strongest 500 mb blocking last winter with a 500 meter anomaly was on the Russian Arctic side.

 

 

 

We last saw a 500 meter anomaly on our side to the pole in January 2011.

 

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The pattern of AO drops and rebounds for the first half of winter vs the pattern for the second half is quite interesting. Each additional drop of the AO has been greater than the previous since the middle of February, with the bottom finally falling out in late march. It'll likely close in on 6 in the next day or 2

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