tacoman25 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think that this will possibly be the greatest October extent since 2002. Screen shot 2013-11-04 at 10.56.11 AM.png So top 3 may not be out of the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 So top 3 may not be out of the question? I wouldn't rule it out. We've had 3 top 5 monthly extents in the past year (November 2012, December 2012, and January 2013) and a close miss. (Sept 2013 ranked 6th) My guess is a little lower than bluewaves...maybe something like 7th or 8th. Oct 2009 was 6th I believe and 2002 was 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I wouldn't rule it out. We've had 3 top 5 monthly extents in the past year (November 2012, December 2012, and January 2013) and a close miss. (Sept 2013 ranked 6th) My guess is a little lower than bluewaves...maybe something like 7th or 8th. Oct 2009 was 6th I believe and 2002 was 2nd. I think it will be higher than 2009 because of the much higher start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 So top 3 may not be out of the question? I wouldn't rule it out. We've had 3 top 5 monthly extents in the past year (November 2012, December 2012, and January 2013) and a close miss. (Sept 2013 ranked 6th) My guess is a little lower than bluewaves...maybe something like 7th or 8th. Oct 2009 was 6th I believe and 2002 was 2nd. Yeah, it's hard to tell how close to 2009 we'll finish until they update the numbers. We'll see if we finish a little ahead of or behind October 2009. This month we started out with a nice positive Eurasian anomaly. October 2009 had a good advance during week two with the snowy pattern over North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think the monthly mean will be higher than 2009 if it is an evenly weighted daily average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I think the monthly mean will be higher than 2009 if it is an evenly weighted daily average. Does the FSU/NCEP chart methodology differ from Rutgers snow lab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Does the FSU/NCEP chart methodology differ from Rutgers snow lab? FSU has two sources; one which includes sea ice and one which does not. I am not sure how either source computes a monthly average. I know NSIDC does not simply use a straight average of the daily values for sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 If October is in the top 3 on rutgers I will change the tag line. Another art of misdirection. How many top 5 snow cover months have we seen vs top 5 least snow cover months the last decade. Is it 5 to 1? 10 to 1? but if it makes people feel better about the state of Northern Hemisphere snow cover then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 If October is in the top 3 on rutgers I will change the tag line. Another art of misdirection. How many top 5 snow cover months have we seen vs top 5 least snow cover months the last decade. Is it 5 to 1? 10 to 1? but if it makes people feel better about the state of Northern Hemisphere snow cover then so be it. Why put time sensitive tags on a year long thread? What does "feeling better" have to do with it, we have no control over the state of snow cover, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 If October is in the top 3 on rutgers I will change the tag line. Another art of misdirection. How many top 5 snow cover months have we seen vs top 5 least snow cover months the last decade. Is it 5 to 1? 10 to 1? but if it makes people feel better about the state of Northern Hemisphere snow cover then so be it. No, it's more about the fact that May was 5 months ago and we just saw a significantly above normal month. If you want to be viewed as not incredibly biased, only taking note of things that support "your viewpoint" doesn't really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Friv, They have a valid point. Your credibility, which is already suffering, is just going to fall further if you don't change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Actually I think the credibility of the people making a big deal out of this is suffering more. For one, it's not a big deal. Second, he obviously doesn't update the thread title regularly. He neglected to change it to point out that June was the 2nd lowest area on record (even more anomalous than the #3 in May). Shame on him for neglecting this anomalous event. He must be an AGW-denier. Third, fall/winter snow area is more variable than summer and reflect hemispheric weather patterns rather than climate. Summer area, on the other hand, because it is less variable year-to-year is more reflective of climate. This is a climate sub-forum. Summer months are more pertinent. Fourth, spring/summer trends are more pertinent to climate change because they result in a much larger albedo change (~5X more than in winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Actually I think the credibility of the people making a big deal out of this is suffering more. For one, it's not a big deal. Second, he obviously doesn't update the thread title regularly. He neglected to change it to point out that June was the 2nd lowest area on record (even more anomalous than the #3 in May). Shame on him for neglecting this anomalous event. He must be an AGW-denier. Third, fall/winter snow area is more variable than summer and reflect hemispheric weather patterns rather than climate. Summer area, on the other hand, because it is less variable year-to-year is more reflective of climate. This is a climate sub-forum. Summer months are more pertinent. Fourth, spring/summer trends are more pertinent to climate change because they result in a much larger albedo change (~5X more than in winter). It's Friv. He's earned the right to be called out for his extreme bias. He has repeatedly claimed he has no agenda, yet anyone who follows his posts can see he doesn't present things evenly. And no one made a huge deal of it. I just asked a simple question: would he update the tagline, based on what's happened much more recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Is October going to be the 3rd highest on record? No. This could turn out to be wrong. A bit of an assumption, with no real evidence offered to support it. In addition, where do you think this Sep/Oct will rank? I bet it will be top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 It's Friv. He's earned the right to be called out for his extreme bias. He has repeatedly claimed he has no agenda, yet anyone who follows his posts can see he doesn't present things evenly. And no one made a huge deal of it. I just asked a simple question: would he update the tagline, based on what's happened much more recently? Actually you didn't ask a question. You made a snarky remark saying it would be "interesting to see" if he updates it. Then 3 posters got all excited and jumped on the band wagon (Marrietta, Jonger, Gawx). Personally, I don't find it the least bit interesting. In fact, I would prefer it if he kept the subtitle or changed it to include the more interesting and informative information about the very low and persistently low summer snow cover. I don't find monthly winter snow cover data very interesting from a climate perspective. Perhaps, he could change the subtitle to "4th lowest summer snowcover (MJJ)" From a climate perspective, that's the truly interesting event this year. Actually a pretty decent speed-bump in the long-term continuous decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 This could turn out to be wrong. A bit of an assumption, with no real evidence offered to support it. In addition, where do you think this Sep/Oct will rank? I bet it will be top 3. Ehh I did a quick glance and it looked like it would be out of top 3 but that might be wrong. I'd guess somewhere between #3 and 7... best guess 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Actually you didn't ask a question. You made a snarky remark saying it would be "interesting to see" if he updates it. Then 3 posters got all excited and jumped on the band wagon (Marrietta, Jonger, Gawx). Personally, I don't find it the least bit interesting. In fact, I would prefer it if he kept the subtitle or changed it to include the more interesting and informative information about the very low and persistently low summer snow cover. I don't find monthly winter snow cover data very interesting from a climate perspective. Perhaps, he could change the subtitle to "4th lowest summer snowcover (MJJ)" From a climate perspective, that's the truly interesting event this year. Actually a pretty decent speed-bump in the long-term continuous decline. Which explains why you keep making lengthy posts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Ehh I did a quick glance and it looked like it would be out of top 3 but that might be wrong. I'd guess somewhere between #3 and 7... best guess 4 Sep/Oct definitely top 3, as far as I can tell. One of the biggest starts to the snow season on record, but it's not important, YOU DON'T CARE and neither should anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Which explains why you keep making lengthy posts about it. My lengthy posts are addressing the stupidity of the personal attacks on the thread starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Sep/Oct definitely top 3, as far as I can tell. One of the biggest starts to the snow season on record, but it's not important, YOU DON'T CARE and neither should anyone else. So you are sarcastically suggesting that it is somehow important and that a month of good October snow cover says anything significant about climate. What exactly does it show? Instead of being argumentative and trying to make fun of people, why don't you enlighten us and explain how a month of good snow in October says anything significant about climate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Actually you didn't ask a question. You made a snarky remark saying it would be "interesting to see" if he updates it. Then 3 posters got all excited and jumped on the band wagon (Marrietta, Jonger, Gawx). Personally, I don't find it the least bit interesting. In fact, I would prefer it if he kept the subtitle or changed it to include the more interesting and informative information about the very low and persistently low summer snow cover. I don't find monthly winter snow cover data very interesting from a climate perspective. Perhaps, he could change the subtitle to "4th lowest summer snowcover (MJJ)" From a climate perspective, that's the truly interesting event this year. Actually a pretty decent speed-bump in the long-term continuous decline. Come on, man. Don't insult our intelligence. Your defense of him is truly weak. The guy even makes fun of his own bias with his now calling himself Global Warmer! His bias in this forum is egregious. He doesn't even try to hide it. Are you denying he has a bias? Also, he has continued to look for El Nino ad nauseum for several months when there's been no evidence of one yet forming and when Noaa 3.4 weeklies have remained slightly negative! Maybe he's been smoking too much good stuff? He used to emphasize how much he likes the green stuff at the end of his profile signature. Alternatively, maybe he's been drinking too much of the sauce that today's Euro op. run drank. Edit: I just saw that Friv changed the subheading. I obviously think that was a wise decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 I look for a nino? yeah that's it. Because all you could consider is how enso effects the snow in your back yard. Yet in a freaking climate change forum I am curious about enso and how the heat distrubution would be during a NINO. And you kept saying no nino coming. Like wtf? I obviously just wanted to know the implications of a nino if it happens so I can make better temperature predictions. I asked about the NINO thing a lot when the global temps were in the .35C+ range. Do you realize if a NINO blew up then we would of seen global ssta go to record levels. Even higher than 2010 and 1998. So if that did happen, I wanted to know how other regions of the Earths oceans would change. I think it's a fairly reasonable thing to discuss. For some reason this line of thinking was lost on multiple people who kept replying to me that no nino was coming. Which is not what I was asking. I asked about a nino a few days ago. Considering TAO/TRITON and CPC Subsurface and current SSTA it doesn't seem unreasonable. Who gives a bleep anyways. It's a climate change forum. If I want to talk about NINOs and NINAs all day I can. It doesn't make me bias. If you can't see why I am not looking for cool it's because there will literally be no chance for any global "cooling" or record cold. What a joke. Observation yields that it's warm. I can't help that. The most pressing question is when will the temp records be broken. If an NINO will do it. Then I will be looking for a NINO. It's going to happen. Am I supposed to pray for a NINA forever or something? It was pretty telling. This is a climate forum. ENSO talk is only used in terms of global temps. We have seperate places ENSO is talked about on these boards. In the main thread the stuff you replied to me with was right. Here it didn't make sense. So you gotta lot whatever calling me bias when you're trying to speak to me about how enso will effect our winter in a climate thread when I just want to know if a nino will push the heat over the edge for records or if other regions of the globe will cool to compensate it. This forum is called climate change. You guys act like its a crime to have a climate change discussion. Climate change is about the Earth warming not cooling. Secondly October snow cover being above normal fits the mold of a warming Earth. Which re-enforces AGW role in creating more snow in fall and winter and melting it faster in Spring. Most of you contribute nothing here but constantly whine and b**ch. Shut up and start making you're own threads and updating them. Do you're own work if you think I am biased. Do I have to give this place some Tampax or what? How about you all just prove everything I say wrong instead of whining or stalking me like a crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 All of this crap over October coming in tied for 6th on Rutgers. Not even top 5 let alone top 3. What an achievement. Cancel the apocalypse. Correction. 7th of 46th highest snow cover Octobers. May was 3rd and June was 2nd least snow cover months. I didn't even mention June. Only May. But I am bias for not mention September and October. September was 6th. We didn't crack the top 5 this year so far. And looking at November I'd say not happening in November. Unless it's least snowiest Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Friv,You think I post about El niño mainly because of how much snow I may get in my backyard? I resemble that remark. I hardly get any snow regardless of Nino/Neutral/Nina! I'm near the Georgia coast for goodness sakes! It gets an average of like a fith of an inch a winter on average with very few winters getting any. It hasn't exceeded an inch in most spots since 1989!!Anyway, yes, I continue to say no El Nino this winter based on many decades of Nino 3.4 SST anomaly records. What does that have to do with snow in my coastal GA beach...I mean....backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I wouldn't rule it out. We've had 3 top 5 monthly extents in the past year (November 2012, December 2012, and January 2013) and a close miss. (Sept 2013 ranked 6th) My guess is a little lower than bluewaves...maybe something like 7th or 8th. Oct 2009 was 6th I believe and 2002 was 2nd. 7th it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 7th it is. So we are tied for highest since 2002 at 21.01 with 2009. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 My lengthy posts are addressing the stupidity of the personal attacks on the thread starter. You're going out of your way to defend him. Just stick to the facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 So you are sarcastically suggesting that it is somehow important and that a month of good October snow cover says anything significant about climate. What exactly does it show? Instead of being argumentative and trying to make fun of people, why don't you enlighten us and explain how a month of good snow in October says anything significant about climate? I never made any of those claims. I wondered if the outdated tagline for this thread would be updated anytime soon. Stop reading so much into everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 All of this crap over October coming in tied for 6th on Rutgers. Not even top 5 let alone top 3. What an achievement. Cancel the apocalypse. Correction. 7th of 46th highest snow cover Octobers. May was 3rd and June was 2nd least snow cover months. I didn't even mention June. Only May. But I am bias for not mention September and October. September was 6th. We didn't crack the top 5 this year so far. And looking at November I'd say not happening in November. Unless it's least snowiest Novembers. Where does the Sep/Oct (start of the snow season) 2013 rank? September was #6, October was #7...looks to me like it's close to a top 3 for Sep/Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 All of this crap over October coming in tied for 6th on Rutgers. Not even top 5 let alone top 3. What an achievement. Cancel the apocalypse. Correction. 7th of 46th highest snow cover Octobers. May was 3rd and June was 2nd least snow cover months. I didn't even mention June. Only May. But I am bias for not mention September and October. September was 6th. We didn't crack the top 5 this year so far. And looking at November I'd say not happening in November. Unless it's least snowiest Novembers. So on the 5th of the month you're speculating about it being the least snowiest November? Yeah, doesn't sound like any bias there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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