The_Global_Warmer Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Something tells me that this winter is going to be MUCH colder than recent years. Does Anemoi tell you this? If you have been in contact with Anemoi tell him to Man up this winter, maybe we will go below zero if he picks up his ****. The actual SSTA tell me there is a lot of heat to go around. Let's hope for major blocking. Becuase there is a hose of very warm water of the Pacific thousands and thousands of miles long. Another even wider ring of fire is from you're backyard to England. Then another blob of fire over the Barents region and East of the Outback down-under. hopefully we get some snow on our side. It's scant. Euro shows SLPs over East Central Canada after Oct 17th. Maybe some major snow can be laid down. Get that albedo down. Cool things off. Get the Westerlies to blow over that snow and then lose heat before they reach the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 That big blob of heat in the north Pacific has been a consistent feature during falls since the -PDO phase set in. Note how much the NE Pacific has cooled in recent weeks, also a consistent feature with -PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 As for the SSTA and winter cold chances, I don't think the +1 to +4C anomalies really make that much difference away from the coast. Look at the arctic about 2 weeks ago, it was above normal and the land adjacent to it was below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Snow cover starting to build around Hudson Bay now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 16, 2013 Author Share Posted October 16, 2013 Today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Above normal image.jpg It doesn't look like that's updated since the government shutdown at the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 It doesn't look like that's updated since the government shutdown at the beginning of the month. I didn't notice that but you are correct. If you compare the time frame shown to a year ago the change is remarakable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 It doesn't look like that's updated since the government shutdown at the beginning of the month. Sounds like the government might reopen tonight. Hopefully we can get our updated data by the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 17, 2013 Author Share Posted October 17, 2013 We should start to see some snow build over Northern Canada. It's starting to look like the snow cover anomaly might flip back negative for a little while as the pattern rearanges itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Snow cover in Eurasia is going to slow down I believe...at least in the eastern parts. Hopefully the western can make up for it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Nice. Still on pace to have one of the highest October extents on record (in terms of overall average for the month). I would think in the top 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 This is not surprising given that it's the coldest 9-15 to 10-15 since 2002 for Eurasia. Some really cold air for early in the season was able to build under the strong blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Friv nobody here is using the NCEP/NCAR snow graphic as gospel for long term snow cover everyone knows that Rutgers global snow lab should be used as climo. That said NCEP/NCAR graphic can be used as a tool to gauge the snow cover considering the climo range covers the worst years for snow cover so if it shows a high positive anomaly a good chance Rutgers is most likely at around normal give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Friv nobody here is using the NCEP/NCAR snow graphic as gospel for long term snow cover everyone knows that Rutgers global snow lab should be used as climo. That said NCEP/NCAR graphic can be used as a tool to gauge the snow cover considering the climo range covers the worst years for snow cover so if it shows a high positive anomaly a good chance Rutgers is most likely at around normal give or take. Have you been able to get the Rutgers graphs to work? I keep getting missing plug in error messages over the last week or so. The graphs- monthly anomalies is what is missing when I go there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Have you been able to get the Rutgers graphs to work? I keep getting missing plug in error messages over the last week or so. The graphs- monthly anomalies is what is missing when I go there now. Everything is working for me you referring to these graphs correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Everything is working for me you referring to these graphs correct? Yeah, I can't access those anymore without getting a missing plug-in message. I am using safari and never had the problem before. It's pretty annoying and I have the plug-ins enabled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Yeah, I can't access those anymore without getting a missing plug-in message. I am using safari and never had the problem before. It's pretty annoying and I have the plug-ins enabled. Screen shot 2013-10-20 at 4.29.30 PM.png Yea it must be on your end i'm using mozilla firefox only thing I could suggest is to make sure your plugins are up to date if you haven't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Any guesses as to where Oct 2013 will end up for average snow extent? I'm guessing top 5-7 since 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Snow cover area really skyrocketing. ~13.5% a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 All that matter to me is the Pacific. Is it going to toss a parade of storms into northern British Columbia or not? 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 featured a similar pattern of storms cutting through Canada and starving us of polar air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 All that matter to me is the Pacific. Is it going to toss a parade of storms into northern British Columbia or not? 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 featured a similar pattern of storms cutting through Canada and starving us of polar air. amen. a parade of the pacific storms = no real winter in the east. Global temperatures can be down but if the pacific is active, winter will suck for easterners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the thread starter updates the tagline when October's numbers come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the thread starter updates the tagline when October's numbers come in... Is October going to be the 3rd highest on record? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Is October going to be the 3rd highest on record? No. It's weird how departures obviously fall towards records in land ice, snow cover, sea ice, global temps, ocean temps, ohc, and so on recently or now. And we have "cool" or 'above average", sometimes well above in the opposite direction and it's expected to be given similar value. Folks on my local snow lovers forum look at 2013 as the opposite of 2012. Like 2013 is a cool year. We had a COOL Summer. It was 0.7F+ above the last 30 years but its called cool. 2012 smashed records. 2013 is slightly warm but it's treated as cool. It's really strange. Look at GISS and UAH. Both are likely to finish 4th to 6th warmest on record and its certainly not treated like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Is October going to be the 3rd highest on record? No. It's weird how departures obviously fall towards records in land ice, snow cover, sea ice, global temps, ocean temps, ohc, and so on recently or now. And we have "cool" or 'above average", sometimes well above in the opposite direction and it's expected to be given similar value. Folks on my local snow lovers forum look at 2013 as the opposite of 2012. Like 2013 is a cool year. We had a COOL Summer. It was 0.7F+ above the last 30 years but its called cool. 2012 smashed records. 2013 is slightly warm but it's treated as cool. It's really strange. Look at GISS and UAH. Both are likely to finish 4th to 6th warmest on record and its certainly not treated like that. The last 2 summers were way above normal, so average seems cool to them. I tell people that the year was just average, which it was. We are still running a negative YTD here, but anything between +1 to -1, I call average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the thread starter updates the tagline when October's numbers come in... Of course not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Is October going to be the 3rd highest on record? No. It will be a much higher anomaly than May, that's for sure. And a lot more relevant, considering May was 5 months ago. Where do you think October 2013 will rank? Certainly above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 It will be a much higher anomaly than May, that's for sure. And a lot more relevant, considering May was 5 months ago. Where do you think October 2013 will rank? Certainly above normal. I think that this will possibly be the greatest October extent since 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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