2014 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Thread

[AvantHiatus]

Probably has more to do with just getting a storm in there, than temps. The odds are that snow will make it in there before spring, but I don't see why that matters, the snow albedo affects only local surface temps regardless. You will probably see temporary big positive temp departures in the spring, the locals will love it.

That is also a one-way ticket to a permafrost graveyard.

[Jonger]

Probably has more to do with just getting a storm in there, than temps. The odds are that snow will make it in there before spring, but I don't see why that matters, the snow albedo affects only local surface temps regardless. You will probably see temporary big positive temp departures in the spring, the locals will love it.

That is also a one-way ticket to a permafrost graveyard.

Actually, uncovered ground freezes regular frost much deeper without snow. So that's untrue.

[AvantHiatus]

Actually, uncovered ground freezes regular frost much deeper without snow. So that's untrue.

Is there not normally multi-meters of snow in this region? A month or so of insulating deep snow-pack is more valuable than a week of frozen dirt layer.

[Jonger]

Is there not normally multi-meters of snow in this region? A month or so of insulating deep snow-pack is more valuable than a week of a frozen dirt layer.

 

Any area that has permafrost, gets VERY cold... If there isn't snow there, its just the result of bad luck with precipitation. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

That's not true.  It was to warm for snow.  Some places had rain that almost never seen rain in winter.

 

Just Google it. This was in December.  Many folks who have lived their entire lives there in there 80s said they have never seen anything like it.

 

Except one time in the 1960s but this was much warmer.  Some of the rivers that are frozen solid every year had no ice or very little.

 

The medium range models seem to dump cold in Siberia and cut the CPF off so it will probably rebound well.

[ORH_wxman]

January 2014 NH snow cover ranked 39th out of 48 years. This was the first below average snow cover January in the NH in 9 years and the first winter month (DJF) to rank below average since December 2011.

 

February 2014 looks off to a pretty fast start, so I'm guessing that this month will come in above average again.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The next week is going to be extremely interesting over Western Russia/Northern Europe.  There is a huge region where snow-cover is in terrible terrible shape.  On the low resolution Rutgers it's still showing up as snow covered to the Russian/Eastern Europe border.  But as you can see on the visible image below.  This is from yesterday and the region or terrible snow cover is actually larger than this. 

 

Insolation is still pretty low over this region especially when you get upwards of 55-60N.  But there is a large area that will be under this warm W/SW/S flow as the large ridge slides East slowly over the next week. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

That is nasty, the PV completely leaves Russia and ends up over the torching North Pacific. Horrible horrible pattern. Global anomalies will skyrocket if this happens.

[Jonger]

That is nasty, the PV completely leaves Russia and ends up over the torching North Pacific. Horrible horrible pattern. Global anomalies will skyrocket if this happens.

 

How is that bad?

[AvantHiatus]

How is that bad?

Solar insolation is increasing this time of the year and there is not enough time to rebuild new cold air. I would make an argument that the cold continents warm oceans pattern has played a big role in minimizing global warming and also why we observe such large changes in Northern Hemisphere snow-cover. Oscillating rapidly between above normal and below normal snow-cover during the spring on a year-to-year basis.

 

We need to sustain albedo as long as possible, this is simply not good and anyone who says otherwise does not understand atmospheric science. *Imagine all of Russia turning "red", which is what the GFS is forecasting.

 

 

 

The cold air is obliterated by the ocean-heat exchange at the same time North American PV starts to fade out as we move through March. Additionally, thanks to arctic amplification the PV ends up way south and has no chance of recovery.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Month-to-month global temperatures are determined by a large array of factors, but the most important short term forcings involve variations in the latent heat flux via tropical convection, often associated with the MJO.

January 2013 is a perfect example of this. We saw the SSW/PV collapse followed by a cooling of the equatorial upper troposphere, igniting a firestorm of convection. We ended up with a huge global temperature spike, but also shed additional heat to space as OLR anomalies went through the roof (measured by the NOAA15 & NOAA 16 units).

This time we're heading in a Niño-esque direction in regards to the tropical circulation. So this should be interesting to watch.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If the forecasts the next week or two coming for Eurasia/NA are right.

 

Snow cover is going to drop way below normal.

 

 

The anomalies over the Eastern CONUS are going to retreat quickly the next 5 days.

 

[ORH_wxman]

January 2014 NH snow cover ranked 39th out of 48 years. This was the first below average snow cover January in the NH in 9 years and the first winter month (DJF) to rank below average since December 2011.

 

February 2014 looks off to a pretty fast start, so I'm guessing that this month will come in above average again.

 

 

 

February data is in from Rutgers and the February N hemisphere snow cover rebounded back to above normal after January saw below normal snow cover. This February ranked 17th out of 48 years in the dataset. This is the 5th consecutive February above normal.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snow cover over Eurasia has eroded quickly.

 

The pattern should be more conducive for slowing down the loss of snow cover.  We will see because snow depth is crap over most of Eurasia still.

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

IMS updated today and another big snow cover loss day in Eurasia.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The losses today slowed down.  Which is expected the rate of the losses would have to dramatically slow or we would be on path to demolish records.

 

 

 

 

The Hemispheric overview of the last week shows the tremendous snow cover loss.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Anomaly changes over the past week.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snow cover is going to take a beating along the Southern 1/3rd of it over the next 7-8 days.

 

 

The top image is today's snow cover anomaly. 

The middle image is current snow cover.

The bottom image is snow cover climo for April 7th.

Obviously we are already well behind already and the pattern is showing a major torch into Central Russia the next few years.

 

we will see transient snow events helping off set the anomalies along the Western/SE side here and there.  But overall the snow cover over the SW/South/South Central part of Russia will see the snow cover get smoked during this period. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is going to be the first below normal March snow cover since 2008.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snow cover loss over Eurasia has been much slower the last couple days with colder dropping South.  But that was short lived.  There should be new snow over Western Russia the next couple of days.

 

 

The NA side has had two huge reduction days but that is normal when snow is well above normal.

 

There will be quite a bit of new snow the next 3 days over parts of the Rockies and upper Midwest.  So NA will go back into a large positive anomaly going into April.

 

There will be some snow melt over the great lakes region into SE Canada the next few days with warm flow, higher dews and an area of rain.

 

But it will be short lived.

 

 

 

 

Let's get acquainted with Russia's topography and where the snow cover is. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We can see that Russia is pretty much divided in half between hills and small mountains versus mostly 800FT or low in elevation lands.

 

 

 

 

One thing we will see for sure this week.  South central Russia gets totally smoked this week.  Snow cover there is already in bad shape depth wise. 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Encase folks don't realize it. They have moved to 1981-2010 now for the new normals. 

 

March snow cover was 6th lowest on record.

 

 

I think April will be top 3 lowest on record.  Possibly 1st.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Russian snow cover is being decimated.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Eurasian snow cover at this point is being crippled.

 

 

This is the last two day change.  There are losses all over the snow pack.  Look at the huge losses over Western Canada.

 

That region could easily go positive over the next 2-3 days.

 

As of now I think April has a 90%percent chance to finish top 3 lowest snow cover Aprils on record.

 

 

This is from yesterday.  This is now 1981-2010 climo based.  So this is pretty bad. 

 

 

 

In SE Russia where a huge area is melting out fast.  On top of that there is a huge torch coming to that region the next 4-5 days.

 

 

By the end of this week the models show potentially epic warmth over the Western half of Russia. While the East isn't really that cold either.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

year to year changes are huge

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

More big losses.

 

 

One week difference is huge.

 

[michsnowfreak]

So Feb NA snowcover was well above normal but March/April well below? Interesting. Obviously any one location is just a speck in the Northern Hemisphere lol, but Detroit just saw its most snowcovered winter on record.

[The_Global_Warmer]

arctic amplification.

 

To many positive feedbacks in Spring overwhelm the snow pack earlier and earlier.

 

last year natural variability propelled April to actually being above normal snow cover wise.

 

But even that didn't last when IIRC the 2nd or 3rd week of May reached lowest on record for that week.

 

This year NA is alright.  Slightly above average but Eurasian(Russian) snow cover is in bad shape.

 

 

about a month ago.  Eurasia started torching.  These anomalies are in Celcius. 

 

This has been going on for about a month.  And there is no sign of it stopping.

 

Solar insolation right now has reached 300W/M2 at 60N.  This up coming pattern when long fetch WSW/W winds blowing from Eastern Europe, Western Russia, SW Russia will be coming from an area where albedo way higher than over the remaining snow pack. 

 

The faster the snow melts, the faster the albedo changes, the faster the ground unthaws and vegetation takes off and albedo plummets then.

 

with the PV holed up and the AO++++ it's terrible.  This is the opposite of last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Here is last year versus this year on this date.

 

Amazing differences.

 

Coincidental or not.  Global temps are much warmer than last year at this time. 

 

 

On this

 

 

On this image is a view of Western Russia.

 

Everything on top of the red line is considered 100 percent snow covered attm.  But a large area is toast. 

 

With those winds rolling out of the w/wsw the daily heating in this area is quite strong.  This is the snow cover albedo feedback in action. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think this feedback has a ton of room for more acceleration of Spring snow cover loss in Eurasia.

 

Solar insolaton is sky rocketing over this region.

[Jonger]

You do know this snow will melt soon anyhow, I'm sure you are pining for a warm April globally, you might snag an extra +0.05 out of this toward the GISS anomaly.

Much of that warmth would be there with or without the snow.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snow cover anomalies are not as bad now with the NA side still doing pretty well.

 

Take note this is based on 1981-2010 now.  Not 1971-2000.