2014 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

For the first time in months the Northern Hemisphere snow cover is now in negative anomaly state.  It also appears the weather patterns the next week will be conducive for some possible major early season snow fall melt over Parts of Far Eastern/SE Europe and West and Southwest Russia into Southern Russia.

 

 

We can see the current snow line along the anomaly map.  it extends well south of Russia to Kazakhstan which has a

 

 

 

 

 

The area circled in white is progged to see a very strong ridge the next 5 days build into it's region for this time of year.  Essentially the ridge the next 5 days is progged to be centered over 50-55N or so.  There is already a surge of warm air moving North into far Eastern Europe.

 

Here is a link to topography if you need to get familiar with it.

 

http://big-map.ru/map668654_0_0.htm

 

 

 

So essentially South of Russia and Kaz...is Turkey and it's very elevated.  and has no snow. 

 

 

 

 

I can't find any real time Russian Snow depth estimates, if you can please post them.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

The persistent cold on this side of the planet will also start to bring about more positive snow anomalies. 

 

That side of the planet needs a break from all the cold...

[skierinvermont]

The persistent cold on this side of the planet will also start to bring about more positive snow anomalies. 

 

That side of the planet needs a break from all the cold...

 

 

A lot of the areas that had cold earlier in winter have had warm for the last month. Southern Russia, Mongolia and China have had widespread +4C. Also North Africa has been very warm.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The persistent cold on this side of the planet will also start to bring about more positive snow anomalies.

That side of the planet needs a break from all the cold..

Going back almost 30 years starting in March. Snow cover anomalies have been predominantly below normal. The last three years March has come out even or above in 2011.

By April the even or surplus was gone.

By May it get's even worse. Expecially the last 8 years. 3 of the last 4 years have been record setting for May and yet they did decent in March.

By June it's game over.

Snow falling in the Mid-Atlantic or Ohio Valley is irrelevant this time of year. It's not going to be there very long.

The region I was talking about is equivalent to Canada right now by Latitude. Most positive snow cover anomaly regions by now will almost completely come from storms dropping Snow South of regions that historically have snow cover by now. And it won't last long.

Right now the red ring of now hell has formed. It's a regular feature. The snow in Europe won't be there in week. Even without a big torch. That red ring area has another 3-4 days of Super blow torch weather. That red ring is along places that are "climo" supposed to have snow cover for another 2 weeks. And that ring should move another couple hundreds miles North in the next couple days. It doesn't mean more snow won't fall there. But it's the same song and dance we have seen take place the last decade again.

If we get to late May and June with 6-9 million square kilometers of regions without snow cover again. We will see more of what we saw last year where almost the entire Northern Hemisphere land regions were above normal. It is also bad news for sea ice and glacial land ice.

The reason snow cover in Spring is paramount. Is that in combination with thermal lag from the oceans since the water takes longer to absorb heat help slow and mitigate the impact the Sun would have on regions from 50-80 North in Spring as it goes on. Right now in the "Red Ring" you see is running about 46-49N. This torch may be of typical strength but that is a lot of region where daily surface albedo during a HP sitting ridge torch and warm down-sloping winds from regions also above normal will help bring even warmer air over that region.

Today high temps up to the snow line are forecasted to reach the mid to upper 50s along the edge of it in that red area. While 850s of 5-8C push we'll North of the snow line but surface temps are only reach the upper 30s and low 40s South of it. But about a 100 mile long stretch at the snow side edge of the line is expected to reach mid to upper 40s. This may seem trivial but if the snow pack was further South it would be harder for the warmth to penetrate as deep into the snowpack as it does ATTM.

The next 3-4 days the snow pack in SW Russis and Khazakstan is Gonna take a beating.

[michsnowfreak]

Interesting trends for snowcover in the U.S. this winter. "According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the winter average snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was 1.3 million square miles, which was 127,000 square miles above average. This marked the 15th-largest seasonal snow cover extent on record. Snow cover records go back to 1966".

 

Also it is looking like the upper midwest, particular the U.P. of MI, will have a very late snowmelt this year.

[Jonger]

Interesting trends for snowcover in the U.S. this winter. "According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the winter average snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was 1.3 million square miles, which was 127,000 square miles above average. This marked the 15th-largest seasonal snow cover extent on record. Snow cover records go back to 1966".

 

Also it is looking like the upper midwest, particular the U.P. of MI, will have a very late snowmelt this year.

Big melt coming up in Badrecordstan.

[The_Global_Warmer]

 

The key is keeping the snow albedo effect going as long as possible.  This is a pretty general guide to what's going on and where.  Without topography, latitude, sun angle, snow depth, snow water content, snow melt.  It's more of less a general guide.

 

 

This isn't just about how the snow cover will effect sea ice.  Also glaciers and global temps.

 

Canadian Land Ice is being ravished vs a decade ago and before that. 

 

 

Snow surpluses below 50N I have noticed by looking threw recent years in March and early April if there is any are pretty irrelevant.  Because by early April they will be gone regardless.  But if the snow surplus is not just from pattern variance but the bottom of the pack it can help the upstream a bit from torching.  Not aiding in the Sun's dirty work.

 

 

 

 

Canada is looking rather solid and should be into the start of April at least.

[The_Global_Warmer]

[skierinvermont]

I don't think the feedback is quite as strong as you might think.

 

There were years in the 60s 70s and 80s that had snow area anomalies similar to many recent years. But those years were not nearly as warm as recent years. 

 

For example 1968 had one of the lowest snow cover extents April thru September in modern history, yet northern hemisphere summer global temperatures were -.05C below average (a whole .6C below most recent years with similar snow cover). Annual arctic temperatures were also .05C below average, which is a solid 1.5C below most recent years with similar snow anomalies.

 

Again, the determining factor was largely CO2. Not albedo feedbacks.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't think the feedback is quite as strong as you might think.

 

There were years in the 60s 70s and 80s that had snow area anomalies similar to many recent years. But those years were not nearly as warm as recent years. 

 

For example 1968 had one of the lowest snow cover extents April thru September in modern history, yet northern hemisphere summer global temperatures were -.05C below average (a whole .6C below most recent years with similar snow cover). Annual arctic temperatures were also .05C below average, which is a solid 1.5C below most recent years with similar snow anomalies.

 

Again, the determining factor was largely CO2. Not albedo feedbacks.

 

You are taking it way out of context. 

 

And wouldn't the same situation as 1968 be a larger feedback with GHG levels so much higher today?

[skierinvermont]

 

You are taking it way out of context. 

 

And wouldn't the same situation as 1968 be a larger feedback with GHG levels so much higher today?

 

If the near-record low snow cover anomalies April-September 1968 caused nearly no warming in 1968 (which was a cold year for the globe, NH and arctic) then it will cause nearly no warming today. 

 

There is nearly no short-term correlation to be detected between annual fluctuations in snowcover and annual temperatures. Of course, theoretically there must be a small correlation. But as I've shown before, albedo anomalies of 1 or 2 million sq km theoretically (and empirically) don't make a whole lot of difference globally or even regionally. 

 

Anomalies of 5+ do start to make a small difference.

[SVT450R]

[PhillipS]

nhtime-1year.png

 

Notice the baseline difference between the charts Friv posted from Rutgers (1971 - 2000) and the chart you posted from FSU (1995 - 2009).  Ignoring the fact that FSU's 15 year baseline period isn't really kosher for climate data, if you want an apples-to-apples comparison you need to normalize the plots to the same baseline.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Snow cover is well above normal ATM because of blocking creating transient snow in the Lower latitudes.

We had a foot two days ago and with 850s of -8C and a deep NW flow we have still lost 75% of the snow it's amazing on one hand that we can get a foot of snow at 38N this late and then with a very cold air mass the sun rips threw the snow while its only 35F. But it would of been 55af without it.

[ben4vols]

Snow cover is well above normal ATM because of blocking creating transient snow in the Lower latitudes.

We had a foot two days ago and with 850s of -8C and a deep NW flow we have still lost 75% of the snow it's amazing on one hand that we can get a foot of snow at 38N this late and then with a very cold air mass the sun rips threw the snow while its only 35F. But it would of been 55af without it.

 

It would have hit 55?  Really?  Down here in Nashville, with no snow cover, we haven't been above 40 degrees for 3 days now.  Todays high looks to be in the upper 40's with mostly sunny skies. 

[ORH_wxman]

It would have hit 55?  Really?  Down here in Nashville, with no snow cover, we haven't been above 40 degrees for 3 days now.  Todays high looks to be in the upper 40's with mostly sunny skies. 

 

 

Extremely unlikely with -8C 850 temps. He tried to claim this last year too.

 

That would be a lapse rate of roughly 13-14C/km. The dry adiabatic lapse rate is 9.8C/km. 850mb temps were around -10C too anyway, and not -8C. There's bascally zero chance you would get to 55F under those circumstances.

[HailMan06]

Snow cover is well above normal ATM because of blocking creating transient snow in the Lower latitudes.

We had a foot two days ago and with 850s of -8C and a deep NW flow we have still lost 75% of the snow it's amazing on one hand that we can get a foot of snow at 38N this late and then with a very cold air mass the sun rips threw the snow while its only 35F. But it would of been 55af without it.

What are you referring to when you say "it"? Snow cover? 850 temps? Blocking? You need to be a bit more specific in what you are talking about in order to prevent confusion.

[SVT450R]

Notice the baseline difference between the charts Friv posted from Rutgers (1971 - 2000) and the chart you posted from FSU (1995 - 2009).  Ignoring the fact that FSU's 15 year baseline period isn't really kosher for climate data, if you want an apples-to-apples comparison you need to normalize the plots to the same baseline.

Never said they were comparable just posting another chart that represents snowcover.

[SVT450R]

What are you referring to when you say "it"? Snow cover? 850 temps? Blocking? You need to be a bit more specific in what you are talking about in order to prevent confusion.

Snowcover

[HailMan06]

Snowcover

I normally agree with Friv on CC but if he were referring to snowcover I have to side with Will on this one. If 850 temps were -8C the surface could possibly warm into the 50s but highly unlikely, whether there was snowcover or not. It would be different if Friv were referring to blocking or 850 temps.

[ORH_wxman]

 

I normally agree with Friv on CC but if he were referring to snowcover I have to side with Will on this one. If 850 temps were -8C the surface could possibly warm into the 50s but highly unlikely, whether there was snowcover or not. It would be different if Friv was referring to blocking or 850 temps.

 

 

You would need some mechanism to create lapse rates of 14C per km or so...extreme downsloping might do it but you aren't going to get that where he is. So I can see no way the sfc makes it to 55F with 850 temps that cold. There's a reason why well southeast of him failed to reach even 50F despite no snow cover there.

 

Yesterday's high temps:

 

 

Jackson, MS had a high of 49F under fair skies with a NW wind and 850 temps around -7C. Much higher sun angle than STL and zero snowpack. There is no support for any claim that snowpack will subtract 20 degrees from 2m temps.

[CoastalWx]

  

 

You would need some mechanism to create lapse rates of 14C per km or so...extreme downsloping might do it but you aren't going to get that where he is. So I can see no way the sfc makes it to 55F with 850 temps that cold. There's a reason why well southeast of him failed to reach even 50F despite no snow cover there.

 

Yesterday's high temps:

 

 

Jackson, MS had a high of 49F under fair skies with a NW wind and 850 temps around -7C. Much higher sun angle than STL and zero snowpack. There is no support for any claim that snowpack will subtract 20 degrees from 2m temps.

 

We've been down that road before with him too.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Maybe I misinterpreted the situation with this past storm.

 

I posted links out the Milwaukee area on here which ORH never responded to months ago about the tremendous effect snow cover has on temperatures in January.

 

I can't find those links.  I found this one showing 15F temp differences on December 1st.

 

I highly doubt during March it "couldn't" reach a 20F difference.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-special-19961130

[ORH_wxman]

 

Maybe I misinterpreted the situation with this past storm.

 

I posted links out the Milwaukee area on here which ORH never responded to months ago about the tremendous effect snow cover has on temperatures in January.

 

I can't find those links.  I found this one showing 15F temp differences on December 1st.

 

I highly doubt during March it "couldn't" reach a 20F difference.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-special-19961130

 

A couple issues there...first, there is nothing close to a 20F difference on there when you take into account elevation. Its mostly in the 10-12F range. Second, there is more of a downslope component out there to a NW or W wind than further east. However, we don't know how the wind was that day. A poorly mixed atmosphere will also cause a bit more difference in snow cover vs no snow cover...but still not 20F.

A well mixed atmosphere shows very little difference as demonstrated by the high temperatures yesterday. Explain to me how Jackson MS failed to reach 50F under fair skies and 850 temps around -7C if snow cover is so important. Or how Panama City FL on the gulf coast couldnt top 56F. They both had plenty of sun and its late March with no snow cover.

[LakeEffectKing]

  

A couple issues there...first, there is nothing close to a 20F difference on there when you take into account elevation. Its mostly in the 10-12F range. Second, there is more of a downslope component out there to a NW or W wind than further east. However, we don't know how the wind was that day. A poorly mixed atmosphere will also cause a bit more difference in snow cover vs no snow cover...but still not 20F.

A well mixed atmosphere shows very little difference as demonstrated by the high temperatures yesterday. Explain to me how Jackson MS failed to reach 50F under fair skies and 850 temps around -7C if snow cover is so important. Or how Panama City FL on the gulf coast couldnt top 56F. They both had plenty of sun and its late March with no snow cover.

To your point Will, (if I recall correctly) when I inquired many years ago to someone with model knowledge, it was explained to me that with full sun in the early spring at the mid-lats, modeling equations would generally result in only a few degrees of negative impact on temperature, all else being equal.  I believe it was mentioned at that time (20 some years ago) that the models also resolved the depth of snowcover, with a deeper snowcover resulting in a bit more lowering impact on temps during full sun.  I'm not sure how much improvement/refining has been done with today's models in that regard.

[Jonger]

Maybe I misinterpreted the situation with this past storm.

 

I posted links out the Milwaukee area on here which ORH never responded to months ago about the tremendous effect snow cover has on temperatures in January.

 

I can't find those links.  I found this one showing 15F temp differences on December 1st.

 

I highly doubt during March it "couldn't" reach a 20F difference.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=climate-special-19961130

20 would be a stretch, but 10-15F could happen.

[The_Global_Warmer]

  

A couple issues there...first, there is nothing close to a 20F difference on there when you take into account elevation. Its mostly in the 10-12F range. Second, there is more of a downslope component out there to a NW or W wind than further east. However, we don't know how the wind was that day. A poorly mixed atmosphere will also cause a bit more difference in snow cover vs no snow cover...but still not 20F.

A well mixed atmosphere shows very little difference as demonstrated by the high temperatures yesterday. Explain to me how Jackson MS failed to reach 50F under fair skies and 850 temps around -7C if snow cover is so important. Or how Panama City FL on the gulf coast couldnt top 56F. They both had plenty of sun and its late March with no snow cover.

 

I already said I was wrong in that situation.  So I don't have to explain anything sorry that is not enough for you. But if you feel the need to show off then so be it.

 

 

I hope the NAM is wrong tomorrow if the snow cover still exists as it depicts it will be an interesting test.  Since it has low to mid 30s over the remaining snow pack with temps within 30-40 miles reaching the upper 50s where no snow cover exists. 

 

that is a 20-25F difference. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In two days the nam has a 30F temp difference in the Dakotas because of snow cover.  Obviously the NAM on crack. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I want to apologize for my snarky behavior. I hate being like that and it clearly helps no one.

It's obvious snow cover doesn't always create 15-20-25F temp differences in local areas during Spring. It's also clear sometimes it has a large effect on surface temperatures.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The NAM has upped the ante tomorrow.  Probably to cold with the snow in the Dakotas.  But has mid to upper 60s with low to mid 30as next to each other tomorrow afternoon, showing a temp gradient of 30-35F over 30-40 miles along the snow line.

 

I doubt it's only in the low to mid 30s.

 

But this is exactly the kind of thing I was trying to illustrate before.

[ORH_wxman]

The NAM has upped the ante tomorrow.  Probably to cold with the snow in the Dakotas.  But has mid to upper 60s with low to mid 30as next to each other tomorrow afternoon, showing a temp gradient of 30-35F over 30-40 miles along the snow line.

 

I doubt it's only in the low to mid 30s.

 

But this is exactly the kind of thing I was trying to illustrate before.

 

 

Most of that difference is not snow cover, its a weak surface low tracking neat the ND/SD border. MN is snow covered and near 50 up near the Canadian border.