mnweather Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The GFS, Euro, and NAM are indicating a late season winter storm coming out of the Rockies towards the end of the weekend. The GGEM is not as impressive though. It looks to be having some issues with phasing. Exact track and amounts are too early to say but this does look like it has some good potential to dump on someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 St. Patty's Day snowstorm shaping up for parts of ND & MN...the euro which has been horrible all winter on most events up here has caved towards the gfs and nails most of ND & n MN with heavy snow & wind. Depending on if the energy splits or not, there could be some high totals in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 GFK again in the jackpot zone...WPC 3 day 12" snow prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 From DLH. Looks like the NAM is the outlier to them. It has been pretty far north this year in its extended range so this could be one of those times again. We'll see.... .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO AREAS: LINGERING LAKEENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE GOGEBICRANGE SATURDAY NIGHT....AND LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLYENTERING WRN EDGE OF CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWERIN PRECIP ARRIVAL FROM WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER NRN PLAINSSUNDAY. SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IS COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF TWOSEPARATE STREAMS OF FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS NRN OUTLIER OF SFC LOW TRACKAS IT ALLOWS SFC LOW TO BE CARRIED WELL NORTH OF OTHER MDLS BYSPLITTING OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROF. WILL LEAN WITH NON-NAM/SREFCONSENSUS FOR NOW UNTIL SIGNALS DEVELOP OF POSSIBLE SHIFT NORTH. ITIS TOO DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER INJECTION/PHASING OF NRNBRANCH OF JET STREAM CREATES SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF SFC SYSTEMMONDAY. ERRATIC MVMT OF SFC LOW ON GEM ALSO TESTIMONY TO MDLS LOWCONFIDENCE ON PHASING OF JET STREAM BRANCHES. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALLSTILL EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION GIVENKINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS ADVERTISED BY NWP. DEEP NATURE OF CYCLONICCIRCULATION SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING.SNOW EXPECTED AT LEAST IN ARROWHEAD AND WISC ZONES TUESDAY AS SYSTEMIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. CLOUDS ARE A CHALLENGE WEDNESDAY DUE TOUNCERTAINTY OF CIRCULATION FROM ERN SYSTEM. LATEST ALLBLENDPROCEDURE IS FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED.TEMPS REMAIN BLO CLIMO THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 417 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH... HAZEN...CENTER...BEACH...MEDORA...DICKINSON...MANDAN...BISMARCK... MARMARTH...MOTT...ELGIN...BOWMAN...HETTINGER...FORT YATES... LINTON...NAPOLEON...ASHLEY...OAKES 417 PM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013 /317 PM MDT FRI MAR 15 2013 * TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 The 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS really have some big differences with regards to the low placement at 69 hours. NAM is probably at least 100 miles north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 749 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 WHERE 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVY SNOW AREA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AND CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AS THIS STORM DEVELOPS. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS... HALSTAD...HALLOCK...ROSEAU...WARREN...NEWFOLDEN... THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON...MAHNOMEN...CANDO... LANGDON...CAVALIER...MADDOCK...LEEDS...DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON... NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY... MAYVILLE...ADAMS 749 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE STRONG THROUGH MONDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ON SUNDAY AND NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ON MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE IN BLOWING SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE ON MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OF 6 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 845 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013 ...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... .A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP AND BRING A QUICK BURST OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STORM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIVE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK...AS WELL AS THE ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...AND CAUSE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94 WEST OF ST CLOUD AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE THE WORST ALONG NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS... GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR... LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON... GAYLORD...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER 845 PM CDT SAT MAR 16 2013 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING...AND STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. * WINDS/VISIBILITY: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 NAM lapse rates across SW MN. Impressive stuff for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 MPX upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN...SOUTHERN ANDPORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING....A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING A QUICK BURST OF 2 TO5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ACROSSTHE REGION. THIS STORM WILL DRIVE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT THROUGHMINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY.WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND50 MPH WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERNMINNESOTA...PERSISTING INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THESE STRONGWINDS WILL INTERACT WITH THE NEW SNOW AND CAUSE WHITE OUTCONDITIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE35...INCLUDING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA. SLIGHTLYLIGHTER WINDS AND MORE TREES SHOULD PRECLUDE BLIZZARD CONDITIONSOVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...INCLUDINGHENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TWIN CITIESMETRO.INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AMCDT TUESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* WINDS/VISIBILITY: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN AREAS.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES.* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Drove back to UND last afternoon and evening and visibilities were just awful from Sisseton to Fargo. I did find it fascinating how much a difference shelterbelts and even CRP areas made in terms of visibility. The long grass would catch just enough snow to make driving much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Snow has come down pretty good for me this morning up in the arrowhead. In a bit of a lull right now but radar looks good upstream. Probably 1.5" down so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Around 2.5" here...visibility is low as winds are picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 about 4" here now still heavy snow with about 1/4 mile vis, which is better than just an hour or so ago. Looks to be winding down here soon. Lights winds so far, waiting for the big wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Grand Forks is getting destroyed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Nice burst of moderate snow now. Probably about 3" down. Nice little event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 They closed campus this morning not an hour after saying it would be open all day. The upgrade to the Warning must have been what did it for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Couple pics of the ground blizzard that's occurring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 They closed campus this morning not an hour after saying it would be open all day. The upgrade to the Warning must have been what did it for them. Shocked they closed for this. We had so many worse blizzards over the years and they never closed. UND was famous for not closing for anything for a number of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 What's your snow depth?? You guys have just been hammered all winter long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Official depth is 12", although it varies quite a bit from place to place with the drifting. We're actually right around normal as far as total snowfall for the winter. It seems that a lot of it has fallen this month though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Official depth is 12", although it varies quite a bit from place to place with the drifting. We're actually right around normal as far as total snowfall for the winter. It seems that a lot of it has fallen this month though Snow depth is always a controversial topic. NWS measures in an open field to the east of the office and thus is prone to lots of blowing....thus it can never get really deep there. The snow depth in the field is not representative of in town....where snow depths in flat backyards in protected areas easily are 20-30 inches. That makes comparing snow depths from place to place or observer to observer rather arbitary. Most coops take measurements in their yard and thus in many cases their values are going to be a lot higher than the nearby fields. So snow depth is certainly not a uniform number....and is only for the point and area where it is taken and cannot be made to be representative of any larger area. It is my contentiion we should include some of the higher drifts in the tree line around the field (where the rugby club plays) and include that in with the open field measurements to combine both. I went out there last evening to measure and got 20-24 inches on the way out to the field between the parking lot and the tree line....then places with 12-14 in the field that had been blown over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I was out in the Black Hills area on the 17th and ran into some harsh conditions, especially in eastern WY. Posted some pictures and the story here > http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39759-march-2013-general-discussion-part-2/page-3#entry2224384 Few more: Badlands. Not so harsh in the Hills, but snowy. Rapid City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Nice pics, Geos. It was a pretty impressive storm. Strong winds to 50 mph in NE MN and power outages as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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