Full March 4-8 Discussion, Aftermath, and My Divine Intervention Occurences

[TheSnowman]

What can be said about March 5-8, 2013? Because we really have to do a full synopsis of this storm system. Models, Met interpretation, Meteorological Analysis, and the RI screw zone from the devil’s layer. It’s our job to analyze this as weather fanatics, and on a deeper scale to further humanity. But there were also things about this storm that, for me, were like some divine intervention. Seriously. I’ll explain here amongst more tangible things we need to go over.

We can talk about how for the First time in recorded history, the Foxboro, MA area and the Worcester, MA area had TWO 2 foot snowstorms in a Season. Furthermore, this is now the Only season that has 2 storms on Worcester's Top 10 list, outside of going back far enough after the onset of record keeping. It was also Worcester’s #1 March storm, and #2 Post February Storm.

We could talk about how we Now have a Definitive answer on the age old argument - Do you like a Winter with 2 or so Awesome events / 2 or so High Snowfall Total events with not much else in the winter and hardly any holding of the snowpack - OR - a Winter with snow that lasts even if there are No epic events (2002-2003, 2010-2011 are the best examples that had both and wy they are dear to us, 2004-2005 and 2012-2013 (so far) didn't retain their awesome storms snowfall well)? Even if the answer is Both evenly, as long as it's a winter that's as good as One of those 2 choices. I Know many of you differ on this argument - but you should know by now because of this storm, and the fact that it has almost all melted already. My answer is Both evenly, and I didn't realize it until after This storm. Always thought I liked the winters with little snowpack but 2 Epic storms vs. no epic storms but lots of retaining of the snow that falls. I am more right down the middle I know now.

We can talk about how maybe, just Maybe, This will be the storm that broke the camel’s back for getting all meteorologists together to March on Washington to get more Funding and Attention for our weather and the research into it. I will provide the music with my flamed accordion as I've been preaching for a protest on this for a while. The fact that NBC Nightly National News did a special on it, is a big step in the right direction. "No the European model is not referring to a woman in a beautiful dress.", I love Brian Williams; we have so much in common, like racing.

Now, time for things to start getting creepy.

We could talk about how of 17,000 – 18,000 or so model runs I've watched since I made the switch from Hardcore Snow Lover, to Hardcore Snow Lover that dives into the statistics of winter and actively follows storms including staying up until 1:15am for Will’s wonderful PBP of the Euro, I decided to record a model with my camera. It so happened, that That model run, was the Sunday night 3/4/2013 00z GFS model; the First model run that showed the storm really Hitting us, and hitting us at a 10” – 30” snowstorm level. Bad model? I think not when you talk long range. WHY I decided to record myself watching THIS model run, I DO NOT KNOW! But I felt after Tuesday at 1pm (which I’ll talk about in a second) it was Destiny for me that I would nail this storm. All other guidance was 400 miles or so South and out to sea with this system. No idea, why I filmed it.

We can talk about how in the video, I typed “For the First time Ever I decided to Film myself looking at a model. AMAZINGLY - I ended up catching one of the The All-Time Greatest surprises I have ever seen….”. Well little did I know, I completely called that as well, as this was an All-Timer for surprises on TV Mets and other Mets (I heard Many said “In the XX years I have been a Meteorologist, this storm has done multiple things I have never seen.”). I also talked about how we could Steal the Ravens storm for them taking our AFC Championship Game.

We ended up with 10” – 25”. Baltimore………. Ended up with a Trace. The rest of the guidance had the exact opposite at that point of the video on Sunday Night, with big snowfall fro Baltimore South and West, and no snow to flurries for Southern New England.

We could talk about how almost No TV Met came close to predicting this storm right. The worst part is that they didn’t believe the precipitation totals And that snow could stick well in the day in March. Really? The even Worser part actually, is that they did not Inform people that “some models” were “continuing” to “hint” at Big Snow, even though “Many models” were “Consistently” “Pointing at” Big Snow. Paul Kocin was infuriated at this aspect himself of so many Mets Not even Mentioning the possibility (I mean the Euro had run after run after run of big snow by Thursday. It’s been the best model WHY not say anything on air?). I felt confident enough by Tuesday early afternoon that I Proudly Bashed the Facebook pages of some TV Mets that had the worst forecasts and / or no mention of possible moderate (at least moderate) snow. Their “Mostly Rain and 1” – 3” of snow in some areas” predictions were making me sick. Moreover, I felt SO Strongly about a 12”-20” Snowstorm that I posted this on my Own page, “What is occurring right now in the TV Meteorology World (Outside of my buddy TJ Del Santo who at least talking about and showing a map of, 12”+ NW of PVD) is almost Worthy of Hollywood. It is simply Unfathomable. And it proves it by not one person yet calling me to say "Hey Cory, is there a storm coming?” . Some forecasts for your laughing pleasure – And these are just from ONE of the 10 or so major stations around CT, RI, MA:

Classic example of a forecast by Mets on Tuesday while I was already preaching 12” – 20”: http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8550823-wbz-accuweather-midday-forecast-for-march-5/

This was 11pm on THURSDAY NIGHT! "Those jackpots of 10" or so...". How about Widespread 12"-26" just 12 hours later! Freaking 12 Hours later!: http://boston.cbslocal.com/video/8578371-wbz-accuweather-forecast-for-march-8/

I am no meteorologist, not even close to a long shot. I barely know that H5 means the 500mb chart. Because of this, I try to Never get on a mets case in any serious manner, 98% of the it's joking and they all know it. I'm a weenie and I know it. Proud of it, and So Proud of my name. There will be a storm soon I am fairly bullish on and I’ll get 1”, it’s coming don’t worry. Happened in the past for sure haha. But I am a statistician through and through. It's what made me well known in this field with my Hurricane Records Lists, and Winter record papers. So I go by trends I see, and try to analyze seeing trends that are more specific; trends most people don’t see. Just for plain and simple ones - I always believe when a storm is out to see it has a Good chance to come north, because I see it happen quite a bit, and Especially this year it has been the case. I see that this year has more of a golden spoon up its snow hole, and if there’s a slight chance for snow, it’s going to snow more than not.

We can Surely talk about, and NEED to analyze What the Flippin Ba Jeezuz happened in Rhode Island over about 38 hours of the 48 hours that existed in this storm (also, for a fun stat, this was the Longest duration snow system I’ve ever experienced, beating out the Dec. 5-7, 2003 Snowstorm that dropped 21”. I do remember a system in March of about 10 years ago where it snowed 71 hours basically non-stop. Only dropped about 10” if I remember correctly. I can look it up as Will will remember the system perfectly). Paul Kocin could not explain what was going on, and I talked to him for a while. We really need to figure out What happened; get radar loops and other loops together, and figure this out. It was so So SO interesting.

Here’s where it gets more creepy than just the video of me filming the GFS - On Monday , I posted about my friend Hallie, who seems to have an INCREDIBLY important effect on our winter weather. At 12:37pm on the 4th, I posted - MAJOR PREDICTION - I now Know that this storm will be no better than "OK" for us. This methodology has worked like a charm this season. My Friend, Hallie, from Texas, who isn't really a fan of our region, came up to do a 1 year Masters at BU. In the time she has been in Boston, she has seen about 10" of snow:

All the time she has been here, the models show something, and it doesn't really pan out. But -

She went on a 2 week vacation in late December and Missed - The Dec. 29th Bombogenisis Storm!

She had to go to a funeral out of Nowhere and had to leave February 7th, and came back on February 11th RIGHT as the Snow changed to rain on that Monday morning!! Literally - Missed the Biblical Blizzard of 2013!

She is leaving Thursday morning for Spring Break - Perfect Right!?!? Except - The storm is supposed to be in Full Swing by then - Hence: No Good Storm.

As the day went on into Tuesday, it seemed as if the meat of the storm would be from Thursday morning onward and afterward. At this point, I was now 99% sure that this was coming at full throttle as long as got the heck out of here. When she left, Meteorologists where still pointing at a 6”-10” at the very Best, and certainly no where NEAR 20”+ for parts of CT or a Historical total in the Worcester area. Then she left, and it all changed, and headed towards the totals that I had been pounding for days.

Explaining my reasoning with the models and the tangible part of my forecasting - the statistics side of me is the only real forecasting I can do in terms of trends I try to find as I explained. To me, this was very straight forward. The GFS is great at pointing out aspects long range, it’s one thing it Can do. The fact that it is still a more trusted model vs. models that are in our laughable category like the JMA, tells me if IT shows something that is Vastly different than any other model and it’s over 100 hours out but not over 140 hours, I believe it. And it shows in the video how excited I was. I would not say I was going to Preach 20” of snow to people at that point, but I certainly felt confident enough ALREADY to write what I wrote. When the EURO and others began to come north, I started to become extremely confident.

Coupled with both The Hallie Factor becoming a full Positive effect instead of a full Negative effect because of the time of storm change, and the 1 in 17,550 chance I filmed myself with the 3/4/13 00z GFS, I felt divine intervention that this was My storm giving me the Complete confidence to not only post, but Bash others in public iew about a 12”-20” storm coming by Tuesday afternoon.

I wonder if the stars aligning for me has to do with why out of all the storms we have watched in at least the last 15 years, and maybe ever, This storm gave My state, almost EXACTLY boarder to boarder to boarder (as if the storm KNEW the lines of Rhode Island) the most Incredible Screw Job. Watch the 48 hours of the storm on radar, and you might believe that coupled with all I just wrote, I might have put a jinx in the matrix.

Shockingly, I underdid my prediction. Should have gone with 12”-25”. Haha!

If you want a Final piece of information to decide if this storm had some special and freaky connection with me – want to guess where I just finished this piece and where I will post it from? I can’t believe this because I didn’t even Realize it until after I boarded the plane 45 minutes ago………..

BWI in BALITMORE, MARYLAND!!!! I CAN NOT BELIEVE THIS! I DIDN’T EVEN REALIZE THIS WAS MY CONNECTION UNTIL TODAY!!!!!! And I just finished this on the plane – My next chance at an Internet connection to post = BALTIMORE! Of all flippin places.

God works in mysterious ways. I’m a believer in that now.

[TheSnowman]

BWI. Where I am another 45 minutes. Incredible.

[Ginx snewx]

Lol Cory, "who cares about Tolland, nobody cares about Tolland"

[TheSnowman]

Lol Cory, "who cares about Tolland, nobody cares about Tolland"

I knew if this storm did happen you guys could get an LOL out of that haha. So many people in Tolland. And they win Again! Certainly did not think Mt. Tolland would get those amounts. No way.

[joey2002]

lol 1:23-1:33 is classic... can you make a separate clip of just those 10 seconds? 

[ORH_wxman]

Corey...this is not the only season that has two top 10 snowstorms for ORH..at least if you go by running history. 1992-1993 had December 1992 and March 1993...32.1" and 20.1" respectively....both top 10 at the time. Though if you look at it in retrospect, March 1993 is no longer top 10. But at the time it was.

 

This season has two top 10 as currently stands, so that is a bit more impressive, though neither can match the Dec 1992 storm.

[OSUmetstud]

Corey...this is not the only season that has two top 10 snowstorms for ORH..at least if you go by running history. 1992-1993 had December 1992 and March 1993...32.1" and 20.1" respectively....both top 10 at the time. Though if you look at it in retrospect, March 1993 is no longer top 10. But at the time it was.

 

This season has two top 10 as currently stands, so that is a bit more impressive, though neither can match the Dec 1992 storm.

Will I was wondering if there was ever a 100" winter in ORH but a much below average winter in BUF, before this year?  What are your 100" years again?

[wxmanmitch]

Will I was wondering if there was ever a 100" winter in ORH but a much below average winter in BUF, before this year?  What are your 100" years again?

 

Or a winter where ORH gets > 100" and PSF gets < 50"? Although I think PSF will break 50" with the upcoming pattern (maybe 60"?), it's not likely that we're not going to get to our normal winter snowfall in the mid 70s. I'm at 46" currently and I think PSF may be at 49". I can't ever recall a winter where areas west of the Berkshire crest have been screwed this badly relative to the rest of SNE. Although I'm not in a primo spot like Peru or West Chesterfield, we usually do well compared to most of SNE. Absolutely bizarre snowfall distribution this winter due to some mammoth coastals that have gone near or just outside the BM as opposed to the more frequent run of the mill events that typically deliver for this neck of the woods.

[weatherMA]

Yeah, there are few areas with similar averages with about the same snow. I have Plymouths total at only 50" even and although we get it in a different way then the western Berkshires, we probably average about 70-75" as well up here.

[ORH_wxman]

Will I was wondering if there was ever a 100" winter in ORH but a much below average winter in BUF, before this year?  What are your 100" years again?

 

 

Years with 100"+ at ORH:

 

2012-2013

2004-2005

2002-2003

2000-2001

1995-1996

1993-1994

1992-1993

1960-1961

 

Years that were very close to 100":

 

2010-2011

1986-1987

1971-1972

1966-1967

1957-1958

1947-1948

[OSUmetstud]

2004-2005 109.1"

2002-2003 111.3"

2000-2001 158.7"

1995-1996 141.4"

1993-1994 112.7"

1992-1993 93.2"

1960-1961 102.4"

2010-2011 111.8"

1986-1987 67.5"

1971-1972 109.9'

1966-1967 66.1"

1957-1958 124.7"

1947-1948 42.1"

 

Looks like 1987, 1967, and 1948 do fall into that "dichotomy" category.  Though the general trend is for us to both do well.

 

so far this year: 53.8"

[TheSnowman]

Corey...this is not the only season that has two top 10 snowstorms for ORH..at least if you go by running history. 1992-1993 had December 1992 and March 1993...32.1" and 20.1" respectively....both top 10 at the time. Though if you look at it in retrospect, March 1993 is no longer top 10. But at the time it was.

 

This season has two top 10 as currently stands, so that is a bit more impressive, though neither can match the Dec 1992 storm.

Right right, that's why I had put "outside of going back far enough after the onset of record keeping." though I should have been more specific as I just felt the 20.1" Superstorm total was not quite worthy enough lol.  Barely 20" for Worcester, Massachusetts is Top 10 in 1993??  Lol.  Though I DID Text you on Sunday saying "Did 1992-1993 have a similar situation".  But Shocked that 20.1" was in the Top 10 in Worcester All-Time that recently.  Show's what has been going on since 1992.  

 

And Yes RedSoxDude, I can make a special clip that came become the Classic thing to post as SOON as someone mentions "How much for Tolland?".  How many people on these blogs are from there?  4?  

[tamarack]

Corey...this is not the only season that has two top 10 snowstorms for ORH..at least if you go by running history. 1992-1993 had December 1992 and March 1993...32.1" and 20.1" respectively....both top 10 at the time. Though if you look at it in retrospect, March 1993 is no longer top 10. But at the time it was.

 

This season has two top 10 as currently stands, so that is a bit more impressive, though neither can match the Dec 1992 storm.

 

I know the mid-late 1990s records for ORH are a mess, but wasn't there a 20"+ storm in Dec 1996 to bookend 4/1/97?

[ORH_wxman]

I know the mid-late 1990s records for ORH are a mess, but wasn't there a 20"+ storm in Dec 1996 to bookend 4/1/97?

 

 

26.3" for Dec 6-8, 1996...but it is technically listed as two storms. 10.0" and 16.3". Its similar to how February 8-11, 1994 was actually two storms...but for some reason that one gets classified as one event and the 1996 one does not.

[joey2002]

And Yes RedSoxDude, I can make a special clip that came become the Classic thing to post as SOON as someone mentions "How much for Tolland?".  How many people on these blogs are from there?  4?  

 

I'm not sure the exact number of posters, but Kevin alone made Tolland famous, lol. 

[heavy_wx]

Years with 100"+ at ORH:

 

2012-2013

2004-2005

2002-2003

2000-2001

1995-1996

1993-1994

1992-1993

1960-1961

 

Years that were very close to 100":

 

2010-2011

1986-1987

1971-1972

1966-1967

1957-1958

1947-1948

 

Interesting that ALB had above normal snowfall during all of those seasons except our current one, with about a 10" defecit right now.

[TheSnowman]

SHOCKINGLY - After adding the last 2 storms to my SNE Snowstorm Point System (which is specifically for storms, not snow retention, which 2010-2011 was of course Far far better), Everyone outside of the NW part of SNE (All of Western MA) had a Slightly to Solidly Better winter than 2010-2011.  Helped of course by the Biblical Blizzard of 2013.  

 

What is really shocking though, is HOW Much worse the NW part of SNE did this year vs. 2010-2011.  123 points in 2010-2011 to 63 points this season.