Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I think KTAN will jackpot next week though, get the SREFS ready Jackpot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Its useless and you or anyone else cannot convince me otherwise. When NWS can not trust it inside 36 hours, cmon dude. its run to run variability is off the hook. Look how far out of touch it was with ALL guidance inside 36 hrs last storm. So you're completely ignoring it picked up the signal 6 days out? Who's arguing otherwise inside 48hrs...I did that ad nauseum yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Its useless and you or anyone else cannot convince me otherwise. When NWS can not trust it inside 36 hours, cmon dude. its run to run variability is off the hook. Look how far out of touch it was with ALL guidance inside 36 hrs last storm. LOL, the Euro's been waffling with a N or S system for Saturday for 2 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 It's a new set of data folks, 12z. That doesn't mean the euro will be right at 00z...you're jumping the gun and we've seen the run change every 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Jackpot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 It's a new set of data folks, 12z. That doesn't mean the euro will be right at 00z...you're jumping the gun and we've seen the run change every 12hrs.One with a nice hit and one showing sunny and 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Going over the last 24 hours of teleconnector spread ... a position through the GL next week would not be suggested. Be that as it may, the models are pretty unanimous (less the 12z Euro just yet) at insisting that will happen. The oper. GFS is interesting in the way it cheats; instead of dealing with a deep layer impulse translation through the east, it opts to simply fuse/phase the impulse into the southern and eastern Canadian PV very early - done deal, no impulse left to deal with. Very convenient. I suppose that's possible. Euro's doing something similar. The system over the weekend doesn't exist on this GFS run. Really has all but completely disappeared. As is, this operational run looks like partly sunny, with mostly cloudy relegated to the south coast, no snow anywhere. That one level green spattering you see on the QPF charts is rarely every observed on the ground. For synoptic-scaled events you almost need that 2nd level on the charts before anything gets over evaporation and other nuances enough to wet the ground. In the summer, it can mean conditional instability with day-time heating/thunder, but not so much in an antecedent cold/dry incursion with a barely discerned wave rippling/suppressing S up under the weight of a crushing -NAO. It's an elephant sitting on a mouse pattern - Buuut, probably not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 One with a nice hit and one showing sunny and 46 I'm not advocating for any model, but let the 12z data role out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 It's a new set of data folks, 12z. That doesn't mean the euro will be right at 00z...you're jumping the gun and we've seen the run change every 12hrs.yeah and probably why the UKMET looks like the Euro, nbd really anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 yeah and probably why the UKMET looks like the Euro, nbd really anyways. The ukie can be horrible too. It wasn't great in the last storm. Jeez, just let the runs finish..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 The ukie can be horrible too. It wasn't great in the last storm. Jeez, just let the runs finish..lol.You are missing my point, if you agree it's horrible at 48, how can that change at 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You are missing my point, if you agree it's horrible at 48, how can that change at 72? Well considering the euro has flopped around with this storm every 12hrs, I don't think it's stable either. How quickly we forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You know .. .this has been a game that has been recurring since last autumn. We end up looking down the barrel of these favorable patterns and teleconnector spread intervals, then the models seemingly deconstructing waves us a direct challenge/competition against those signals. The tele's arrive, the operational models evolve a big storm, then it's 8 or 10 cycles immediately thereafter, as though they "realized", oops - gotta keep 'em unhappy. haha. It is not so ironic, then, that the one truly successful blizzard actually took place with a flat, almost non-suggestive pattern altogether - that's creepy. Seriously though, what has to be done in a -NAO and a small but real PNA spike to get a storm NOT to wind up through the GL - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Ukie looks pretty nice at 72h for Saturday. Beyond that it looks as though it shears out underneath us. Maybe I'm wrong but it does not look as though it would come N in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You know .. .this has been a game that has been recurring since last autumn. We end up looking down the barrel of these favorable patterns and teleconnector spread intervals, then the models seemingly deconstructing waves us a direct challenge/competition against those signals. The tele's arrive, the operational models evolve a big storm, then it's 8 or 10 cycles immediately thereafter, as though they "realized", oops - gotta keep 'em unhappy. haha. It is not so ironic, then, that the one truly successful blizzard actually took place with a flat, almost non-suggestive pattern altogether - that's creepy. Seriously though, what has to be done in a -NAO and a small but real PNA spike to get a storm NOT to wind up through the GL - wow Trust me, I am bashing my head through windows here...We have seemingly a good pattern yet the storms cut through the Lakes. Then after the storm cuts it gets cold and the pattern looks good again yet the next shortwave cuts through the Lakes. I have given up here. Good luck to you guys up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Well considering the euro has flopped around with this storm every 12hrs, I don't think it's stable either. How quickly we forget.no I remember very well that all the mets who rode the GFS busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 You know .. .this has been a game that has been recurring since last autumn. We end up looking down the barrel of these favorable patterns and and teleconnector spread intervals, then the models seemingly deconstructing waves us a direct challenge/competition against those signals. The tele's arrive, the operational models evolve a big storm, then it's 8 or 10 cycles immediately thereafter, as though they "realized", oops - gotta keep 'em unhappy. haha. It is not so ironic, then, that the one truly successful blizzard actually took place with a flat, almost non-suggestive pattern altogether - that's creepy. Seriously though, what has to be done in a -NAO and a small but real PNA spike to get a storm NOT to wind up through the GL - wow some folks who had 0! FEB 1 are now mid 60s, others are over 200% of normal, I would say the pattern has produced pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 no I remember very well that all the mets who rode the GFS busted I'm talking about the euro for this weekend. It was north, south, north, south..etc. Like I said..I'm not advocating any model, but I'd like to see what the 12z euro has before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Trust me, I am bashing my head through windows here...We have seemingly a good pattern yet the storms cut through the Lakes. Then after the storm cuts it gets cold and the pattern looks good again yet the next shortwave cuts through the Lakes. I have given up here. Good luck to you guys up there. Well.. just think, in 40 days it really won't matter until next winter. With on-going multi-seasonal moisture deficits pretty much heralding in the climate apocalypse ... it'll be 100 to 120F from Kansas to D.C. again, with glancing blows of 95-100 to NYC, and us ... safely contained in a convection killing persistent continental NW counter-balancing boredom flow that is circuitous around the bid Midwest semi-permanent heat dome. Sarcasm aside for a moment, I am almost wondering if a kind of seasonal feed-back of runaway heating in the heartland of the U.S. kind of "causes" the NW flow in New England due to natural wave length arguments. I tell you what ... when the climate catastrophe gets more extreme, (and it will ...regardless of what the anti-GW twerps actually believe (mostly, in their own fears either blinding them from truth because they can't handle it, or because they have some pin-headed political/economic agenda that they fail to connect have 0 meaning if they are dead) you can bet dimes to donuts that it won't in NE. We will be protected by summers with NW flows around heat domes, and modulated warmer winters that push the Nor-easter storm belt permanently up into the Maritimes. We essentially become a local climate utopia in an otherwise dystopic planet or heat horrors. Anything to not storm here - that's what the models of 2012-2013 have achieved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I'm talking about the euro for this weekend. It was north, south, north, south..etc. Like I said..I'm not advocating any model, but I'd like to see what the 12z euro has before getting excited.Actually I am not excited, looks minor to me. Next week is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 some folks who had 0! FEB 1 are now mid 60s, others are over 200% of normal, I would say the pattern has produced pretty well. We are talking about the MODELS, not what has happened. The frustration is in modeling performance. Specifically, how it relates to the different pattern flavors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Well.. just think, in 40 days it really won't matter until next winter. With on-going multi-seasonal moisture deficits pretty much heralding in the climate apocalypse ... it's be 100 to 120F from Kansas to D.C. again, with glancing blows of 95-100 to NYC, and us ... safely contained in a convection killing persistent continental NW counter-balancing boredom from a flow that is circuitous around the bid Midwest semi-permanent heat dome. I tell you what ... when the climate catastrophe gets more extreme, (and it will ...regardless of what the anti-GW twerps actually believe (mostly, in their own fears either blinding them from truth because they can't handle it, or because they have some pin-headed political/economic agenda that they fail to connect have 0 meaning if they are dead) you can bet dimes to donuts that it won't in NE. We will be protected by summers with NW flows around heat domes, and modulated warmer winters that push the Nor-easter storm belt permanently up into the Maritimes. We essentially become a local climate utopia in an otherwise dystopic planet or heat horrors. Anything to not storm here - that's what the models of 2012-2013 have achieved! Judging by the damage in the last 2 years from storms up here, how can you even say this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 We are talking about the MODELS, not what has happened. The frustration is in modeling performance. Specifically, how it relates to the different pattern flavors. Well ya lost me on that one, seen lots of modeled storms work and also fail. Isn't it the models that give you the data for teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 12z GGEM is meh. Suppression depression for snow-lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 12z GGEM is meh. Suppression depression for snow-lovers.sure you got today's run lol, yeah NBD on the GGEM, actually was surprised there was a thread on this today. Seems like a minor overrunning nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 sure you got today's run lol, yeah NBD on the GGEM, actually was surprised there was a thread on this today. Seems like a minor overrunning nuisance. Kevin's riding the 2-4" wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 13, 2013 Author Share Posted March 13, 2013 It's a 2-4 Inch interior deal most likely. Can see why some are down on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 It's a 2-4 Inch interior deal most likely. Can see why some are down on it I'm going to be in NH so I really don't give 2 ****s about this meh imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Guys... Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Guys... Stop. I deleted it, why are you in Misquamicut? Did you see the pics from weekapaug, nice Pyramids down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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