Brewers Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 What do you think about the 0z GFS? It shows the thicknesses just south of here, so would be mostly snow based upon that, but the timing is not ideal (mostly from 18-0z, so during the daylight hours). The NAM, on the other hand, shifted south to more closely match the GFS, but is moisture starved, and delays the timing nearly 12 hours. I would lean more with the GFS its been pretty consistent while the NAM was the northern outlier wrt the clipper coming through tomorrow and its looks to be doing the same thing with the Friday night one. Haven't really had a chance to look at thermals but it would seem this would be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 I would lean more with the GFS its been pretty consistent while the NAM was the northern outlier wrt the clipper coming through tomorrow and its looks to be doing the same thing with the Friday night one. Haven't really had a chance to look at thermals but it would seem this would be mostly snow The surface temps will likely be above freezing, so this would be a situation where, if it were to be all snow, dynamic cooling would likely be the reason, along with the majority of the atmosphere being below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Ive actually noticed quite the opposite...clippers being UNDERDONE by the models. Of course thats more in mid-winter, been a while since weve had a March clipper. Colder systems with those clippers, this time the temps are close to marginal especially from the city South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 GFS came south tonight. MSN will not be denied! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The surface temps will likely be above freezing, so this would be a situation where, if it were to be all snow, dynamic cooling would likely be the reason, along with the majority of the atmosphere being below. Taking a look at the 12z GFS forecast sounding, since I don't have the 00z yet, showed the entire column below freezing once precipitation started. Surface temps look like they could be an issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Man, clippers this year have avoided Toronto like the plague. Strange, since in a normal year they'd be our bread and butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Man, clippers this year have avoided Toronto like the plague. Strange, since in a normal year they'd be our bread and butter. I'll glady give you my 1-2" plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Clipper #1 blasted through here (50 miles SE of the twin cities) and dusted 2.5" of powder. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Interesting...DTX added mixing/rain to my forecast but bumped up accumulations to 1-3" + maybe an inch Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 This has slowly been trending colder, and now it looks like there may be two solid periods of precip with a brief break in the middle. Looks like there could be a mix during the day tomorrow, probably from 12-18z, and then a better chance of snow, likely accumulating to an inch or two, from 0-6z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 12z nam now 0.36" all snow fot DTW. it is the first run of the nam thats all snow (in fact the nam was mostly rain til last nite) and also by far the highest qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 12z nam now 0.36" all snow fot DTW. it is the first run of the nam thats all snow (in fact the nam was mostly rain til last nite) and also by far the highest qpf. It's now during the day and it will be hard for it to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 NAM shows up to 3" here, sadly that'd be the second largest snowstorm of the season for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 18z Nam is a perfect track for MKE, a solid 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 18z Nam is a perfect track for MKE, a solid 3-4 inches. Right now I'm going to with 1-2" in the metro, with initial mixing/timing of day coming into play, making it hard for snow to accumulate initially, but then accumulating well in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 NAM wants to hit Battle Creek with 6 Inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Right now I'm going to with 1-2" in the metro, with initial mixing/timing of day coming into play, making it hard for snow to accumulate initially, but then accumulating well in the evening. Yeah 1-2" sounds good for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 NAM wants to hit Battle Creek with 6 Inches. About half that sounds right. Probably will be mostly or all snow there, but I don't think there will be enough moisture or good enough ratios for anything more than isolated reports of 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 NAM wants to hit Battle Creek with 6 Inches. Where are you seeing 6 inches? This shows 4" http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kbtl'>http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kbtl About half that sounds right. Probably will be mostly or all snow there, but I don't think there will be enough moisture or good enough ratios for anything more than isolated reports of 4"+. Yeah i don't see 6 inches happening here either. More like 2-3 would be my guess with a outside shot of 4 if the NAM by chance is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Where are you seeing 6 inches? This shows 4" http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kbtl Yeah i don't see 6 inches happening here either. More like 2-3 would be my guess with a outside shot of 4 if the NAM by chance is correct. Folks are looking at the QPF and assuming it's still January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Ive noticed that this is another poorly handled event by the models (what a surprise). It is now becoming clear that this thing will be coming in 2 pieces, and thankfully the more impressive piece looks to be overnight tomorrow, with temps below freezing. Even if we start out as light rain tomorrow afternoon, I think 2-3" is a good call for DTW, a huge majority of that coming tomorrow night. If all goes right Sat morning will dawn a winter wonderland with temps in the 20s and snow blanketing everything including the roads. Last year at this time? Highs in the 70s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 How long has it been since DTX has had plowable 2"+ snow this late in March. Off hand at least 2 seasons perhaps more. Even more of a suprise is the winter like forecasts where NOAA and EC are o n the same page this far out. Going to be a fun few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 How long has it been since DTX has had plowable 2"+ snow this late in March. Off hand at least 2 seasons perhaps more. Even more of a suprise is the winter like forecasts where NOAA and EC are o n the same page this far out. Going to be a fun few days... March 10-11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 March 10-11, 2011 Had 4.0" here that storm. Was GORGEOUS wet snow too. Though TECHNICALLY that was before mid-March. For a plowable 2"+ snow on or after March 15th, the last time would be 2008. IMBY Mar 21/22, 2008 (6.8") and Mar 27/28, 2008 (5.0"). 12z NAM is way north of all the srefs and other models now for tonights snow. We would still do ok here but its getting VERY close. Lansing would be the sweet spot (for the first time since Nov 30, 2011). Hopefully it is indeed a northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Precip looks well SW of what the models have been indicating, which would be good except temps are not busting low or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Thinking we start out as some light rain late this afternoon here but the main slug of moisture will fall in the overnight hours as snow. The system has aligned perfectly with nighttime for SE MI....thinking we see 2-3" snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Thinking we start out as some light rain late this afternoon here but the main slug of moisture will fall in the overnight hours as snow. The system has aligned perfectly with nighttime for SE MI....thinking we see 2-3" snow! Latest models have the forcing weakening as it heads into Michigan, though 2" is still likely for you, if not a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Latest models have the forcing weakening as it heads into Michigan, though 2" is still likely for you, if not a good bet. yeah....but what we lose in forcing we gain in nighttime and falling temps. Despite it being 38F now (we will probably reach or exceed 40F) temps look to tumble this evening and be in the 20s by the overnight with snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Its been all rain here...beautiful weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Precip just started as light sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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