NCWX Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 When do you think the first wide spread event for the south east will happen this spring? Can be hunches... or models. I am thinking and feeling between March 29-Apr1st will kick of the season with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 First week of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Psshtt May 8-9 on April 1974 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 April 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teru Teru Bozu Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 On 3/14/2013 at 7:38 PM, metalicwx366 said: Psshtt May 8-9 on April 1974 levels. In April 1974, the U.S. was in the midst of a fairly strong La Nina, which probably helped to both amplify the jet and allow exceptionally warm, moist air to make it all the way up as far as SE Ontario. Actually, April 2011 was also on the tail end of a La Nina period. We are in a neutral/possibly very weak La Nina period right now. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Not that neutral seasons don't ever see extreme storms. The Superstorm of '93 happened during a neutral period. I think as far as this year goes, early-mid April seems about right for the next big outbreak, at the earliest. Most of the country looks to continue this cooler-than-normal pattern for at least the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 April Fool's Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 April 15 -16 . 11 tornados MS,AL,TN , GA. , CAD saves Carolina's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm thinking mid-April. Don't think we'll see much in the way of high-end severe until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 On 3/15/2013 at 1:37 AM, mackerel_sky said: April 15 -16 . 11 tornados MS,AL,TN , GA. , CAD saves Carolina's In this type of pattern, that might actually happen.... I'll go with mid-April as well for the deep south...... and not until after the 20th for the NC folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This year's Final Four is in the Georgia Dome. Now wouldn't that be interesting if they're calling for bad weather in Atlanta that weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teru Teru Bozu Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 On 3/15/2013 at 5:14 PM, Marion_NC_WX said: This year's Final Four is in the Georgia Dome. Now wouldn't that be interesting if they're calling for bad weather in Atlanta that weekend. Ruh roh. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYQszBeM5Do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Time to bump this thread back up to the top . Looking like a solid threat mid- late next week, with plenty of warm air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 On 4/4/2013 at 12:16 AM, mackerel_sky said: Time to bump this thread back up to the top . Looking like a solid threat mid- late next week, with plenty of warm air around WRT the SE or JIG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Plains first of course, then SE towards the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teru Teru Bozu Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 On 4/4/2013 at 12:51 AM, mackerel_sky said: Plains first of course, then SE towards the end of the week So the Final Four in Atlanta's Tornadome misses out after all, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 I'll go with a benign spring with cooler than normal temps and mostly stable air masses....then an active hurricane season that will throw up some whirlers. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Was yesterday widespread enough ? Did I win? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 You lose. I'm going with June with a tropical storm that produces lots of tornadoes. Severe weather season is about over for the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Ok , you are the wiener ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, metalicwx366 said: You lose. I'm going with June with a tropical storm that produces lots of tornadoes. Severe weather season is about over for the deep south. This is more of a comment than a prediction, but Mother's Day weekend has seen some pretty nasty outbreaks in the past (at least for MBY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, metalicwx366 said: You lose. I'm going with June with a tropical storm that produces lots of tornadoes. Severe weather season is about over for the deep south. Maybe so, but more habitable areas are just getting into the meat of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, metalicwx366 said: You lose. I'm going with June with a tropical storm that produces lots of tornadoes. Severe weather season is about over for the deep south. Please go back and research further before making claims like this, the Deep South can still easily see severe weather in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 3:29 AM, andyhb said: Please go back and research further before making claims like this, the Deep South can still easily see severe weather in May. The Deep South can easily see severe weather in January and February also but that doesn't make it severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 3:55 AM, snowstorm2011 said: The Deep South can easily see severe weather in January and February also but that doesn't make it severe weather season. The winter season has nothing to do with what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 3:29 AM, andyhb said: Please go back and research further before making claims like this, the Deep South can still easily see severe weather in May.Yes I know. I was just saying that it is about over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/21/2013 at 2:52 PM, metalicwx366 said: Severe weather season is about over for the deep south. Here in Wilkes I usually luck out with (1) non forming tornado warning July-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 10:57 AM, metalicwx366 said: Yes I know. I was just saying that it is about over. Climatology says severe weather season peak in the south east is MID JUNE. The end of April usually is when the chance for TORNADOES decreases in states Like GA/TN/AL/MS...etc, but for the first part of may the tornado chance either increases or stays about the same for North Carolina. Also while the threat diminishes in the majority of the SE in June, the threat is still higher in NC. Also, July is a big severe month for Florida. On 4/22/2013 at 3:55 AM, snowstorm2011 said: The Deep South can easily see severe weather in January and February also but that doesn't make it severe weather season. Yeah. But severe weather season does not end on May 1st, despite what you guys want to think. Not sure why yall think Andyhb doesn't know his stuff...strange to see people going back and forth with him like he doesn't know what severe wx is and when it starts and ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Dude what are you talking about? No one ever said he didnt know his stuff. Damn my bad I obviously didnt know what I was talking about. I did exactly what he told me to do and I see I was wrong. I should have said Dixie Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 11:19 PM, metalicwx366 said: Dude what are you talking about? No one ever said he didnt know his stuff. Damn my bad I obviously didnt know what I was talking about. I did exactly what he told me to do and I see I was wrong. I should have said Dixie Alley. My second part of my post wasn't for you, that was for snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 On 4/22/2013 at 11:31 PM, Jon said: My second part of my post wasn't for you, that was for snowstorm.Lol I'm sorry. My bad. Forget everything I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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