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First wide spread severe weather outbreak prediction thread....


NCWX

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When do you think the first wide spread event for the south east will happen this spring?   Can be hunches... or models.   I am thinking and feeling between March 29-Apr1st will kick of the season with a bang.   

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Psshtt May 8-9 on April 1974 levels.

In April 1974, the U.S. was in the midst of a fairly strong La Nina, which probably helped to both amplify the jet and allow exceptionally warm, moist air to make it all the way up as far as SE Ontario. Actually, April 2011 was also on the tail end of a La Nina period. We are in a neutral/possibly very weak La Nina period right now.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Not that neutral seasons don't ever see extreme storms. The Superstorm of '93 happened during a neutral period.

I think as far as this year goes, early-mid April seems about right for the next big outbreak, at the earliest. Most of the country looks to continue this cooler-than-normal pattern for at least the next couple of weeks.

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You lose. I'm going with June with a tropical storm that produces lots of tornadoes. Severe weather season is about over for the deep south.

 

Please go back and research further before making claims like this, the Deep South can still easily see severe weather in May.

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Yes I know. I was just saying that it is about over.

 

Climatology says severe weather season peak in the south east is MID JUNE. The end of April usually is when the chance for TORNADOES decreases in states Like GA/TN/AL/MS...etc, but for the first part of may the tornado chance either increases or stays about the same for North Carolina. Also while the threat diminishes in the majority of the SE in June, the threat is still higher in NC. Also, July is a big severe month for Florida.

 

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southeast_tornado_averages_by_month.gif

 

 

The Deep South can easily see severe weather in January and February also but that doesn't make it severe weather season.

Yeah. But severe weather season does not end on May 1st, despite what you guys want to think. Not sure why yall think Andyhb doesn't know his stuff...strange to see people going back and forth with him like he doesn't know what severe wx is and when it starts and ends.

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Dude what are you talking about? No one ever said he didnt know his stuff. Damn my bad I obviously didnt know what I was talking about. I did exactly what he told me to do and I see I was wrong. I should have said Dixie Alley.

My second part of my post wasn't for you, that was for snowstorm.

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