2 major busts in the same storm.....did the first one cause the second?

[ORH_wxman]

Here was the March 6 12z Euro sfc temp output for early Friday...coinciding with the middle of the 12-18 hour period of the heaviest precip.

 

 

 

 

 

That's a pretty cold looking map...esp given the Euro tends to run a tad warm at the sfc in these events. It was by this point anyway I thought the amounts should have been pretty bullish at least for interior SE MA up to the ORH hills. It wasn't a rogue run of the Euro either, it had already been showing this for a few runs. Initially NWS BOX did do this...but then backed off for some reason. Though still much better when than what the TV newscasts were going.

 

I'm still wondering how much of these were weighted:

 

1.) The mid-atlantic bust just happening that day

2.) Putting significant weight into the GFS output (which was showing relatively paltry QPF)

3.) Simply not believing the Euro thermal profiles. NAM was a lot warmer at 850mb (but quite cold in the boundary layer)...but NAM was an outlier at 850. GFS was cold too like Euro, but just had paltry QPF.

[CoastalWx]

I remember looking at the image and saying holy crap, but also remembering the euro sometimes running too cold like the previous bust in late Feb and 12/29/12. But, when the 07/00 run came in, I felt better with the euro just being so dam consistent.

[ORH_wxman]

I remember looking at the image and saying holy crap, but also remembering the euro sometimes running too cold like the previous bust in late Feb and 12/29/12. But, when the 07/00 run came in, I felt better with the euro just being so dam consistent.

 

 

The biggest difference in the previous Euro temp busts was that it was on an island by itself. This time, it wasn't...the GFS soundings were really cold too, but the GFS just had pathetic QPF. Also the previous Euro bust in the interior was trying to show like 0C to -1C 925 temps and ended up a little too cold. This one was like -4C or -5C so there was definite wiggle room...for the interior at the least.

 

I don't think there was much that could be done about BOS until perhaps March 7th...but by the 6th, it was pretty doubtful that the interior would have only a nuisance snowfall...including interior SE MA.

[CoastalWx]

The biggest difference in the previous Euro temp busts was that it was on an island by itself. This time, it wasn't...the GFS soundings were really cold too, but the GFS just had pathetic QPF. Also the previous Euro bust in the interior was trying to show like 0C to -1C 925 temps and ended up a little too cold. This one was like -4C or -5C so there was definite wiggle room...for the interior at the least.

I don't think there was much that could be done about BOS until perhaps March 7th...but by the 6th, it was pretty doubtful that the interior would have only a nuisance snowfall...including interior SE MA.

Yeah I agree with interior se ma to ORH. The GFS was cold too at 950 which is a red flag for the coast that it could snow so long as the QPF was there. Then all eyes turn to that....QPF. I know the euro temps were partially a result of the QPF, but it came down to trusting how much exactly would fall. There really wasnt much that could be done until the 7th like you said. The h7 maps nailed the firehose potential too.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree with interior se ma to ORH. The GFS was cold too at 950 which is a red flag for the coast that it could snow so long as the QPF was there. Then all eyes turn to that....QPF. I know the euro temps were partially a result of the QPF, but it came down to trusting how much exactly would fall. There really wasnt much that could be done until the 7th like you said. The h7 maps nailed the firehose potential too.

 

 

I think this was important too. The 00z Mar 7th Euro run actually decreased QPF a bit (before the 12z run came back gangbusters)...I remember I was online that night as it was coming out and several people said how much worse it looked for BOS and back this way. I then looked at the H5/H7 setup on it, and couldn't figure out why it was lighter. It still showed an obscene firehose. So I chalked it up to the QPF crap we always see with guidance.

 

Sometimes its important to still look at the synoptics. I can't help but think before we had the Euro qpf available, we wouldn't sweat that little oscillation so much. This is where regaining a trust in the NAM/SREFs might have helped. I'm sure some were looking at the palty GFS qpf and worrying and then tossing SREF mean...convinced the Euro slight decrease in qpf was a sign of the rug getting pulled out....but the synoptics didn't support it.

 

The bottom line is it sucks when you have a setup that models cannot resolve easily. But I think at least when these things happen, it gets everyone thinking about the forecasting aspect again rather than ripping and reading.

[Amped]

Was definitely an odd setup that hasn't occured much, low was well southeast of the benchmark.  

[weathafella]

Was definitely an odd setup that hasn't occured much, low was well southeast of the benchmark.  

And all forecasts were for heavy qpf so we can't blame that. If anything, that should have biased forecasters cold but understandably the cold was barely enough.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

As much as I like NWS, they don't get a pass.  They were late going to watches and then dropped them to advisories in most areas that got 18+ as it was falling.  That's a bad bust for them, the worst I can recall in a positive direction.

This was probably the most widespread worst, positive bust I've seen up here, and the worst since 1/25 in a favorable scale.  There's been several that busted the other way the BWI ones several years ago coming to mind.

[ORH_wxman]

 

As much as I like NWS, they don't get a pass.  They were late going to watches and then dropped them to advisories in most areas that got 18+ as it was falling.  That's a bad bust for them, the worst I can recall in a positive direction.

This was probably the most widespread worst, positive bust I've seen up here, and the worst since 1/25 in a favorable scale.  There's been several that busted the other way the BWI ones several years ago coming to mind.

 

Yeah this is one of the most extreme ones I've seen in a while...to go from most outlets having a few inches of slop to widespread 18"+ actually on the ground less than 24 hours later was something I haven't seen since the 1990s.

12/26/10 was a bust, but not this close in...it was finally detected by guidance 36-48 hours out. 1/27/11 was as well...almost as close in as this one, but still not this magnitude for amounts. The bad part about this one unlike the previous examples was that our most skillful piece of guidance was waiving it in front of our faces. It would have been one thing if there was a mass NWP guidance failure...but there really wasn't.

[tamarack]

Farther back and not as widespread, but CAR's bust in April 1982 was the worst/best I can remember. The afternoon forecast on 4/6 called for cloudy/windy/20s, with the storm passing to the SE thanks to the anomalously cold HP. An evening update added flurries, 6-8 hr before the serious snow began. By early on 4/8 they had measured 26.4", at the time their largest snowfall on record and still #3.

[N. OF PIKE]

lets please not forget another reason for the bust and why mets had "cold feet" in BOS.  the week before storm where they were all over bullish and put maps out several days in advance.

[ORH_wxman]

lets please not forget another reason for the bust and why mets had "cold feet" in BOS.  the week before storm where they were all over bullish and put maps out several days in advance.

 

 

Yeah the Feb 24th inverted trough storm. A lot of amounts being thrown around 72 hours out.

[Wx4cast]

No matter what was and when it was forecast TV mets (and NWS) would have been grilled and skewered. Just saying

And it was not a matter of "cold feet" either. This was a rare and maybe once in a so many years storm where it did not fit KU, synoptic climatology, etc. 

[Wx4cast]

And all forecasts were for heavy qpf so we can't blame that. If anything, that should have biased forecasters cold but understandably the cold was barely enough.

Know that early and late season snows have the lowest %age of verification. You're damned if you go for it and damned if you don't. TBH considering statistical and synoptic climatology the forecasts were not really wrong or that far off in a relative sense.

[ORH_wxman]

Know that early and late season snows have the lowest %age of verification. You're damned if you go for it and damned if you don't. TBH considering statistical and synoptic climatology the forecasts were not really wrong or that far off in a relative sense.

 

 

I thought they were pretty bad...and I'm not usually very critical knowing how tough it is to forecast a lot of the storms around here.

 

I should specify that mostly within 36 hours of the event. It had a lot of uncertainty at 48 hours still. But there was almost no mentiuon of any potential for heavy snow in the interior despite several model solutions showing this. Even if they didn't want to go gangbusters, the potential really wasn't outlined much at all until Harvey Leonard got back on TV the afternoon of Mar 7th.

[CoastalWx]

lets please not forget another reason for the bust and why mets had "cold feet" in BOS. the week before storm where they were all over bullish and put maps out several days in advance.

They've been doing that all winter. I have no clue why this winter had caused that.