Analogs

[JBG]

So then a -NAO does lead to a hotter summer while a +NAO could lead to a cooler one or at least an average summer. It looks like a +NAO will stick around for a while. The strong blocking high pressure in eastern Canada is concerning if it sticks around for the hurricane season as it could block recurving storms. 

What about 2002? Wasn't that a relatively +NAO summer?

[TWCCraig]

From latest guidance, it looks like it's going to be average to below average.  The blocking and teleconnections are in favor of one.

[Cfa]

[JSantanaNYC]

Every day I have notice the highs have not verified. Today for example suppose to be high of 74 and im still 61.

[NEXtreme]

They've done a horrendous job with these outlooks since March.

[snywx]

Todays forecast was blown big time... Didn't get above 59 today smh

[BxEngine]

Todays forecast was blown big time... Didn't get above 59 today smh

I hit 70 at like 10:30 am but spent the rest of the day hovering around 60 with rain and drizzle.

[snywx]

I hit 70 at like 10:30 am but spent the rest of the day hovering around 60 with rain and drizzle.

 

My bad.. We actually hit 60 around 1pm then dropped back into the mid/upper 50's with lgt rain..

[BxEngine]

My bad.. We actually hit 60 around 1pm then dropped back into the mid/upper 50's with lgt rain..

I didnt mean it like that, wasnt pulling an SNE and calling your temp out lol. Just a nasty afternoon.

[snywx]

I didnt mean it like that, wasnt pulling an SNE and calling your temp out lol. Just a nasty afternoon.

 

I know lol... I actually went back and looked and I actually hit 60 @ 1pm lol..

[SACRUS]

Thanks Bluewave.  I wonder if you pulled the data from 66, 88,,91,93,95 if they also would have the strong blocking in may signal.  Also curious if 2010 skewed anything one way the last 3 years (10-12)?

[bluewave]

Thanks Bluewave.  I wonder if you pulled the data from 66, 88,,91,93,95 if they also would have the strong blocking in may signal.  Also curious if 2010 skewed anything one way the last 3 years (10-12)?

 

The strongest blocking signal of those years was 88,93, and 95. 2010 had the strongest blocking of a recent years

but 2011, and 2012 featured blocking also.

 

[bluewave]

The closest matches to this June so far were 2001 and 1998. Both summers were cooler than the 

last three here with 1998 finishing -0.5 and 2001 +0.3 in NYC. So this summer looks like it has the

potential to finish below the +1.1 (JJA) NYC temperature departure of 2012. While the Junes were

different  both years, the strong July heat signals of 2010, 2011, and 2012 were lacking. 

We'll have to wait until July to know if the relationship to June blocking will work out this summer.

 

 

 

 

[JBG]

The closest matches to this June so far were 2001 and 1998. Both summers were cooler than the 

last three here with 1998 finishing -0.5 and 2001 +0.3 in NYC. So this summer looks like it has the

potential to finish below the +1.1 (JJA) NYC temperature departure of 2012. While the Junes were

different  both years, the strong July heat signals of 2010, 2011, and 2012 were lacking. 

We'll have to wait until July to know if the relationship to June blocking will work out this summer.

1998 was chilly.  2001 had its moments, especially in August.  May was not a good match for either summer.

[Isotherm]

Looking at the temp departure patterns for the two summers Chris noted, I think 2001 has a better shot at being closer to reality for a number of reasons.

 

1) 2001 featured a persistent neutral ENSO pattern, while 1998 was a pre mod/strong La Nina summer.

 

2) The drought regime right now favors the core of the heat ridge in the Western Plains/Rockies, much like 2001, and not like 1998 with the heat ridge from TX-Southeast US. The developing pattern seems to suggest that the persistent heat will remain in the Plains/West with occasional hot shots into the Northeast. A trough "weakness" may be common in the Lakes and Northeast this summer.

 

For the sake of all of us, let's hope 2001 is not a great analog that carries through the summer, fall, and then next winter. Thankfully, most analogs are not useful beyond a particular season.

[uncle W]

May will end up averaging close to May 1960, 1988 and 2009...the three were weak negative's for MAM period...This coming warm up after the cold is similar to 1956...1956 could be a good analog if July turns out cool...June was very hot mid month...One of my earliest summer weather memories was being outside when it was 99 degrees during a transit strike...july was very cool and August was closer to normal...2001 had record cool the first half and August had record heat...

[nzucker]

Looking at the temp departure patterns for the two summers Chris noted, I think 2001 has a better shot at being closer to reality for a number of reasons.

 

1) 2001 featured a persistent neutral ENSO pattern, while 1998 was a pre mod/strong La Nina summer.

 

2) The drought regime right now favors the core of the heat ridge in the Western Plains/Rockies, much like 2001, and not like 1998 with the heat ridge from TX-Southeast US. The developing pattern seems to suggest that the persistent heat will remain in the Plains/West with occasional hot shots into the Northeast. A trough "weakness" may be common in the Lakes and Northeast this summer.

 

For the sake of all of us, let's hope 2001 is not a great analog that carries through the summer, fall, and then next winter. Thankfully, most analogs are not useful beyond a particular season.

I don't know if it will last, but we are approaching a fairly robust La Niña despite a warmer subsurface:

[JBG]

What do you mean that May wasn't a good match? I just posted the 500 mb maps

which were the closest 2 years since the 90's. You are never going to get an exact

match, but both years featured less blocking over Greenland and the Arctic. There

was also a strong ridge present across SE Canada like this May so far.

Sorry, I mean in terms of sensible weather.  May 2001 had a near-heat wave, i.e. two days over 90.  We didn't get close.  May 1998 had if I remember about seven days of straight rain.  I don't recognize this past month's sensible weather as being close to either events.  I was reading on my smartphone so didn't see the maps.  500 mb maps can be very close; and not impact on what we experience in the real world.

[nzucker]

Sorry, I mean in terms of sensible weather.  May 2001 had a near-heat wave, i.e. two days over 90.  We didn't get close.  May 1998 had if I remember about seven days of straight rain.  I don't recognize this past month's sensible weather as being close to either events.  I was reading on my smartphone so didn't see the maps.  500 mb maps can be very close; and not impact on what we experience in the real world.

This was a very rainy May as well, just like 1998...Central Park has had over 7" of rainfall. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Looking at the temp departure patterns for the two summers Chris noted, I think 2001 has a better shot at being closer to reality for a number of reasons.

 

1) 2001 featured a persistent neutral ENSO pattern, while 1998 was a pre mod/strong La Nina summer.

 

2) The drought regime right now favors the core of the heat ridge in the Western Plains/Rockies, much like 2001, and not like 1998 with the heat ridge from TX-Southeast US. The developing pattern seems to suggest that the persistent heat will remain in the Plains/West with occasional hot shots into the Northeast. A trough "weakness" may be common in the Lakes and Northeast this summer.

 

For the sake of all of us, let's hope 2001 is not a great analog that carries through the summer, fall, and then next winter. Thankfully, most analogs are not useful beyond a particular season.

 

I know man. I'll feel heartbroken if it continues to copy throughout the year. Every time I think of the horrors that ensued that winter. Too painful to think about. >_<

[nzucker]

I know man. I'll feel heartbroken if it continues to copy throughout the year. Every time I think of the horrors that ensued that winter. Too painful to think about. >_<

2011-12 wasn't much better, to be honest. 

[SACRUS]

This was a very rainy May as well, just like 1998...Central Park has had over 7" of rainfall. 

 

I posted in the other thread NYC and northern sections seem to be much wetter than other areas this month.  1998 was very wet area-wide. 

 

Here's a breakdown of May 1998 for the rest of the region

 

 

EWR: +2.2 (6.52)

LGA: +2.3 (6.02)

JFK: +1.0 (5.61)

TTN: +2.2 (7.29)

[SACRUS]

id be cruous to see how 2006 compared against this year.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2011-12 wasn't much better, to be honest. 

 

True.

[SACRUS]

Thanks Bluewave great discussion and illustration of the prior (potential) analogs.

[bluewave]

Thanks Bluewave great discussion and illustration of the prior (potential) analogs.

 

Sure. We'll probably have to wait until July to know if the May blocking relationship holds for this summer.

[SACRUS]

Sure. 2006 was one of those summers that you would have expected more 90 degrees days at Central Park for the +0.7 departure.

I think that some of the 90 degree stats that you or Uncle posted really showed an even greater disparity with the other

local sites that we normally see that summer.

 

NYC 2006 90(+)

 

Jun : 1

Jul:  4 (5 days 88 or higher

Aug: 3

 

EWR 2006

 

May: 1

Jun: 5

Jul: 12

Aug: 9

[SnoSki14]

I could see this being a more wetter, more humid summer with less extreme heat and a lot of storms. The gfs is showing a lot of activity in the tropics already in its longer range, which I haven't seen it show in a while, so that could add to the storminess. 

[uncle W]

The heavy rain potential with Andrea on top of  1.72" already at Central Park may also

be signaling a cooler summer than the last three. All Junes that had a rainfall totals of

5 inches or more had summers cooler than 2010-2012. There tended to be a mean

trough position in the East those years.

 

June rainfall

 

2009..10.06"

2007...6.55"...TS Barry remnants

2006...8.55"

2003..10.27"

2001...5.29"...TS Allison remnants

1998...5.94"

1996...5.96"

 

500.png

years with a wet May/June combo...We could see a top five wettest May/June combo...

NYC has over 9" of rain for May and June so far...The record rainfall for May and June combined is 19.03" set in 1989...We probably won't see that but we could see a top five wettest May/June combo on record...

year...May/June rains

1989.....19.03"

1972.....17.69"

1984.....15.50"

2009.....15.23"

2003.....13.70"

1968.....13.21"

2006.....13.17"

1948.....13.10"

1998.....12.88"

[bluewave]

years with a wet May/June combo...We could see a top five wettest May/June combo...

NYC has over 9" of rain for May and June so far...The record rainfall for May and June combined is 19.03" set in 1989...We probably won't see that but we could see a top five wettest May/June combo on record...

year...May/June rains

1989.....19.03"

1972.....17.69"

1984.....15.50"

2009.....15.23"

2003.....13.70"

1968.....13.21"

2006.....13.17"

1948.....13.10"

1998.....12.88"

 

It's really impressive for Central Park to already have 6.49" for June by the 8th of the month. May 8th to June 8th

picked up 14.49".