bluewave Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 interesting. we'll see if this blocking we have now can last into May and bring us a nice hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I hope to be in Florida for the Summer so it won't matter to me...I was thinking about this the other day... this was the 21st time the AO went -3.000 or lower for a day or more in March since 1950...those Summers are a mix of everything you can get... these are the years with the lowest March AO average... 1962...hot start but very cool ending... 1958...coolish... 1984...hot start but coolish... 1970...late start but hot in Sept... 1957...Hot... 1951...Coolish... 1952...Hot... 1987...Hot start... 2001...Cool start but hot second half... 1981...hot July only... 1960...coolish... 2006...near average... 1969...coolish... 1955...hot... 1999...hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 interesting. we'll see if this blocking we have now can last into May and bring us a nice hot summer No hot summer for me. I went through SO MANY of them since 1995. It's just the very high humidity levels that accompanies the heat that I greatly dislike. That's how most have always been since 1991. Anyway, great research bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Great discussion as always Bluewave. One I and some others really enjoy and are looking fwd. 4 in a row (hot summers)?? It'll be interesting to see how things progress but the odds are against it this year. But you never know with the extremes we have been having of late. Aside from 92, 90 - 95 featured 5 of 6 hot summers and I believe 51 - 57 had mainly warm to hotter summers. The ENSO/MEI analogs were leaning warm but are more of a mix now 1954, 2002, 1960,.... I rode the 94/95 analog this winter other leaned more on 96/97 - so far march is in its own league compared to those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 a -nao tends to dry out the plains so that could also be a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 I hope to be in Florida for the Summer so it won't matter to me...I was thinking about this the other day... this was the 21st time the AO went -3.000 or lower for a day or more in March since 1950...those Summers are a mix of everything you can get... these are the years with the lowest March AO average... 1962...hot start but very cool ending... 1958...coolish... 1984...hot start but coolish... 1970...late start but hot in Sept... 1957...Hot... 1951...Coolish... 1952...Hot... 1987...Hot start... 2001...Cool start but hot second half... 1981...hot July only... 1960...coolish... 2006...near average... 1969...coolish... 1955...hot... 1999...hot... I mis read the original post...11 of the years with a very negative AO in March had a May with a plus AO...the rest had a lesser negative... May AO after a low March... 1970.....0.531 1962.....0.068 1981.....0.180 2001.....0.452 1958....-0.336 1999.....0.226 2006.....0.156 1952....-0.774 1957....-0.996 1955.....0.242 1984.....0.479 1969....-0.720 1991.....0.486 1996....-0.226 1965....-0.153 1978.....0.059 1960....-0.857 1987.....0.325 1980....-1.155 1979....-0.250 my point here is blocking now doesn't mean blocking in May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Nice research as usual bluewave. This coincides with the temp departure inverse correlation for the Northeast, that is, cooler than normal May's tend to precede hot summers in our area, and vice versa. Generally the tendency is warm April --> warm summer, cool May --> warm summer, cool April --> cool summer. April tends to be positively correlated and May negatively correlated w/ summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Nice research as usual bluewave. This coincides with the temp departure inverse correlation for the Northeast, that is, cooler than normal May's tend to precede hot summers in our area, and vice versa. Generally the tendency is warm April --> warm summer, cool May --> warm summer, cool April --> cool summer. April tends to be positively correlated and May negatively correlated w/ summer temps. What do you think this April looks like in terms of temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Nice research as usual bluewave. This coincides with the temp departure inverse correlation for the Northeast, that is, cooler than normal May's tend to precede hot summers in our area, and vice versa. Generally the tendency is warm April --> warm summer, cool May --> warm summer, cool April --> cool summer. April tends to be positively correlated and May negatively correlated w/ summer temps. the past three mays violate that for ewr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Great stuff as usual Chris. Another important factor to keep in mind is ENSO/MEI trends. Many of those cool to very cool summers were Nino's ongoing or Nino's coming on. There is some divergence re fcst models on ENSO the next several months, so that will be interesting as well. If we take the JAMSTEC's route and head more cold-neutral/weak Nina, a warmer CONUS summer should result, as evidenced by the JAMSTEC's current JJA temp anomaly outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Great stuff as usual Chris. Another important factor to keep in mind is ENSO/MEI trends. Many of those cool to very cool summers were Nino's ongoing or Nino's coming on. There is some divergence re fcst models on ENSO the next several months, so that will be interesting as well. If we take the JAMSTEC's route and head more cold-neutral/weak Nina, a warmer CONUS summer should result, as evidenced by the JAMSTEC's current JJA temp anomaly outlook. Thanks, Tom. It will be interesting to see what the clues start to look like as we head through May. I put together the JJA summer temperature departures for NYC going back to the early 1990's. 2012...+1.1 2011...+1.7 2010...+3.6 2009...-2.3 2008...+1.1 2007...-1.3 2006..+0.7 2005...+2.8 2004...-0.9 2003...-0.6 2002...+1.5 2001...+0.3 2000...-2.6 1999...+2.1 1998...-0.5 1997...-1.3 1996...-1.6 1995...+1.9 1994....+1.6 1993....+2.3 1992.....-2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 May looks to atleast start off with a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 the tail end of the gfes and euro ensemble mean resemble the may patterns from the warmer summers you listed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 the last three Summers produced at least one 100 degree day...will 2013 be the fourth?...from 1952 to 1955 NYC had at least one day 100 or higher...last year had 19 days 90 or higher and one of those was 100... Most & Least 90+ days.(annual)39 in 1993.....1 in 190239 in 1991.....2 in 200437 in 1944.....2 in 188937 in 2010.....2 in 188736 in 1983.....2 in 187735 in 1966.....3 in 199632 in 2002.....4 in 187132 in 1988.....4 in 187532 in 1980.....5 in 196032 in 1953.....6 in 200029 in 1995.....6 in 195829 in 1961.....6 in 195029 in 1949.....6 in 191729 in 1941.....6 in 1903....................6 in 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I ripped this picture from a pdf file containing a climate study on the effects of climate change in the northeast. Under a high emission scenario, about 71 90F+ days a year with about 24 days of 100F+ every year. Don't think it will get that hot though it's quite scary. Not to start a debate on anything, these predictions just startle me even though they may not come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I'd give more credence to a NOGAPS rain / snow line at 6000 hours than the picture painted by that model; but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 I'd give more credence to a NOGAPS rain / snow line at 6000 hours than the picture painted by that model; but that's just me. I know. It's overdone. 20+ 100F days. That's just insane. Highly doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 the euro ensemble mean continues to have a ridge north of hawaii and a strong blocking pattern through the end of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Great stuff as usual Chris. Another important factor to keep in mind is ENSO/MEI trends. Many of those cool to very cool summers were Nino's ongoing or Nino's coming on. There is some divergence re fcst models on ENSO the next several months, so that will be interesting as well. If we take the JAMSTEC's route and head more cold-neutral/weak Nina, a warmer CONUS summer should result, as evidenced by the JAMSTEC's current JJA temp anomaly outlook. 1987 was an exception to this "Nino rule." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The one thing that we can say is that this May is starting out with less blocking near Greenland during the first ten days of the month than over the last three years. if this pattern continues throughout the month, than this could be a signal of a cooler summer than the the last three years. We'll see how the rest of the month goes beyond the start to get a better idea. The medium range model guidance is pretty persistent with the idea that the below normal height anomalies will continue over the higher latitudes through Days 8-10 which will bring us to the middle of May. We would then need a pretty big turnaround to reverse the averages for the month and get back to the average height anomalies that correspond to a positive temperature departure at NYC in the summer. I think the signs of a warmer summer are fading as we move forward, but we still have a few weeks to go before we can say anything definitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The medium range model guidance is pretty persistent with the idea that the below normal height anomalies will continue over the higher latitudes through Days 8-10 which will bring us to the middle of May. We would then need a pretty big turnaround to reverse the averages for the month and get back to the average height anomalies that correspond to a positive temperature departure at NYC in the summer. I think the signs of a warmer summer are fading as we move forward, but we still have a few weeks to go before we can say anything definitive. So then a -NAO does lead to a hotter summer while a +NAO could lead to a cooler one or at least an average summer. It looks like a +NAO will stick around for a while. The strong blocking high pressure in eastern Canada is concerning if it sticks around for the hurricane season as it could block recurving storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 The medium range model guidance is pretty persistent with the idea that the below normal height anomalies will continue over the higher latitudes through Days 8-10 which will bring us to the middle of May. We would then need a pretty big turnaround to reverse the averages for the month and get back to the average height anomalies that correspond to a positive temperature departure at NYC in the summer. I think the signs of a warmer summer are fading as we move forward, but we still have a few weeks to go before we can say anything definitive. Yeah. Although this summer could be one of those "either/or" situations where it could be either Slightly Above or Below Average in temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 The medium range model guidance is pretty persistent with the idea that the below normal height anomalies will continue over the higher latitudes through Days 8-10 which will bring us to the middle of May. We would then need a pretty big turnaround to reverse the averages for the month and get back to the average height anomalies that correspond to a positive temperature departure at NYC in the summer. I think the signs of a warmer summer are fading as we move forward, but we still have a few weeks to go before we can say anything definitive. Yeah, a continuation of this early month pattern would probably mean that this coming summer would be below the warmth of the last three summers. We will have to see how the second half of the month works out to get a better idea. In any event, a JJA departure below the +1.1 to +3.6 NYC range of 2010-2012 would represent a cooler summer here relative to the last three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Even if we do end up with a +NAO/AO for May, which at this point I'm fairly convinced of, I'm far from pulling the trigger on a cooler than normal summer yet. Right now, my initial estimate would still feature a slightly warmer than normal summer for JJA, but around 0 to +1.0. Don't have time to do a write up, but this is the analog package I came up w/ for May after research. Given the expected hemispheric and global indicators going forward as well as ENSO state / progression, I think it's fairly likely we're looking at a warmer than normal May in the MW and Northeast. Coolish in the South. Precip will be drier than normal this month IMO. Both precip and temp could reverse to the opposite state (wet/cool) for JJA, but that is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 May precip outlook based upon my analogs: May temp outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 i'm leaning slightly above normal this summer with lots of fronts/storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 i'm leaning slightly above normal this summer with lots of fronts/storms I agree but wuoldnt doubt warmth exceeds expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 i'm leaning slightly above normal this summer with lots of fronts/storms I agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Looks like we're already above average for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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