Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Who cares what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Who cares what it shows. Still 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 4-6" for Ginx?Lol, yep and 0 for Buff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Maybe even 8-12" for Ginx, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Who cares what it shows. the gfs is light years ahead of the NAM at 48-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Maybe even 8-12" for Ginx, seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 seriously? LOL, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 woosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The GFS looks a lot like the GGEM. RGEM/GGEM have been among the most consistent this winter. Hard to argue with any model that agrees with them but we should probably wait for the 12z. There's still a couple of things that could go right to make this come together for the southern areas. With the complex nature of what's going on to our NE, it would really only take one feature spinning further west lowering heights in the lakes/more ridging on the M/Atl coast to make a difference (models are going away from that though each run. still there's a weak s/w at 36-48 coming down west of the UP, and there's obviously a s/w north of NH in the critical stages that the GFS and others just think is a weak POS...need that to end up stronger and west). But, GGEM/GFS being so close now, not good. Would take a weather miracle I think. Straw grasping time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LOL, no. then what the **** are people talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 then what the **** are people talking about? I'm just joking with Ginxy-poo. He seems very optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Maybe even 8-12" for Ginx,If the NAM is right, you might be right. FYI .38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Let's wait and see. That was a big change but it was supported by the earlier 0z GGEM and the 12z RGEM. Miracle time, and in the meantime. We could well see the changes but at some point our good fortune of near perfect timing has to run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Even my Chicago flizzard gets skunked on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 If the NAM is right, you might be right. FYI .38 4-6" in a marginal airmass with garbage rates? Come on you're better than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 RGEM is way north WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Who cares what it shows. If it showed 5-10 in your backyard, you'd be humping it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 FWIW, the GFS signal is there for some potential OES too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Unc gets the good stuff to just south of NYC......nj ftw down to DC, Nice snows on the uncle for south of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 RGEM is way north WOW Lol...it doesn't get a flake into any part of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 this would be the perfect winter to go out with a nyc nj crush job just like it began while those of us to the north smoke cirrus and perhaps a few flurries omg i am so bitter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lol...it doesn't get a flake into any part of New England.Lol it only goes out to 48, but it is a little North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 lol! Meltdown much? no snow to meltdown produces a meltdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Steve I was in your neck of the woods last Sunday - Shooting arrows at the archary course at the fish and game club off of Snake Meadow Road. Forgot the name of the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 no snow to meltdown produces a meltdown? Not a snowy winter out that way I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not a snowy winter out that way I take it? Nope. Less than BDR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z. Well... yeah it was, actually. It may not have been there on the chart, but the plaguing, crushing suppressive influence of the vortex over all has been there the whole time, so what did anyone expect. 12z NAM looks like it's begun the inevitable trend of going back S. What's "infuriating" about this pattern ...for me anyway, is that I really want the seasons to flip and put this thing to bed, so I can launch my other warm season hobbies. Can't do schit in this pattern! It's handcuffing everything. If you are a winter storm enthusiast, your screwed... If you are like me, same thing... We just get stuck in an unrelenting, uneventful, ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Steve I was in your neck of the woods last Sunday - Shooting arrows at the archary course at the fish and game club off of Snake Meadow Road. Forgot the name of the place. Snake Meadow Gun club, lookin across up the hills is my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lol it only goes out to 48, but it is a little North. You have a small chance. The rest of us not so much. It's even on the verge of whiffing ORD. The block has been good to us but here is the drk side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Agree about the change. That's pretty big from 06z run to this run, but not sure it means much yet. I'm only out to 36 hours from where I sit, but what immediately leaped out at me on this run vs the 00z's 12-hour fix, is theta on the negative component of the trough on this initializaiton is some 5 degrees more N-S, having rotated positively vs the 00z. What that means in lay terms is the trough is initialized as digging more as we type, more so than the 00z run thought it would be by 12z this morning. It's not really obvious ... you have load up each frame and toggle back and forth to see the subtle variance, but it's real and there, and the impact is that by 36 hours, the main VM is a bit ... substantial actually, SW of the early model run fixes for those same time intervals. How this effects the position/intensity up along the MA is uncertain but probably already on the charts if I just stop typing and go look - haha. Edit: Funny ... it actually seems to hurt SNE's chances for another event to have had it be more potent and digging earlier - how the GFS pulls that off is a mystery, but it probably has something to do with the same old same old in not being able to get rid of the immovable, overbearing -NAO. We just keep getting beaten over the head, ...every cycle that the storm hopeful cracks open, thinking "this will be the run", only to walk away with watering eyes ... that -NAO is actually bad in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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