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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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The GFS looks a lot like the GGEM.  RGEM/GGEM have been among the most consistent this winter.  Hard to argue with any model that agrees with them but we should probably wait for the 12z.

 

There's still a couple of things that could go right to make this come together for the southern areas.  With the complex nature of what's going on to our NE, it would really only take one feature spinning further west lowering heights in the lakes/more ridging on the M/Atl coast to make a difference (models are going away from that though each run.  still there's a weak s/w at 36-48 coming down west of the UP, and there's obviously a s/w north of NH in the critical stages that the GFS and others just think is a weak POS...need that to end up stronger and west).   But, GGEM/GFS being so close now, not good.  Would take a weather miracle I think.

 

Straw grasping time.

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Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z.

 

Well... yeah it was, actually.   It may not have been there on the chart, but the plaguing, crushing suppressive influence of the vortex over all has been there the whole time, so what did anyone expect.   

 

12z NAM looks like it's begun the inevitable trend of going back S.   

 

What's "infuriating" about this pattern ...for me anyway, is that I really want the seasons to flip and put this thing to bed, so I can launch my other warm season hobbies.  Can't do schit in this pattern! It's handcuffing everything.  If you are a winter storm enthusiast, your screwed... If you are like me, same thing...  We just get stuck in an unrelenting, uneventful, ennui.    

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Agree about the change. That's pretty big from 06z run to this run, but not sure it means much yet.

 

I'm only out to 36 hours from where I sit, but what immediately leaped out at me on this run vs the 00z's 12-hour fix, is theta on the negative component of the trough on this initializaiton is some 5 degrees more N-S, having rotated positively vs the 00z.   What that means in lay terms is the trough is initialized as digging more as we type, more so than the 00z run thought it would be by 12z this morning.   It's not really obvious ... you have load up each frame and toggle back and forth to see the subtle variance, but it's real and there, and the impact is that by 36 hours, the main VM is a bit ... substantial actually, SW of the early model run fixes for those same time intervals.   How this effects the position/intensity up along the MA is uncertain but probably already on the charts if I just stop typing and go look - haha.  

 

Edit:  Funny ... it actually seems to hurt SNE's chances for another event to have had it be more potent and digging earlier - how the GFS pulls that off is a mystery, but it probably has something to do with the same old same old in not being able to get rid of the immovable, overbearing -NAO.   

 

We just keep getting beaten over the head, ...every cycle that the storm hopeful cracks open, thinking "this will be the run", only to walk away with watering eyes  ...  that -NAO is actually bad in some cases.   

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