Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Navgem is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Wow gfs looks great here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 93 degree days in Maine are not the norm. Although bikini skiing should be an Olympic sportThe snow cover to the Cape is not a norm. Hard to believe how much it looks like Mid January and skis like it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The snow cover to the Cape is not a norm. Hard to believe how much it looks like Mid January and skis like it too. Year without a summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 First call. 5-10 sw ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I could easily see how it could come north, but that dam Vort lobe is screwing things up. How is the rreaha today? Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 First call. 5-10 sw ct JB agrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Year without a summer?probably year without a spring the flip to summer will be violent. Full sun and snowing late March? Incredible air mass. The snow looking as white and pristine as the day it fell in late March all the way home just amazed me. West Bethel Maine on RT 2 is a super weenie snow spot, drifts over the first floor in some houses . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 upton's first call at it--1-2 for most spots... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Might have missed this but all climo sites below normal and forecast is rest of month stays well below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 This whole thing is meh I think. Probably some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How is the rreaha today? Better? Yeah much better, but I think the little one may have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Might have missed this but all climo sites below normal and forecast is rest of month stays well below. Brush fire season cancelled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 SREFS plumes are consistent with 6-8 across all of CT RI EMA, south of pike special. Right now spring birds singing, full sun and snowing, how sweet is that. Looks like the meh will be contained north of the Pike. Congrats LL and GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Brush fire season cancelled! 4 days ago Phil was worried about drought and fire. Today he is buried in snowwithmore incoming. Miss him here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Brush fire season cancelled! Remember all the red flag warnings last March and April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Someone mentioned a positive feedback process... Not sure what that may be, but that is consistent with models gravitating towards a more extreme solution as we get closer to some events. All or None, with NAM closer to All, and Euro closer to None but slight ticks could make it go All. I know... go with the seasonal clear winner Euro, toss the consistently abysmal NAM. It's late in the game, but still leaving room for a sudden swing on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Regardless of the placement of the surface and midlevel low centers, there is a strong deformation band signal on the northern flank of this storm as the H7 southerly flow from the new midlevel low center runs into the N and NE flow over ME and NNE, which is a result of the old low near St. Johns, Newfoundland. Consequently, I could see this being one of those deals where you go from cloudy to 1-2" +SN over a short N-S distance. Right now the NAM is an outlier, but it's just another piece of guidance to consider. I would tend to ride more of a Euro or GFS solution for now. The best chances for accumulating snow lie along the south coast of CT (north of the Merritt crusher?) down into LI, and into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Any little bit of elevation will help...yes, even that 400' glacial moraine on LI. Any elevated areas of SE PA and interior NJ look good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I get nothing out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 09z srefs are impressive...even more so than the previous run...but it's way out there and they haven't been all that good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 09z srefs are impressive...even more so than the previous run...but it's way out there and they haven't been all that good anyway. Yeah and 3z was a bump up from 21z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah and 3z was a bump up from 21z lol I tend to see the SREFs as more following the previous NAM than a prediction of what the future model runs will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 SREFS are sniffing pretty good snows for much of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs moved south with the 0.25 and 0.5" line but expanded 1" line near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I tend to see the SREFs as more following the previous NAM than a prediction of what the future model runs will do. Yeah in general I agree. The GFS ensembles weren't very impressive at 6z so I'm not overly excited about this. Given the complex synoptic interaction and downstream block I think you really have to go with the globals. The non-hydrostatic models like the RPM and NAM seem to be going too convection happy off the Mid Atlantic. The NAM even deepens the thing as a pseudo-warm core low and likely forces the thing way too far north and west. The flatter trek east seems much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 SREFS are sniffing pretty good snows for much of SNE. Srefs moved south with the 0.25 and 0.5" line but expanded 1" line near NYC. So, south is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs moved south with the 0.25 and 0.5" line but expanded 1" line near NYC.honing in on a south of Pike special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs moved south with the 0.25 and 0.5" line but expanded 1" line near NYC. It is, afterall, a SW CT winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs are terrible. Nam is terrible. Both are unusable as this range probably 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 So, south is good?pretty dynamic on the north side near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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