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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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Year without a summer?

probably year without a spring the flip to summer will be violent. Full sun and snowing late March? Incredible air mass. The snow looking as white and pristine as the day it fell in late March all the way home just amazed me. West Bethel Maine on RT 2 is a super weenie snow spot, drifts over the first floor in some houses .
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Someone mentioned a positive feedback process... Not sure what that may be, but that is consistent with models gravitating towards a more extreme solution as we get closer to some events. All or None, with NAM closer to All, and Euro closer to None but slight ticks could make it go All.

I know... go with the seasonal clear winner Euro, toss the consistently abysmal NAM. It's late in the game, but still leaving room for a sudden swing on the 12z Euro.

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Regardless of the placement of the surface and midlevel low centers, there is a strong deformation band signal on the northern flank of this storm as the H7 southerly flow from the new midlevel low center runs into the N and NE flow over ME and NNE, which is a result of the old low near St. Johns, Newfoundland.

 

Consequently, I could see this being one of those deals where you go from cloudy to 1-2" +SN over a short N-S distance. Right now the NAM is an outlier, but it's just another piece of guidance to consider. I would tend to ride more of a Euro or GFS solution for now. The best chances for accumulating snow lie along the south coast of CT (north of the Merritt crusher?) down into LI, and into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Any little bit of elevation will help...yes, even that 400' glacial moraine on LI. Any elevated areas of SE PA and interior NJ look good as well.

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I tend to see the SREFs as more following the previous NAM than a prediction of what the future model runs will do.

 

Yeah in general I agree.

 

The GFS ensembles weren't very impressive at 6z so I'm not overly excited about this. Given the complex synoptic interaction and downstream block I think you really have to go with the globals. The non-hydrostatic models like the RPM and NAM seem to be going too convection happy off the Mid Atlantic. The NAM even deepens the thing as a pseudo-warm core low and likely forces the thing way too far north and west. The flatter trek east seems much more likely. 

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