butterfish55 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Spring Fling across the country? I thought they were televising a Tolland Vs. West Chesterfield high school game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 I thought they were televising a Tolland Vs. West Chesterfield high school gameJudging by the pics I saw today Tolland gets swamped by West Chesterfield depth and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Weak thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Good old NAM...always fun to look at though. 12z = complete miss... 00z = complete crush... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Weak thread. Waiting for the Euro... 00z GFS looked pretty close to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Waiting for the Euro... 00z GFS looked pretty close to 18z. Was just playing around. 0z GEFS lifts the .5 line further north to our west. Smidge here too, I mean smidge. That's been one of the hallmarks this year of a later north shift but it can only go so far? Maybe the .5 line gets onto the south coast in the 6z or 12z. Lots of work to do, not much time. Lost the weakness further west vs the 18z. Euro tells the tale. GGEM being south to me is a big blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Was just playing around. 0z GEFS lifts the .5 line further north to our west. Smidge here too, I mean smidge. That's been one of the hallmarks this year of a later north shift but it can only go so far? Maybe the .5 line gets onto the south coast in the 6z or 12z. Lots of work to do, not much time. Lost the weakness further west vs the 18z. Euro tells the tale. GGEM being south to me is a big blah. Yeah, I'm thinking this turns out to be a minor event, maybe a 1-3" type deal. We'll see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Major event NJ, tri-state, CT, RI SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z. Is that what it was? I thought it looked better but then D3 surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z. Think it's accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro looked so much better out west but a lobe of PV to our northeast appeared this run to screw us....pretty infuriating as it wasn't there at 12z. It's remarkable how its just a tick away from showing a NAM solution. The GFS is right there as well. It certainly is disconcerting that the NAM is the only amped up model at this point given its tendencies...but the global models are slowly ticking towards it and they continue to do so tonight. They won't quite cave yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's very precarious.. give this thing any breathing room from the PV and it will explode.. positive feedback loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Is that what it was? I thought it looked better but then D3 surprised me. Yes, the vortex in Nova Scotia had an ugly lobe well SW of the 12z run which rotated around and squashed the better looking ULL coming out of the Ohio Valley so the net result was no improvement in the storm impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yes, the vortex in Nova Scotia had an ugly lobe well SW of the 12z run which rotated around and squashed the better looking ULL coming out of the Ohio Valley so the net result was no improvement in the storm impact. So frustrating to be this close to a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 tickle tickle? Euro ens a tick closer in than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Blizz will be happyish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Blizz will be happyish He's locked in the NAM/SREF solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 28F. Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Umps lumpa dippidty doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Folks.. I cannot stress this enough get snow in your forecasts..and lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Donny baseball says no end in sight to deep winter. weeks and weeks Morning thoughts... In the midst of a record-setting blocking late-season blocking regime, the AO was -5.298 this morning, marking the 3rd consecutive day on which the AO was at or below -5.000. The AO reached bottom on March 20 with a reading of -5.632. The ensemble guidance is in strong agreement that the blocking will relax and the block will retrograde in coming days. However, consistent with some of the analog guidance that suggested the possibility of a short-duration blocking regime for April, a growing number of ensemble members are indicating early April blocking. A few members keep the AO negative through the forecast period. At this time, it appears that my thoughts for April (#731) may be on track. Specifically, the first half of April could see cold anomalies from the Plains States eastward. With the cold, there might be some additional opportunities for late-season snowfall. Cities such as Albany, Boston, Burlington, Chicago (still recovering from a historic snow drought), Cleveland, Concord, Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, Portland (ME), Toronto, and Worcester probably have the highest risk of seeing some accumulations of snow in April. Other cities to the south, including Allentown, Harrisburg, New York City, and Philadelphia have some possibility, as well. Furthermore, the objective analogs, teleconnection analogs behind my April thoughts, and some recent runs of the GFS hint that New York City might see its first April freeze since 2007. The last time the temperature dropped to 32° in NYC in April was April 9, 2007 when the mercury fell to 32°. During that cold spell, the temperature fell to or below freezing on April 6-9, with the lowest reading being 30° on April 8. Such an outcome is not assured, but the odds are probably around 1-in-3. More immediately, the guidance continues to indicate that a moderate to significant snowstorm will affect the Plains States this weekend. That's the system that will eventually spawn secondary development along the East Coast likely providing some portion of the Middle Atlantic region and possibly southern New England with at least some accumulating snow. Kansas City, which picked up 0.2" snow yesterday bringing its seasonal total to 25.4" (36th highest), appears to be in line for a 3"-6"/4"-8"-type snowfall late Saturday through much of Sunday. Some locally higher amounts might be possible. A seasonal figure at or above 30" still looks very realistic. A 4" snowfall would rank 2012-13 as the 20th biggest season. St. Louis, which has somewhat below normal snowfall to date at 15.1" appears to be in line for a 3"-6" accumulation. That would bring the city above normal for the winter. In terms of the March ideas, so far things are working out in many areas in terms of snowfall. The Middle Atlantic region and southern Ontario are notable exceptions so far and those exceptions vividly illustrate the limits to trying to forecast in the extended range. From Message #631 (2/19): FWIW, the current mix of analog cases suggests the potential for a snowy March in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and New England. The Ohio Valley, southern Ontario and southern Quebec would likely seek their most snowfall in March since 2011. March snowfall for select cities based on the analog cases (weighted for frequency of cases): Boston: 9.7" (snowiest since 2009) Cleveland: 10.8" (snowiest since 2011) Montreal: 26.0 cm/10.2" (snowiest since 2011) New York City: 7.2" (snowiest since 2009) Toronto: 21.7 cm/8.5" (snowiest since 2011) Washington, DC: 6.8" (snowiest since 1999); excluding 1960: 2.2" (snowiest since 2009) Monthly snowfall for those cities through March 21 is as follows: Boston: 20.6" Cleveland: 6.6" Montreal: 50.0 cm (19.7") New York City: 7.3" Toronto: 8.2 cm (3.2") Washington, DC: 0.2" From #700 (3/15): My opinion of prospects for at least some accumulation of snow for the 3/15-3/25 timeframe for select cities is as follows: Boston: Very Likely Burlington: Very Likely (at least one accumulation of 4” or 10 cm or more is possible) Chicago: Likely Cleveland: Likely Harrisburg: Likely Hartford: Very Likely Kansas City: Possible Montreal: Very Likely (at least one accumulation of 4” or 10 cm or more is possible) New York City: Possible Ottawa: Very Likely Philadelphia: Possible Toronto: Likely Washington, DC: Possible Worcester: Very likely (at least one accumulation of 4” or 10 cm or more is possible) Outcomes to Date (3/15-21): Boston: 7.5" Burlington: 10.2" (9.6" on 3/19-20) Chicago: 0.1" Cleveland: 3.5" Harrisburg: 2.3" Hartford: 5.3" Kansas City: 0.2" Montreal: 35.6 cm/14.0" (34.3 cm/13.5" on 3/19-20) New York City: 3.0" Ottawa: 26.3 cm/10.4" Philadelphia: Trace Toronto: 5.0 cm/2.0" Washington, DC: Trace Worcester: 7.9" (7.9" on 3/18-19) The single biggest takeaway is that analogs coupled with the dynamical guidance can provide insight, but there are limitations. Obviously, I'm unhappy about the disparity between my thoughts and outcomes to date in some areas. Philadelphia, Toronto, and Washington, DC have not done as well as I had expected so far. There's still time and much will likely depend on the 3/24-26 event for Philadelphia and Washington's monthly snowfall or lack thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 JMA and UKIE both came north..JMA big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 JMA and UKIE both came north..JMA big hit So you're basing your forecast on the JMA/NAM/SREF consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So you're basing your forecast on the JMA/NAM/SREF consensus? Winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Winning. Those are the first things I look at when I get to work!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So you're basing your forecast on the JMA/NAM/SREF consensus? Basing on meteorology ..When you look at things from a 30,000 foot view synoptically it makes sense for it to come north enough to give most of SNE snow. Those that had sunny and 46 forecasts for Monday look to be in a bit of trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 4-8 south of the river , tickle tickle tickle tickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Basing on meteorology ..When you you look at things from a 30,000 foot view synoptically it makes sense for it to come north enough to give most of SNE snow. Those that had sunny and 46 forecasts were Monday look to be in a bit of trouble Good thing most people didn't have that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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