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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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Unlike the March 6-8 storm....this one actually reminds me more of 2/10/10 in how the upper low just gets squashed from the north and there's dry air issues.

 

Definitely.   This one has a whole 'nother set of obstacles.  I like that the NAM continues to slow down even though it's "worse"  we will see.   This is nowhere near as certain as that blizzard was, IMO no better than 50/50 even on the coast right now.  Definitely will need to see a good jump north in the evening runs.  We're crossing the threshold.

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Euro is quite close to being good here, but its going to have a hard time breaking through I think. I do like that the 5h shortwave was stronger and we actually start getting flow out of the SE.

 

Just saw this.  It's close.  We'll probably need one of those breakaway vortmaxs like we had a few weeks ago to help lower heights up here (and work west) to help lift everything north.

Bottom line it's under 200 miles at 3-4 days.  No model has demonstrated even that type of accuracy at this range this year.  Doesn't mean it has to come north, could go south too.  But it's hard to deny the trend has been mainly north in this latest pattern.   The other issues you mentioned are relevant and probably provide a ceiling to how far north this can go.

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All the Boston mets seem interested by recent trends. They all covered their butts. Well done.

 

Eh, there's not much to say at this point.  Chance of some snow to the south is about all they need to say. 

 

What I really like...weakness now extending further west towards the lakes compared to 6 hours ago.  That's one of the keys to the evolution...need that to be real, maybe stronger/further west, will help matters.

 

This is a nice look at 18z, but is it real?  I think some will be shoveling again.

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Yeah--they're making it to the east side, Mitch.  If it's going to be 31* at 2:30p.m. in spring and there's 7" of compacted snow on the ground, might as well put some beautiful flakeage in the air to complete the scene.

 

 

Nice, glad you got to see some action. I had about 1.3" of snow today from persistent snow showers and squalls, but it didn't stick to anything save for the preexisting snowpack. Judging by the radar, there may be some more action through the night tonight. I'm not sure if any of it will make it over the crest as stability increases and Froude numbers decrease in response to the transition from day to night.

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I thought this smell'd like a ll special for a while. Perhaps pvd-pym can get in on act to but if I could pick a spot for this it would prob be shelton,ct or one of those towns less than ten miles from sw ct coast w some elevation, if ridging can improve and build upon the 12z euro trend then ri and se mass is game on

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Well I have to go to Baltimore tomorrow and have a flight back on Monday PM.  I absolutely have to be back in NH on Tuesday AM for something very important.  That stuff on the backside down in MD better be rain, Baltimore closes down for 4" of snow.  NAM is making me nervous, but its just the NAM, right??

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