ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Phasing a piece of the vortex into the main shortwave is what we would want if we aren't going to see it weaken and move northeast fast enough...that is how March 6-8 went from being suppressed by 300 miles to getting us in the game. The fujiwara shortwave from the west is what made it a MECS/HECS, but we would have never been in the game to begin with if we didn't get that partial phase from the Maine/Nova Scotia energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Phasing a piece of the vortex into the main shortwave is what we would want if we aren't going to see it weaken and move northeast fast enough...that is how March 6-8 went from being suppressed by 300 miles to getting us in the game. The fujiwara shortwave from the west is what made it a HECS, but we would have never been in the game to begin with if we didn't get that partial phase from the Maine/Nova Scotia energy. yeah... I mean the NAO is pretty stagnant...and the block is right in the wrong place. The AO is rising rapidly...but the NAO is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Went skiing at Jiminy Peak yesterday had an amazing time not many people at all and the skiing was great with light snow falling most of the day with some heavier burst just perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 While the AO rises the ridging out west and NW Canada looks pretty stout. Tropics for the time support that too. Eventually all breaks down as IO convection builds, but I don't the first week of April being a big switch aside from a mild day or two. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 While the AO rises the ridging out west and NW Canada looks pretty stout. Tropics for the time support that too. Eventually all breaks down as IO convection builds, but I don't the first week of April being a big switch aside from a mild day or two. JMHO. Not to get into a debate based upon semantics (boring), but what do you mean by "big switch" - I assume you are responding/referring to the statements I made awhile ago? If so, I was also clear about not being sure how abrupt that would be. I never said big switch, I said, flipping the season switch as in, an improvement on the cold toward warming and more solid and bona fide indication spring. I also danced around a the local time-scaled cold bubble we are in, and that it might be easy for some to forget that the current large scaled, longer term warmer climate paradigm still lurks just beyond the boundary of the index-protective cold bubble. Mark my words: we won't have to come ALL the way into warm index modes to see that bubble pop. We are merely in an anomaly that is strong enough - for the time being - to off set... We could still have a modestly negative NAO and see that happen - though we'd run risk of BDs in the means, but that's a different deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Not to get into a debate based upon semantics (boring), but what do you mean by "big switch" - I assume you are responding/referring to the statements I made awhile ago? If so, I was also clear about not being sure how abrupt that would be. I never said big switch, I said, flipping the season switch as in, an improvement on the cold toward warming and more solid and bona fide indication spring. I also danced around a the local time-scaled cold bubble we are in, and that it might be easy for some to forget that the current large scaled, longer term warmer climate paradigm still lurks just beyond the boundary of the index-protective cold bubble. Mark my words: we won't have to come ALL the way into warm index modes to see that bubble pop. We are merely in an anomaly that is strong enough - for the time being - to off set... We could still have a modestly negative NAO and see that happen - though we'd run risk of BDs in the means, but that's a different deal.. No worries...it wasn't directed at you or anything. And yes...mild days certainly could happen with NW winds and 534-540 thicknesses as you well know. I'll probably be wrong, but I could see a big change into Mid April or so. I think events support that, but for now...I believe the first week of April still wants to hold onto at least interior snow potentials. Ayer MA lookout!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 huge shift on the gfs threw 63 would not surprise me if the monday storm is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 not enough on the gfs...but certainly better than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS tries to phase that lobe of vorticity into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS tries to phase that lobe of vorticity into the trough. Where have we seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If you compared 00z to 06z to 12z (GFS) there's a pretty nice jog back towards the coast. There's still plenty of time, so I wouldn't write this one off by any means. (00z Canadian went bonkers too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We're starting to run out of time on this...I agree there's still time to see this bump far enough north for a larger scale impact, but it needs to happen in the next couple of runs. We aren't going to see an OTS solution on the Euro inside of 60-72 hours correct itself northward 200 miles. We'll want to see a sizable shift by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I want some of whatever the GGEM is smoking....gets the big snows all the way into central NH/VT and moderate snows right up to Powderfreak. Its actually more amped than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GGEM has been performing 2nd best behind Euro since the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GGEM has been performing 2nd best behind Euro since the upgrade Its an outlier right now though...and there's that pesky problem of the Euro being a better model and showing suppressed. There's still a bit of time, but we want to see the Euro start making a bump north. It likely won't do it all at once if it happens since the Euro tends to trend a bit more methodically, but we do need to see some more northerly solutions soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Canadian still is a joke for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Canadian still is a joke for me. Yeah I can't take that solution very seriously right now...but it actually is scoring a hair better than the GFS in the last 30 days for 120 hours out. Good for 2nd place behind Euro. Euro is still the arbitrator though when it comes to this storm unless we see a whole bunch of other guidance come north at 00z and the Euro only modestly comes north...then I might start siding with further north guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 GFS Ensm Mean is S. Still gets some light precip in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah I can't take that solution very seriously right now...but it actually is scoring a hair better than the GFS in the last 30 days for 120 hours out. Good for 2nd place behind Euro. Euro is still the arbitrator though when it comes to this storm unless we see a whole bunch of other guidance come north at 00z and the Euro only modestly comes north...then I might start siding with further north guidance. It just seems really bullish with QPF and trying to get really amped in the 5 day timeframe..at least here in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It just seems really bullish with QPF and trying to get really amped in the 5 day timeframe..at least here in the NE. I've def seen a lot of storms where its over amped 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow, Euro changed a lot...much slower and north with the system...still too far south for us, but it really brings qpf north out to our west like in Indiana and into PA. Hopefully that is the start of something for next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Cha Ching. Ring those cash registers, as soon as Ryan posted on FB and Twitter the next 7 days look nice we knew this was coming north . Solid trends today FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Cha Ching. Ring those cash registers, as soon as Ryan posted on FB and Twitter the next 7 days look nice we knew this was coming north . Solid trends today FTW Still has a lot of work to do...but it did def look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Still has a lot of work to do...but it did def look better. Trend is our friend? We knew it wouldn't show the ideal solution all of a sudden after one run. 00z tonight and 12z tomorrow will be critical. OT - but very little melting again today. 100% cover from Woburn to Tremont Street. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Still has a lot of work to do...but it did def look better. It's amazing how amped up and north the Canadian has consistently been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's amazing how amped up and north the Canadian has consistently been... Doesn't really inspire much confidence in this coming north though. I'm glad Euro looked better, but its still a whiff by a healthy margin. I do like that it slowed it down considerably though. That was more in line with the GGEM...having that slow moving ULL through the OH valley...but it still gets squashed before it gets to us. Gets Chicago back in the game though out to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Has Tip posted to GONAPS yet today? It's off the SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 It's off the SC coast. Yeah... suprisingly our network allowed me to look at a loop of the 12z run and it was flatlining... It has been pretty much out to lunch with this earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Wow, Euro changed a lot...much slower and north with the system...still too far south for us, but it really brings qpf north out to our west like in Indiana and into PA. Hopefully that is the start of something for next couple of runs. Keeps the hope alive for a further north trend. Gotta love when the euro isn't a total buzzkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Cha Ching. Ring those cash registers, as soon as Ryan posted on FB and Twitter the next 7 days look nice we knew this was coming north . Solid trends today FTW Hopefully each run will continue with the N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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