CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yep OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yep OTS. Ugly synoptic setup... thinking miss with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Are Euro ens still way north of Op like they have been the last 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Until the data gets onshore in the Pac NW..the outcome for this is far from set in stone.How many times have we seen this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Are Euro ens still way north of Op like they have been the last 4 days? Euro ens way south. I don't think this one is for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro ens way south. I don't think this one is for us. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 With next week looking not so good, is today the last event? I think not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Don't know if this was posted already. After a long parade of storms, Worcester has become the snowiest city this winter in the United States, the National Weather Service says. The town holds a commanding position atop the snowpile at 108.9 inches after receiving 4.2 inches Tuesday. Syracuse, N.Y., came in second, with 96.5 inches received this year. Rounding out the top 5 were: Erie, Pa., with 92.2 inches; Rochester, N.Y., 72.7 inches; and Salt Lake City, 67.1 inches, according to Patrick DeCoursey, who maintains the snowfall tracking site goldensnowglobe.com. The statistic applies to cities with more than 100,000 people http://www.boston.com/2013/03/20/worcester-nation-snowiest-city-this-year/T7NqcNuQNvnaIJGYsKR2AM/story.html?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 The slow demise to winter begins, although there is still the early April threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'd proably wait one more day for early next week, but as of now..kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Don't know if this was posted already. After a long parade of storms, Worcester has become the snowiest city this winter in the United States, the National Weather Service says. The town holds a commanding position atop the snowpile at 108.9 inches after receiving 4.2 inches Tuesday. Syracuse, N.Y., came in second, with 96.5 inches received this year. Rounding out the top 5 were: Erie, Pa., with 92.2 inches; Rochester, N.Y., 72.7 inches; and Salt Lake City, 67.1 inches, according to Patrick DeCoursey, who maintains the snowfall tracking site goldensnowglobe.com. The statistic applies to cities with more than 100,000 people http://www.boston.com/2013/03/20/worcester-nation-snowiest-city-this-year/T7NqcNuQNvnaIJGYsKR2AM/story.html?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed1 We need to produce today so boston can move ahead of Salt Lake City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 We need to produce today so boston can move ahead of Salt Lake City. Boston is certainly within reach of the Top 10. Currently, Grand Rapids with 63.6" is 10th. So far, New England is represented by Worcester (1st) and Bridgeport (8th) on the list. Hopefully, the inverted trough will be an overachiever later today into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Boston is certainly within reach of the Top 10. Currently, Grand Rapids with 63.6" is 10th. So far, New England is represented by Worcester (1st) and Bridgeport (8th) on the list. Hopefully, the inverted trough will be an overachiever later today into tomorrow. Thanks Don. I think Grand Rapids is below normal ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Yeah next week is slipping away now...I was feeling it would come north after the ensembles stayed north for so many runs and other global guidance, but it might be OP Euro FTW on this one for sniffing out the south idea, even if it was too far south verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Boston is certainly within reach of the Top 10. Currently, Grand Rapids with 63.6" is 10th. So far, New England is represented by Worcester (1st) and Bridgeport (8th) on the list. Hopefully, the inverted trough will be an overachiever later today into tomorrow. Now that's incredible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 How does April 3 event look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Until the data gets onshore in the Pac NW..the outcome for this is far from set in stone.How many times have we seen this? in 5 days HPC has never brought this north. Humping them, this is a miss. End this winter and melt this snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Recent gfs runs have been decidedly meh - limited qpf spread thru 16 days, lots of clouds but no joy, slowly warming temps. GYX 7-day forecast for MBY is right in line with that, zero mention of precip (not even a 20% pop) thru the period, with temps AOA normal by midweek. It's been a nice cold week and great snowstorm, but now it looks as if things end with a whimper, no dramatic warmup or rains, just slowly melting snow with mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Euro ensembles were way too warm last week. Probably are too warm in early April too...I noticed they built up a better ridge in Canada NW territory at 00z. While we may slowly try to get out of this deep winter feel (it will be early April after all) We aren't done IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 box forecast highs look chilly but nothing out of the ordinary..hoping one good storm will even the score and put all of sne well above normal...too many places just at or slightly above right now to be able to say this was an amazing winter region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 ugh...the block is just way too strong. Strongest late March block, ever, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 What a gosh-awful series of runs (exception, GGEM) since yesterday... not just for storm/cold/snow enthusiasm, but spring enthusiasm alike. Clean sweep across the board these synopsis being offered by the non-GGEM tools, right through D10, figured out how to supply ennui to everyone on both sides of the spectrum. In a month it'll all be over anyway. The problem here is there is too much "static" negative NAO at this point. I have hammered this point in the past, usually ...ignored, that the NAO can't just hang out negative. Storms tend to, but not always, occur when the index is rising or falling. The reason for that is intuitively clear, and shows up in hard statistics too (H. Archembault), when the indexes et al are static (not changing), that means the pattern lacks large scale mixing of differential air masses. No mix, no storm, go back to sleep and dream. The way it is manifesting its self this particular time is the current vortex that is trundling over head, migrates with epic lethargy up into the 45N/50W approximate lat/lon, and then stalls. It stalls because of blocking associated with the -NAO. It then just wobbles around there, spokes of pointless vorticity coming around... But the flow over the continent is taking on a +PNAP orientation, and that means ridge west/trough east couplet. What you wind up with is one helluva confluence near New England, where the flow around the western side of the spring killer vortex is incurring upon the flow coming up along EC, and that also kills the late season nor'easter. I thought yesterday that the models, particularly the UKMET, might be holding onto the vortex too long, both spatially and amplitude -wise, but we are going the wrong direction right now in the modeling of that feature. Seems even more robust in the charts since then. With the NAO being heavily suppressed among all agencies, only showing an ease off until after 6 or 7 days from now... prospects seem to favor deconstructive wave interference. Of course ... you still could hold out for that GGEM if you want - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'd love for this storm to get some room to amplify, but if it doesn't, at least it looks like I will go wire to wire with March snowpack. Haven't done that since March 2001. Almost did it in 2005, but didn't quite make it. I think there's a window for two more threats though after 3/25. The margin for error become less and less as climo will start intruding upon us...but even with that, I think the pattern should be watched closely through 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'd love for this storm to get some room to amplify, but if it doesn't, at least it looks like I will go wire to wire with March snowpack. Haven't done that since March 2001. Almost did it in 2005, but didn't quite make it. I think there's a window for two more threats though after 3/25. The margin for error become less and less as climo will start intruding upon us...but even with that, I think the pattern should be watched closely through 4/5. I'd rather suck a tailpipe than here about more snow threats. I miss Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is the April 3 threat still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Is the April 3 threat still there? Dude, its 12 days out, lol...yeah its still hinted on the ensembles. I wouldn't even worry about it until later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 the sad thing is in some respect it's not even really that cold. We are below normal certainly, but there have been many a March that has been colder than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I'd love for this storm to get some room to amplify, but if it doesn't, at least it looks like I will go wire to wire with March snowpack. Haven't done that since March 2001. Almost did it in 2005, but didn't quite make it. I think there's a window for two more threats though after 3/25. The margin for error become less and less as climo will start intruding upon us...but even with that, I think the pattern should be watched closely through 4/5. Yeah, that's definitely a possibility - cold departures should accompany these last 10 days, whether it snows or not. For some of these lower elevations it's a moot point, however. Here in Ayer for example, we lost all snow twice this month already before recovering a pack during bigger events - or maybe it was twice since Feb 15... Anyway, looking at some sat derived snow cover products, it's pretty much moot for 60% or more of the area, as bare ground intervals have already occurred. It would have been more impressive if it was a panned snow cover March - but I am not sure if that has ever happened. Heh. I see things potentially flipping the season switch in early April though. Not sure how abrupt that will be, but the AO is even more concerted in the GEFs for a rapid recovery, even going positive by April 1 or 2nd. The PNA "spike" is pretty much gone, now more neutral, the EPO is less negative, too... The NAO ...heh... Diabatic influx to the system will also offset colder patterns going forward. Bottom line, any index relaxation at all during this particular climate era and the house of card crumbles - the cold bubble pops. Tick tock tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 the NAM phases a piece of the block into the storm at the end of the run so it almost gets it done. But it's the NAM at 84 hrs so whatever lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 I don't think we'll see much of a flip until at least 4/10..maybe mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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