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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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I'm actually favoring a continued north trend on this...I'm not sure if it will trend north enough to smoke us, but the Euro ensembles have been north of the OP for quite some time and all other global guidance is well north. Euro hasn't been all that spectacular this winter outside of 3 days...aside from really catching onto the Feb blizzard.

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Record snowfall season for Tolland County? CT DEEP states the state's record snowfall is 115.2". Not sure how accurate that is, but places like Staffordville, Tolland and Coventry could break that.

 

http://t.co/Fat85FUyKo

 

I'm pretty sure the state record for seasonal snowfall in CT is Norfolk, CT with 177.4" in 1955-1956.

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Tip, you forgot about the JMA.

 

yeah yeah yeah - i was trying to rely on the most dependable models     ;)

 

no, it's really more for muse, of course.  it's just fun to look at errant runs; they are like odes to a dream.   But ...heh, you never know.  

 

Seeing the Euro trend N so much - hey, sun shines on a dogs ass once in a while.   

 

Actually, what did the JMA have?   

 

No ... in all seriousness, the issue here is the location and depth of the polar vortex that situated as a 50/50 sort-of circulation as we get through the weekend.  Take the 12z UKMET for example:  It has a decent 500mb structure with attending sfc reflection, at/around 72 hours, but it all just falls to pieces immediately there after.  Why?  Because if you look down stream, the vortex is still mightily in tact, and not really moving...  That supplies a big "crunch" in the flow, and evolving wave-spacing/damping takes place.  The vortex being the stronger of the two, the model opts to maintain it in lieu of the system decay on the EC.   

 

Wrong - 

 

I think the model is holding onto that vortex position and strength too long.   The other models, include the recent GFS, and now the Oper Euro trend, show that feature filling more, and pulling away.  That opens the door for a more favorable wave spacing, and the conservation of moment et al with OV-MA translating system.   

 

I think there is a solid median chance for a middle to upper impact winter storm, yet again during that time.   By the way, the 22nd through the 28th has been flagged by the teleconnectors for over a week now, and last night, the CDC PNA NAO together are flagging an Archy nearing April Fools.   Hmm

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yeah yeah yeah - i was trying to rely on the most dependable models     ;)

 

no, it's really more for muse, of course.  it's just fun to look at errant runs; they are like odes to a dream.   But ...heh, you never know.  

 

Seeing the Euro trend N so much - hey, sun shines on a dogs ass once in a while.   

 

Actually, what did the JMA have?   

 

No ... in all seriousness, the issue here is the location and depth of the polar vortex that situated as a 50/50 sort-of circulation as we get through the weekend.  Take the 12z UKMET for example:  It has a decent 500mb structure with attending sfc reflection, at/around 72 hours, but it all just falls to pieces immediately there after.  Why?  Because if you look down stream, the vortex is still mightily in tact, and not really moving...  That supplies a big "crunch" in the flow, and evolving wave-spacing/damping takes place.  The vortex being the stronger of the two, the model opts to maintain it in lieu of the system decay on the EC.   

 

Wrong - 

 

I think the model is holding onto that vortex position and strength too long.   The other models, include the recent GFS, and now the Oper Euro trend, show that feature filling more, and pulling away.  That opens the door for a more favorable wave spacing, and the conservation of moment et al with OV-MA translating system.   

 

I think there is a solid median chance for a middle to upper impact winter storm, yet again during that time.   By the way, the 22nd through the 28th has been flagged by the teleconnectors for over a week now, and last night, the CDC PNA NAO together are flagging an Archy nearing April Fools.   Hmm

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif

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I like our whole areas chances of breaking our record from 96 whatever that number is

 

I had 133.3" that season.  You, Coventry and Staffordville probably had close to 150" since you average about 10% more than me on any given storm.

 

I need 9.9" to break 100".  That would be my second time breaking the 100" mark.  This season is currently #4 at 90.1".  If I get another 0.8" it will be #3.  #2 is 93.3" so that is in reach.  I doubt I break 133" but another April '97 would put me close!

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I had 133.3" that season.  You, Coventry and Staffordville probably had close to 150" since you average about 10% more than me on any given storm.

 

I need 9.9" to break 100".  That would be my second time breaking the 100" mark.  This season is currently #4 at 90.1".  If I get another 0.8" it will be #3.  #2 is 93.3" so that is in reach.  I doubt I break 133" but another April '97 would put me close!

 

Looks like we're in pretty good shape to easily reach #2! 

 

I love how our amounts are almost exactly the same for every storm...

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Because you're not emotionally invested you've been given the power of the gods. :P

 

Muah hahahaha - my evil plan is almost complete.

 

actually, if i could have my druthers we'd be pushing tulips and mowing lawns, swiping bees away, planting gardens, and ogling shamelessly at 27-year old ladies dressed for warmer days.  

 

buuut we put are dreams away -   

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He has 28" so far this month from the two storms so he should be at 97" right now. He might be slightly higher if he recorded any tenths in between the events, but I don't really think there were any instances like that this month.

 

Yeah, I don't think so and I looked at the coop dailies and didn't see anything.  He seemed low though on yesterday afternoon's and this early mornings snow by a couple of tenths but he's got to be right around 97".

 

I'm glad he doesn't post here because my wife knows his wife (small town) and he's a real weenie.  I guess he has this whole room setup with multiple monitors and instruments where he just weenies out when there is a storm lol.

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Wow that much? I wonder how much if that was lake effect? Was that a big snow

Year?

Doubt there was much LES in that. 55-56 was a good late-season snow year for much of the Northeast, and Norfolk recorded 101" total for March-April, 73" in March. Then April had a 19" event on 8-9th. They've also had 3 years in the 150s, 60-61, 66-67, and 95-96, all big snow years in NE places far from LES. Their avg is over 90" - helps being at 1,340' in NW CT.

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Yeah, I don't think so and I looked at the coop dailies and didn't see anything. He seemed low though on yesterday afternoon's and this early mornings snow by a couple of tenths but he's got to be right around 97".

I'm glad he doesn't post here because my wife knows his wife (small town) and he's a real weenie. I guess he has this whole room setup with multiple monitors and instruments where he just weenies out when there is a storm lol.

Lol. I bet he does know of this place. His name is Jeff Aborn. I wonder if he just sits in that room naked during storms staring at all his instruments
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That DEEP site has a lot of suspect "totals" and "records." I should have put a little more though into spewing that.

 

Here's a rough, approximate map of estimated snowfall totals since autumn. Most of the numbers are from here, a few are sprinkled in from other sources. I whipped it together really quick, so it's certainly up for debate and scrutiny. I wonder if there are higher values in NW CT, but when I checked some COOP stations from Dutchess County, N.Y., they were close to 50".

post-533-0-85781300-1363809118_thumb.png

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