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The lions end to March banter and discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Boy the operational runs are being real cagey as to how evolved the scenario becomes next week.  Appears the current mid level vortex having traveling disabilities as it heads into the lower Maritimes, parked up under a -NAO, is causing problems for operational runs as to how to handle the next arriving impulse in the series.  They are opting to take the damping route, which is not altogether unreasonable - it should actually decay if the governing wave spacing does not support it presence at that time.  However, it is always dubious as to whether the models are handling the down stream complex circulation with the departing vortex and the -NAO.  If the vortex component of that where to weaken more or move farther E in time, than more would conserve and we would find more east coastal development.  

 

Several 00z GFS ensemble members had giant monster storms with this. Some did show a different evolution down stream, and wound up with deep 500mb centers deepening under LI, with 24 hours of intense CCB depictions fisting into the New England and upper MA regions.   Just waiting for one of these solutions to visit the operational version.   Seeing as the Euro ensemble mean was N of the operational, it is safe to assume that there are members there that have more impact this far up the coast compared to the operational version. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Euro has two threats in the pipeline not counting that little inverted trough deal on Thursday...it has the 3/25-26 threat and then another possible chance around 3/28.

 

I dont think we are finished.

 

There is an end hinted though ...whether that's "in sight", probably not just yet, but the extended teleconnector layouts are pulling the plug a bit now. 

 

The CDC agency has the -NAO strong but weakening to within a stone's throw of neutral by D10.  They are split on the EPO, however, with NESRL going nuts with a negative, and the NCEP not...  flip that coin.    But I thought the CPC AO was interesting... showing a very concerted rise. In fact, we go from near record nadir, to most members passing neutral in just 6 days!    

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

There after, most members are squarely positive - that kind of contraction N may very well herald the end of the delivery and a break down of the blocking paradigm.   By then nearing April first sun, that might just do it if the NAO does in fact weaken.  If the AO does weaken though, the NAO won't be delivering the same kind of cold.  

 

The EPO and PNA are wild cards.  If the ESRL channel is correct about the EPO, a well timed PNA would be a deadly combo for "spring-around-the-corner" hopefuls.  But it's edgy ... waver the other way just a little bit and it geta balmy ... and it can migrate that way rather abruptly.  

 

We are in a kind of blessed (if you are a winter enthusiast) wintry cocoon right now ... a dimension devoid of sight and sound, a Twilight zone, affording the perpetuation of a delusion.  Haha.     But it is an anomalous cold bubble for these 10 days, that could pop very fast should the AO pendulum swing quickly the other way, and the NAO blocking indeed weakens.

 

I tell you what I'm afraid of... When this finally breaks down, you have to wonder if this won't turn out to be a hell of a backdoor plaguing spring.  Vestigial albeit weak NAO going into May can mean cut-off rain cold mud season lasting weeks on end.  Remember 2000 and f* in the rear 5?  I guess it's been a while since we've had a patented 48 drizzly Boston while it is 78F in Albany spring in quite some time.   

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CoolMike

CoolMike

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Looking at the slope of the forecasted AO index makes me wonder if there is any known relationship between increased stormyness and the vector / derivative of the NAO / AO?  I'm just curious wether it is only the sign and amplitude of the AO that is important or wether the slope of the AO / direction and intensity of the change could also be important.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well the thing is, while the AO rises, the PNA does too and that brings colder air into the northeast. I think we go into the first week fo April at least with threats. But yeah..you did mention the PNA and EPO so that certainly will drive the bus.

 

Yeah, wild cards ...  I'm not really convinced that they will do that though.  The EPO is handled differently depending on model type/cluster.  ESLR and NCEP are not on the same page, as per the CDC.   The ECMWF is also not showing the EPO dip that the ESLR does, either.   The PNA rise has also dampened somewhat over the last two cycles.  The current CPC PNA "spikes" it but only to neutral.   

 

So there is a mix bag from the PNA and EPO.   Euro ensembles are wishy washy indicating a mere -.5, which may not stress the mass field enough to promote cold this far south post the Equinox.   

 

00zecmwfensepo.gif  

 

I guess the point I'm really trying to make here is that the erstwhile cold signals are so overwhelming they are - of course - belaying the arrival of spring. But we are still on a warmer planet, where the 30-year mean is a trendline pointing up.  If these signal start to back off the cold throttle, I suspect we break warm continentally (though perhaps not in New England because of that cold ocean and any lingering NAO puking BD's our way...) prior to the signals actually being warm, per se.   I could almost imagine that we are monitoring storm succession in the runs and then one day it sneaks to 60 somehow and then two cycles later, the storms lose out to utterly dissolved baroclinic fields and amorphous thermal layouts at the hand of solar assassination.  Threat summarily gone or way under-performed.   Meanwhile ... the collective still can't accept it's over...  

 

I remember one year in the mid 2000s back in the days of Eastern's glory, there was a big deep 500mb vortex toward the middle of April on the mid range charts, and everyone was gaga as it neared the east coast.  But the thermal fields had completely neutralized the week in advanced, such that all that took place was broken cirrus, over layers of alto-stratus and some cu - sprinkled in a couple of band.  I mean ... that's what happens after the Equinox, and we are so in the bubble now it might be tough to remember that things tend to go flat.   

 

Obviously there have been big events even in April - but that requires exotic anomalies.... neutralizing teleconnectors don't suggest that would be the case.  I I think things back down slowly over the next 10 days ... threats in there, sure.   

 

Ha, I hate the month of April either way.  It's rotten most years ...unrelenting vomit off the ocean while NYS is already planting early crops and driving around with the tops down on their cars.  Best backdoor ...well, worst, I guess, I remember was 1998, March 31st.   The 29th through the 31s had high temperatures near 90s in the Merrimack Valley my senior year at UML.  DPs were like 29F, but ...that's typical for early warm bursters because theirs no foliage.  Anyway,  around 3:30pm on the 31st, the heat maxed at 92F - the ETA had Boston going from 270 at like 12kts, to 040 at 33kts by 00z that evening.   Oh man ... ugh ugh ugh.   I remember looking at the Caribou Maine ob and seeing winds at 045, gusting over 40kts, temperature of 38 or something obnoxious.  Meanwhile, the thermometer at the school still registered a toasty 89.9F at the moment I looked.   

 

I go to dinner at the now defunct ...demolished in fact, Smith Hall cafeteria after a brief nap, and when I come out of the dining area around 7pm, there is dust swirling around the common in front of the Hall, flags pointed up at angles toward the SW, and low scud moving SW at ludicrous speed.  

 

April 1st, 1pm, 39.8F, slate gray skies, flags wobbling like they were dying.   I remember some girls were still trying to pull off shorts having not gotten their heads wrapped around the change.   That was tough week to 10 days that followed.  I think there was even a glop type snow threat in there a week later, too.  

 

I just f* hate April.  Oh god - 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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This inv trough deal...if it comes could really pound someone. Super unstable and when the globals have decent QPF...look out.

 

 

The Euro was sick with it...but the best stuff was barely offshore to the south...but if that came onshore, someone would prob see a foot, lol.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah, wild cards ...  I'm not really convinced that they will do that though.  The EPO is handled differently depending on model type/cluster.  ESLR and NCEP are not on the same page, as per the CDC.   The ECMWF is also not showing the EPO dip that the ESLR does, either.   The PNA rise has also dampened somewhat over the last two cycles.  The current CPC PNA "spikes" it but only to neutral.   

 

So there is a mix bag from the PNA and EPO.   Euro ensembles are wishy washy indicating a mere -.5, which may not stress the mass field enough to promote cold this far south post the Equinox.   

 

00zecmwfensepo.gif  

 

Yeah the signal is weaker on the euro ensembles. Still a troughy look in early April but the amplitude has relaxed too. There has been some model shifts from run to run so it may be the heights trying to reshuffle with possible MJO help.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Wish that could be more widespread like even if some area gets heavy snow at least other areas could get a few inches over all of SNE

 

It's definitely more for SE MA and especially Cape. Turn to next week, euro ensembles again had a low near and just SE of the BM.

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