Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Heh, slips out south - but it's a doozy while it does. At this range and this model ... hell, any model, we should just be mindful of the fact that there is a multi-run, multi-model type signal that matches well with/has teleconnector support, and go with it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, I'd put the sour toned, downer attitudes away on that thing. That was a helluva NORLUN suggestion on the 00z Euro, and the signal is pretty clear amid all operational model types - I'm to assume you've all covered so no sense in re-iterating. Point is, it's a "hook-and-latter" deal, where if something happens it walls in from the E on a N lash. Could be 2-4" or 3-5" back to I-95 with that deal - and if does align into a convergence axis extending deeper west up under those cold heights, there could be some banding into interior zones. Not saying it's a go - but the signal is real... This run is arriving with a very powerful cannon ball into the TV area for the signal later on... By the way, ...and again I assume this was covered: how about the 3" QPF nuke on the MA for 180 hours off the 06z ?! Good gungamingus on that one! You know, we are on the edge of the precipice, let's see if luck can push us over; I'd love to eek out the snowiest winter ever at ORH, while having it be among the warmer. That'll scratch heads - Have blocking, have fun...lol. This pattern is a loaded gun with a January like atmosphere. Pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Have blocking, have fun...lol. This pattern is a loaded gun with a January like atmosphere. Pretty awesome. Say that 10 times over, package it carefully ... put it on the shelf for future generations to ogle because if things break right, this is a memorable thing you tell future generations. Even at half the potential being realized, there should be something important falling out of all this. You know - I was just thinking: it never ceases to amaze me when in later March, if you are in an unusually cold pattern, just how much of a cold cocoon you are living in. It's chilly by day ... off set by a warming sun, but then quite cold by night. Storms come and go and they tend to, or are outright, blue snows... But it's a cold bubble, fragile, and a delusion provided by nature for those that have difficulty letting go of winter for their own druthers. It's ready to pop the whole time. If pattern switch is flipped just THAT much, having that sun approaching Equinox strength and gaining 2% insolation power per day, ...man you shoot to 70F in no time at all! Think about that as we peer over a couple three significant snow threats spanning these next 10 days. But so long as that bubble remains in tact, we get to remain cozy and completely oblivious to it. It's interesting. Especially in this statistically proven warm climate flux geological history we are living in, if you consider a west wind with rising heights in here?? That is a WHOLE different universe going forward. We Just got to get the record breaking -AO, and accompanying deep -NAO to relax, and it's shorts wearing, black flies on the Golf courses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 LOL for late-week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GEFS look better than the op for that storm next week. It's still in la-la land though..but the signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GGEM looks like it likes later this week. Has a 986mb low around the BM. Precip only makes it back to BOS/PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GGEM also has next weeks threat. WOW! 984mb low at the NC/VA coast at 180hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 this march is proving that march can be a snowy month still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Hands down Will lives in the best spot for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro looks like a little inv trough action here later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro looks like a little inv trough action here later this week. Wasn't as good as the 00z run, but that piece of energy rounding the base will def need to be watched. I could see a minor event occurring with that...if it ended up sharper near the base of the ULL, it could be something larger, but right now only some of the weenie over-amped SREF members have it as more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 MOS FTL all week...take 'em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 MOS FTL all week...take 'em down.Yeah especially with deep snowcover to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro is waaaaayyy S with Low next week. Comes off the FL/GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro is waaaaayyy S with Low next week. Comes off the FL/GA coast. Ouch. That's bad news for us here. However, there is plenty of time for this to change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ouch. That's bad news for us here. However, there is plenty of time for this to change many times. Remember what happened last time Virginia/North Carolina were forecast to see a late-season snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Not a fan of inverted trof. too reliant on being in the good band. outside of it warm bl garbage mix in a month like march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Interesting D7 on the Euro. It's gone completely nebular in the flow construct above 40 N from the Atlantic all the way to the Pacific, with multiple micro-SPV features and no clear dominating wave configuration. Looks really bizarre. The main band of the westerlies is heavily suppressed S, no doubt in keeping with the -AO. It's almost like the model is lost between spring and the AO anomaly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Interesting D7 on the Euro. It's gone completely nebular in the flow construct above 40 N from the Atlantic all the way to the Pacific, with multiple micro-SPV features and no clear dominating wave configuration. Looks really bizarre. The main band of the westerlies is heavily suppressed S, no doubt in keeping with the -AO. It's almost like the model is lost between spring and the AO anomaly - One thing that is a lock for sure...Spring is completely cancelled for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 One thing that is a lock for sure...Spring is completely cancelled for the rest of the month. Yeah... this AO has to come off this biblical nadir before THAT can happen - lord! The CPC does show every member climbing out pretty dramatically as April 1 nears (12 days), though there is some spread there. It probably doesn't have to come completely back to positive before we break warmer, though. About 7 days from now we'll know if that climb out is legit or not. The NAO is also progged down to -2.5SD, and only recovering to -1. The odds favor a stormy March. It's not even clear how negative it will be - every climo site was above normal through the 11th or 12th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Once the AO rises..the PNA does too...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 You every think about this ... it's equivalent to Sept 24th solar insolation outside. Can you imagine it ever being this way in the charts on Sept. 24th - that whole seasonal lag thing is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Once the AO rises..the PNA does too...lol. LOL, I know - ... But in theory the PNA means less correlation post April 1. That doesn't stop on a dime though, no way - so the first half of the month there's some applicability remaining. Matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston At 12:57 PM the temperature at BOS reached 32 degrees which is the high so far today...it is also the normal low temperature for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ive seen snow stick here in the middle of may You every think about this ... it's equivalent to Sept 24th solar insolation outside. Can you imagine it ever being this way in the charts on Sept. 24th - that whole seasonal lag thing is pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 LOL, I know - ... But in theory the PNA means less correlation post April 1. That doesn't stop on a dime though, no way - so the first half of the month there's some applicability remaining. Matter of how much. It looks like it's enough to force more troughing in the east if the Euro and GFS ensembles are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro ensembles definitely north of the op for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro ensembles definitely north of the op for next week. The ensemble mean has decent QPF in here for 3/25-26...impressive for that far out. A lot of amped members must be in that ensemble mean to bring up the QPF like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Man impressed... A couple few of the GFS ensemble members clip us pretty hard with that 84-96 hour thing... But it is just the overall deportment of a cold stormy pattern right out through 384 hours that is just insane. May not see a real tulip punch until much later than usual - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Coolest weather weenie beer label evah' ! Boulevard Grain Storm Black Rye: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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