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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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Hedge colder in this setup I think.

 

I agree.

 

I mean it's early yet, so our rain or snow forecast to the mountains is fine, but it's probably time to start bringing that line closer to the coast. We pretty much know the areas that retain the cold well in these set ups, but I won't pick up the forecast at all. My mids will start on the long term (but the storm will reside in the short term by then).

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Several runs in a row of that too. Tremendous height falls making up for that primary cutting west. Warmth can't flood north when the heights are coming down like that.

 

Yeah would gladly take the ECMWF's 1.25" QPF as snow... sign me up for this one. 

 

This also has my upslope fetish tickled as that secondary goes to town somewhere in northern ME or southern Quebec.  That may be what takes VT to that next level of snowfall...noticed a lot of 0.08"/0.07"/0.05" type precip amounts on the ECM printout with NW winds, which is pretty much the upslope signal of persistent snows.  Same would go for GYX's northern slope of NH/ME too I would assume.

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Yeah would gladly take the ECMWF's 1.25" QPF as snow... sign me up for this one. 

 

This also has my upslope fetish tickled as that secondary goes to town somewhere in northern ME or southern Quebec.  That may be what takes VT to that next level of snowfall...noticed a lot of 0.08"/0.07"/0.05" type precip amounts on the ECM printout with NW winds, which is pretty much the upslope signal of persistent snows.  Same would go for GYX's northern slope of NH/ME too I would assume.

 

That part of the forecast I will have under my control. Would certainly seem to be the favored evolution, given what the Euro keeps spitting out.

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I'm envisioning snow to sleet/ice in the interior right now. But this can def still trend colder. Keep an eye on the ULL northeast of Maine over the next coupel of days on the models...that might end up departing slower as the NAO block retrogrades...if it does, that would force this system to redevelop sooner.

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The only accumulation we can really count on is the initial thump and for those that are lucky enough to get enhanced snowfall rates from the developing secondary (think Dendrite and Dryslot).

 

Otherwise lighter rates are only good between about 6 PM  and 8 AM now.

Talking about as ULL pivots across Tuesday night. There's always a band of snow with those in these secondary / WAA thump systems

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I'm envisioning snow to sleet/ice in the interior right now. But this can def still trend colder. Keep an eye on the ULL northeast of Maine over the next coupel of days on the models...that might end up departing slower as the NAO block retrogrades...if it does, that would force this system to redevelop sooner.

 

Even the 18z GFS was real cold here to start. I don't see how the interior goes above 32 from you on north...even Kevin may only briefly go above..but easily could stay below.

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Even the 18z GFS was real cold here to start. I don't see how the interior goes above 32 from you on north...even Kevin may only briefly go above..but easily could stay below.

 

 

Yeah the only way is if the secondary sfc low ends up much weaker and tracks almost inland...otherwise its going to be almost impossible to get that type of airmass out. I still think this could trend to all/mostly snow too. I think we'll have a much better idea by the 00z runs tomorrow night as the system will be down to about 48-60 hours out.

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Yeah the only way is if the secondary sfc low ends up much weaker and tracks almost inland...otherwise its going to be almost impossible to get that type of airmass out. I still think this could trend to all/mostly snow too. I think we'll have a much better idea by the 00z runs tomorrow night as the system will be down to about 48-60 hours out.

The GFS is finally getting away from that weird two part thing it was showing too. I certainly could see a snowier outcome if that block keeps trying to build sw.

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