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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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What a winter for the snowpack fetish folks like you and me. I remember we joked about 70-71 winter in the fall ..This may rival that. Only a few days of no pack since Dec 24th

 

 

Nah this is nothing like that winter...we had like 18"+ OTG that winter for almost 3 months. This winter, we had to survive for periods with only 6-8" of crust and had bare ground for a chunk o fDecember. We've had some impressive snow pack at times...don't get me wrong, but you would not even put those two winters in the same ballpark if you experienced both of them (or seen the data)

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Nah this is nothing like that winter...we had like 18"+ OTG that winter for almost 3 months. This winter, we had to survive for periods with only 6-8" of crust and had bare ground for a chunk o fDecember. We've had some impressive snow pack at times...don't get me wrong, but you would not even put those two winters in the same ballpark if you experienced both of them (or seen the data)

Didnt we have a long snow pack in one of the early 2000's winters? My memory isnt as good as yours but I seem to remember an early storm and a good snow year, maybe got down to some bare spots here and there but most of the winter was snow covered ground.

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I gotta say..today was a brutal torch..Congrats Tip on that call..even though you called for it on Sunday..i mean it hit 51 here..totally shocked me. I thought the snowcover would help keep things cooler in the low 40's. In the sun it must have been 70 as folks were laying out tanning on tops of snowbanks

 

Tomorrow will be warmer though - 

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Best part of the time change is the GFS now comes out at 1130,worst part is Euro at 2 am. Too bad we can't switch that too.

 

LOL I was just going to post something on the time change.....seems like yesterday we fell back.....oh well.....liking that winter might hang tough.....been a while.....

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0z GFS is wicked cold in the medium range...here are a couple of snapshots that I posted in the NYC thread....

 

850s get down to around -15C Thursday following the mid-week cold front, could be a struggle to break freezing in the hills even down to CT/RI:

post-475-0-50029200-1362900895_thumb.gif

 

This weekend has an overrunning event seemingly caused by lobes of energy rotating around the PV, also supported by a strong arctic high with -20C 850s to the north:

post-475-0-76426100-1362900970_thumb.gif

 

The west-based -NAO forming is absolutely classic:

 

I don't think we've seen cold anomalies like this in March since 2007, and it may go back even longer. Even in the fairly chilly March 2011, I think the coldest we got at 850mb was around -11C in NYC, and it certainly wasn't sustained as the models are showing. This period of blocking should give us a chance for several storm systems and ensure a colder than normal March. The GFS shows the west-based block remaining intact until 3/23 when it slowly begins to break down. Colder than normal temperatures remain in the east with an ULL over the region to the end of the fantasy range. 

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Well we are ll going to wipe out our snowpack as things have trended warmer and worse on Monday and Tuesday. 50's with dews in the 50's on Tuesday will obliterate it..even at ORH and north..I thought maybe we'd keep some..but an inch of rain with warm, humid,,sultry south winds will wipe it out.  

 

And then cold and dry for days and days and days

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Well we are ll going to wipe out our snowpack as things have trended warmer and worse on Monday and Tuesday. 50's with dews in the 50's on Tuesday will obliterate it..even at ORH and north..I thought maybe we'd keep some..but an inch of rain with warm, humid,,sultry south winds will wipe it out.  

 

And then cold and dry for days and days and days

 

Your mental state in winter is interesting.

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Spring is coming, can't stop it. But it what flavor?  Ensembles are leaning to the Winter side of Spring, frigid in fact. (2 week lead)  No ridge in the East also still in -NOA regime. An elongated longitudal look to the LW pattern. Personaly I want that first 70 degree day so I can shave this long faced ZZ look. 4 inch facial hair has served it purpose.

 

Holding off on the all clear call. A couple of chances are still signaled. 

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