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The lions end to March banter and discussion

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Looks like pike north

 

I agree, This one is more of a pike north deal as there will be BL issues south of the pike taken verbatim on the track of the secondary hugging the coast on the Euro

 

Well first day of daycare for my son. Kind of a weird moment..but it's no choice.

 

Reality really sets in when you have to take out your wallet on friday's to pay

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Whineminster

Whineminster

Posted
Posted

we took a beating for sure. I'm down to 8" in most spots with 10-12" in North facing areas

Yeah it was depressing.  You seem to have held better than me.  Half my front yard is now grass.  I was up in northern Ashburnham on Monday and they had almost double what I had, at least it appeared that way.   You know when winter is ending because the lights at Wachusett now turn off right after 8 PM instead of 10 PM. :violin:

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

The new NAM suddenly got a lot more interesting with the clipper for Joe and the southwest CT people as well as Metro NYC. 

I agree, This one is more of a pike north deal as there will be BL issues south of the pike taken verbatim on the track of the secondary hugging the coast on the Euro

 

 

Reality really sets in when you have to take out your wallet on friday's to pay

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Maybe this is me being a weenie, but I can see that low on the euro a bit more se. Also, the euro really deepens it which locks in ageostrophic north flow just NW of the low track. Interesting.

 

 

There would be zero chance of rain on a Euro track in the interior...and prob not very far into the interior either to stay all frozen. BOS is frigid at the start too.

 

My gut says this ends up pretty cold. Multiple factors favor it...retrograding NAO block, very cold antecedent airmass, and the seasonal trend also seems to point to it. Lows ending up a bit SE of medium range progs.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

There would be zero chance of rain on a Euro track in the interior...and prob not very far into the interior either to stay all frozen. BOS is frigid at the start too.

My gut says this ends up pretty cold. Multiple factors favor it...retrograding NAO block, very cold antecedent airmass, and the seasonal trend also seems to point to it. Lows ending up a bit SE of medium range progs.

You guys are a lock below 32. The forecasts right now are an abomination from the rip and readers. Embarrassing. I'm still seeing 45 Saturday. And let's not forget yesterday's 41 for BOS. Where is the meteorology these days?

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

You guys are a lock below 32. The forecasts right now are an abomination from the rip and readers. Embarrassing. I'm still seeing 45 Saturday. And let's not forget yesterday's 41 for BOS. Where is the meteorology these days?

 

Here.  

 

Another mid-winter like chill out there today.  11am and only near 30F.  Not too shabby.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Fox 25 has 50 for a high Tuesday ad then shows the euro snowfall output. What the bloody phuck?

 

 

Using MEX guidance for temps....MEX has 48F here for Tuesday...shows you the difference between the GFS and Euro solutions. GFS is kind of on its own now though with the warmer sfc low track. The other 3 medium range models (Euro/GGEM/Ukie) all track a secondary over the the Cape or near it.

 

Good luck getting upper 40s to the left of that track.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Using MEX guidance for temps....MEX has 48F here for Tuesday...shows you the difference between the GFS and Euro solutions. GFS is kind of on its own now though with the warmer sfc low track. The other 3 medium range models (Euro/GGEM/Ukie) all track a secondary over the the Cape or near it.

Good luck getting upper 40s to the left of that track.

Misleading when you have 50 for the viewing area. I find it hard to believe most people in the viewing area see that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

This is iffy the whole way..

 

One,  ALL models are in question as to how much N stream phasing occurs between 72 and 108 hours.   Virtually all individual members of the GFS, along with the 00z operational versions I have seen show between 70 and 100% phasing prior to 108 hours.  What that does is then rolls up all the dynamics into a atmospheric wrecking ball that slams up into the -NAO ridge/trough couplet.   In terms of orders of magnitude arguments alone, what happens next is questionable ... 

 

Two, many of the GFS members, including the operational version (00Z) smash the wrecking ball into the SPV region of the -NAO ridge/trough couplet ... ultimately, dislodging it and removing it lieu of its own arriving presence.  That allows for the wrecking ball to manage a rather not-well statistically correlated position N of the U.P. of Michigan, ...then, it slowly bores its way E of there through NNE and ultimately decaying in the Maritimes way out there in time.  That's the GFS mean.   

 

First of all, the amount/degree of phasing in "one" above is in question, and that will ultimately probably parlay into what happens thereafter with "two".  If less phasing results, the wave will remain open, longer, and probably unzips the atmosphere as it cuts east through the MV .... ultimately -->  more Miller B.  If the GFS cluster were right (and Euro operational actually does a lot of phasing early, too), then some latitude anomaly at and after 108 hours is acceptable, but not to the degree of the GFS operational runs from either 00z or 06z.  That appears way over cooked.  Yeah, it's a powerful feature in a more phased scenario, but it pales in comparison to the majesty of a full on -NAO ridge/trough coupled Rex - it's like trying to move a freight-train pileup with speeding SUV.   

 

That said, ...not sure why the GFS is persisting stubbornly there, but it will be interesting to test the circulation at large and see which really wins - and why it does or does not in retrospect.  

 

Other implications:  When looping the blend of the GFS ensemble cluster (00Z), an interesting characteristic emerges; a cold conveyor formulates on the polarward side of the SPV axis, that takes 4 to 5, 12-hour cycles to break down.  That's a fantastic implication in its own rite.  Unfortunately for the snow lovers in SNE ... as is the blend has the axis of the SPV starting out N of us, then slipping south while weakening through those 5 cycles.   Someone in southern/eastern Ontario through upstate NY and NNE could be in quite the snow belt as is, while we quasi - dry slot S of the SPV just after the initial passage of the baroclinic zone.  

 

The possibilities with this whole playout through the beginning - middle and late next week are plenty.  If less phasing happens in the nearer term could/would translate probably to some kind of intense late season Nor-easter.   A correction of the GFS cluster could mean hybrid primary/Miller B compromise -->  which is more than less what the Euro is arguing for.   Some of the less dependable model types are also more than less on that page.  For these ending reasons alone, it is probably the course of least regret to go with that the unanimous/blended depiction, of a somewhat stronger primary lifting into the Lakes, then slamming to a halt as the -NAO exerts on the field - this will likely induce a shearing/shredding of the dynamics as the remaining mid level jet dynamics are forced S, igniting a coastal of unknown ultimate intensity to impact the upper MA and New England regions.  Given to antecedent cold thickness anomalies, pervasively spread out over eastern Canada and favorably situated to bleed S into those regions, much of what falls as a result would have to be on the frozen/freezing side. That's what I suggest.   But it will also be important to monitor the stream interactions in the nearer terms (prior to 108 hours), to determine just what is going to be relayed from the west up into the blocky regime in the east.   

 

Beyond that there are almost no warm teleconnectors queued for eastern N/A.  The CDC EPO is showing two hefty downward spikes over the next 10 days to 2 weeks, and this is matched well enough against the operational Euro and GFS' having significant ridge nodes in the far NW Territories and Alaska regions in that time.   The EPO is a primary loading pattern of cold into the Canadian Shield, and then subsequently, timed -NAO intervals assist in deliveries.  That is precisely what is flagged - in fact, the NAO has if anything strengthened in the Euro operational and ensemble means of that product, spanning the rest of the month.  Between the 22 and the 28th of March should really be watched.  There is a huge signal in there - with these ongoing continental cooling signals taking place, there is a significant 4 day PNA positive interval during those days.  It doesn't take a tremendous intuitive leap to visualize a big negative counter-balancing anomaly running up under L.I. to atone for all this stuff.  

 

Keeping in mind also that the sun ads a percent and change worth if diabatic disruption in normalizing lower level thickness, and that will effect some - but right now the atmospheric tele's appear to overwhelm.    

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