The lions end to March banter and discussion

[SR Airglow]

We do?

-skisheep

 

Never mind, see below.

Well they are already tainting by 120h there, so to me it looked like a quick 4 or 5 inches and then pellets...but its bound to change.

 

I'd take that and RUN, an advisory event at this time of year would be awsome, and totally would exceed my expectations for this system. Lake Placid looks to do well with this, so I see anything down here as a bonus.

-skisheep

[MaineJayhawk]

I really need Eric to come through with Pope Woody.

 

I am missing something here.

 

Nice to see winter wants to go out with a roar.

[Ginx snewx]

I am missing something here.

Nice to see winter wants to go out with a roar.

put Scotts face on the Pope, Viva il Scooterino

[OSUmetstud]

I think Boston would be in trouble with the front end before it went to a more true coastal.  E to ESE surface winds on the Euro.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think Boston would be in trouble with the front end before it went to a more true coastal.  E to ESE surface winds on the Euro.

 

One would be inclined to think so in that set up, but that is one unusually cold air mass.   It's less than -30C @ 85-mbs over southern James Bay the day before, and a polar high blossoms right through that column just prior to settling into NNE.   

 

interesting.   If nothing else, one helluva coastal boundary could evolve.  

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles are similar to the OP run.

[Ginx snewx]

Ensembles are similar to the OP run.

Sweet, hopefully we can keep this going and get some records broken

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sweet, hopefully we can keep this going and get some records broken

March snowmaking at SR might be pointless.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Interesting article today in our local paper on March snowstorms, featuring 1888

[Typhoon Tip]

Ensembles are similar to the OP run.

 

Friend sent me the actual Euro print for FIT...  Looks like 10" about on the button.   

 

 

                                            12Z MAR14

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

TUE 06Z 19-MAR  -2.9    -5.9    1025      83      98    0.08     555     535    

TUE 12Z 19-MAR  -1.7    -6.0    1018      91      99    0.23     553     539    

TUE 18Z 19-MAR   0.5    -5.2    1008      95      99    0.33     546     539    

WED 00Z 20-MAR  -0.2    -5.6    1004      96      77    0.31     533     529    

WED 06Z 20-MAR  -4.7    -8.7    1006      84      90    0.12     524     519    

WED 12Z 20-MAR  -4.8   -10.5    1006      85      93    0.01     520     516    

WED 18Z 20-MAR   1.7    -8.6    1004      53     100    0.03     521     518    

THU 00Z 21-MAR  -3.7   -10.0    1008      75      96    0.01     521     515

[Ginx snewx]

March snowmaking at SR might be pointless.

They know what the customer wants, refreshing then natural.

[Roger]

what is everyone so excited about? I was watching Bouchard on ch7 and he's calling for partly cloudy skies on Saturday. Or is this for Mon/tues.

[Typhoon Tip]

Cisco put out a rare interesting discussion for him...  Going for more commitment to a coastal like Will and I were discussing earlier.

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1101 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2013VALID 12Z SUN MAR 17 2013 - 12Z THU MAR 21 2013SORTED OUT THE 00Z/14 GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BASED ON HOW MUCHEACH SOLUTION HONORED THE EXTREME BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THEMEDIUM RANGE--I.E. KEPT THE POLAR FRONT SUPPRESSED EAST OF THEROCKIES. THE 00Z/14 GEM GLOBAL AND BOTH THE 00Z/14 AND 06Z/14 GFSRUNS SHIFT PRIMACY FROM THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCK AND ALLOW THEENERGY STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN STATES TO SWAMP THE WEST, ANDEVENTUALLY THE PLAINS, WITH PACIFIC AIR. THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTICECMWF REPRESENTS THE OTHER EXTREME, WITH A COMPLIMENTARY BLOCKINGSERIES ALONG 40N. THE "MIRROR" BLOCK IN THAT MODEL RESULTS IN ADEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST MID PERIOD, THEN A DEEPSURFACE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CAPE COD BY DAY 7 ONTHE OTHER END OF THE WAVE TRAIN. THE ECENS MEAN IS NOT AS CLOSEDWITH ITS FEATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING, WITH THERESULT BEING LESS INTENSE LOWS FARTHER NORTH. ELECTED TO RELY ONTHE ECENS MEAN FOR BOTH ITS HONORING OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKINGAND ITS MORE MODERATE HANDLING OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.THE DISJOINTED WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAY 4HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MODELS FOR SOME TIME NOW. THERE IS ANEMERGING CLUSTER OF EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE NOTAS PHASED WITH THIS ENERGY, ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TOOUTRUN THE CANADIAN COUNTERPART. THIS UNPHASED CLUSTER WOULD ALLOWAN ENERGETIC WAVE TO STREAK EASTWARD ALONG THE POLAR FRONT LATESUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, PAINTING A STRIPE OF SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTICSTATES. IF THE PHASED GUIDANCE PANS OUT, THEN A TEMPORARY BUCKLINGOF THE FLOW WOULD WARM THE EASTERN STATES IN DEFERENCE TO A DEEP,PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS ALWAYS A DICEYAFFAIR, AND WITH THE PRIMACY OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCK, THERE ISENOUGH INTUITIVE SUPPORT FOR THE EMERGING CLUSTER TO AT LEASTEQUALLY WEIGHT THE TWO CAMPS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MOSTOBVIOUS REFLECTION OF THE HEDGE IN THE MANUAL PRESSURE GUIDANCEWOULD BY EARLY TUESDAY (DAY 5), WITH A MORE DOMINANT OCEAN CYCLONEINDICATED EAST OF NEW JERSEY.CISCO

[NorEastermass128]

what is everyone so excited about? I was watching Bouchard on ch7 and he's calling for partly cloudy skies on Saturday. Or is this for Mon/tues.

Mon/Tues

[Ginx snewx]

Cisco put out a rare interesting discussion for him...  Going for more commitment to a coastal like Will and I were discussing earlier.

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1101 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2013VALID 12Z SUN MAR 17 2013 - 12Z THU MAR 21 2013SORTED OUT THE 00Z/14 GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BASED ON HOW MUCHEACH SOLUTION HONORED THE EXTREME BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THEMEDIUM RANGE--I.E. KEPT THE POLAR FRONT SUPPRESSED EAST OF THEROCKIES. THE 00Z/14 GEM GLOBAL AND BOTH THE 00Z/14 AND 06Z/14 GFSRUNS SHIFT PRIMACY FROM THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCK AND ALLOW THEENERGY STREAMING INTO THE WESTERN STATES TO SWAMP THE WEST, ANDEVENTUALLY THE PLAINS, WITH PACIFIC AIR. THE 00Z/14 DETERMINISTICECMWF REPRESENTS THE OTHER EXTREME, WITH A COMPLIMENTARY BLOCKINGSERIES ALONG 40N. THE "MIRROR" BLOCK IN THAT MODEL RESULTS IN ADEEP SURFACE CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST MID PERIOD, THEN A DEEPSURFACE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CAPE COD BY DAY 7 ONTHE OTHER END OF THE WAVE TRAIN. THE ECENS MEAN IS NOT AS CLOSEDWITH ITS FEATURES SOUTH OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING, WITH THERESULT BEING LESS INTENSE LOWS FARTHER NORTH. ELECTED TO RELY ONTHE ECENS MEAN FOR BOTH ITS HONORING OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKINGAND ITS MORE MODERATE HANDLING OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.THE DISJOINTED WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES DAY 4HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MODELS FOR SOME TIME NOW. THERE IS ANEMERGING CLUSTER OF EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE NOTAS PHASED WITH THIS ENERGY, ALLOWING THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TOOUTRUN THE CANADIAN COUNTERPART. THIS UNPHASED CLUSTER WOULD ALLOWAN ENERGETIC WAVE TO STREAK EASTWARD ALONG THE POLAR FRONT LATESUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, PAINTING A STRIPE OF SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTICSTATES. IF THE PHASED GUIDANCE PANS OUT, THEN A TEMPORARY BUCKLINGOF THE FLOW WOULD WARM THE EASTERN STATES IN DEFERENCE TO A DEEP,PRIMARY LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. PHASING IS ALWAYS A DICEYAFFAIR, AND WITH THE PRIMACY OF THE HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCK, THERE ISENOUGH INTUITIVE SUPPORT FOR THE EMERGING CLUSTER TO AT LEASTEQUALLY WEIGHT THE TWO CAMPS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MOSTOBVIOUS REFLECTION OF THE HEDGE IN THE MANUAL PRESSURE GUIDANCEWOULD BY EARLY TUESDAY (DAY 5), WITH A MORE DOMINANT OCEAN CYCLONEINDICATED EAST OF NEW JERSEY.CISCO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2ZIZOOJvDU

[CoastalWx]

I am missing something here.

 

Nice to see winter wants to go out with a roar.

 

I said you should put a pic of Kevin's face on the pope when he stared out the window, yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles keep winter around right to the end of the month.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro ensembles keep winter around right to the end of the month.

 

 

Cycle after cycle after cycle ...unrelenting deep -NAO by the Euro ensembles... 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2ZIZOOJvDU

 

 

 

I like how he describes individual ensemble member (Euro) not phasing as much, allowing for the s solution.  that's pretty interesting I think.   

[Typhoon Tip]

There are definitely a few GFS members also more committed to a coastal/2ndary than the operational.  One even bombs it as it's moving by

 

[Ginx snewx]

I like how he describes individual ensemble member (Euro) not phasing as much, allowing for the s solution.  that's pretty interesting I think.   

Seems to be coming to fruition in todays runs, non phase with  secondary off NJ coast.

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems to be coming to fruition in todays runs, non phase with  secondary off NJ coast.

 

 

Yeah ...you know it's not that I "want" it to snow in the ides of March, per se - I just like things making sense.   That whole drilling of the primary into the -NAO train wreck is just not really ..reasonable looking.   

 

That said, lower els in interior SNE may actual recoup a snow pack and keep it for a few days the way these polarward teles are angled.  My god the AO is less than -5SD !

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah ...you know it's not that I "want" it to snow in the ides of March, per se - I just like things making sense.   That whole drilling of the primary into the -NAO train wreck is just not really ..reasonable looking.   

 

That said, lower els in interior SNE may actual recoup a snow pack and keep it for a few days the way these polarward teles are angled.  My god the AO is less than -5SD !

Yea like Don S points out that is an historic number

[dryslot]

There should be a separate thread for tues event to cut down on the confusion

[Ginx snewx]

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves but geez the week of the 25th, 1958 March is on there 4 times out of ten

[SR Airglow]

OKX has us at 47 tuesday, is it just me, or does that seem way too warm?

-skisheep

[Ginx snewx]

of course we have Jerrys March 1957 analog showing up next week. What a pattern ,hope it produces, oh and for sh its and giggles on the CIPS page today 4 of the top ten analogs are from 1994. Should be fun, not all white but maybe all frozen with another good shot the following week. Spring will come at some point we all know, maybe right into summer like some years.

[forkyfork]

spring will begin on the equinox like it always has

[Ginx snewx]

spring will begin on the equinox like it always has

Wait, according to the Mets it begins March 1, you mean all these years I was right?

[Mr Torchey]

of course we have Jerrys March 1957 analog showing up next week. What a pattern ,hope it produces, oh and for sh its and giggles on the CIPS page today 4 of the top ten analogs are from 1994. Should be fun, not all white but maybe all frozen with another good shot the following week. Spring will come at some point we all know, maybe right into summer like some years.

Steve explain what this means..........we all know the last couple Marches were freaks of nature, all 4 sne majors are between +2-+3.7, so we are above normal for March, with cooler times ahead, seems like a perfectly normal March and perfectly normal beginning of MET spring????? This is how its supposed to be.