Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Enjoy the snow while it lasts. Before we know it Tolland will be the new Bridgeport! http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news-app/story.79 Could this explain the lack of snow in the valley the last few years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 This is going to be a dendrite/weatherMA (if he's there) special. Has the classic look of a 1P1 maybe down to dendrite just barely stays all snow. With the clipper and Tuesday threats trending as they have, Id give it up south of CON, its been a epic second half but time to let NNE take over. I'm not there . I'm not home either lol. I'm in FL till Tuesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euler Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Ski areas in North Central Vermont reporting 6-8 inches of snow this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 7 Enjoy the snow while it lasts. Before we know it Tolland will be the new Bridgeport! http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/news-app/story.79 maybe they can like CWG blame the DC bust on GW. It's out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Ski areas in North Central Vermont reporting 6-8 inches of snow this morning!8-10 at MRG and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 interesting. The lakes have seen a general increase in snow in the last 50 years. But you gotta wonder if there is a brake point somewhere where it shifts the other direction. I've wondered that as well. No trend here last 100 years but do we get to a point where we start seeing one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 maybe they can like CWG blame the DC bust on GW. It's out of control. I dunno... their post was fine I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 I dunno... their post was fine I thought.They lost me at GFDL, and this, Figure 1 shows the geographic distribution of snowfall change in response to CO 2 doubling as a percent of the control simulatio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 If that study is correct, ORH will be averaging about 35" of snow 70 years from now. Pretty hard to believe that...but I'll probably be dead before finding out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 They lost me at GFDL, and this, Figure 1 shows the geographic distribution of snowfall change in response to CO 2 doubling as a percent of the control simulatio ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 If that study is correct, ORH will be averaging about 35" of snow 70 years from now. Pretty hard to believe that...but I'll probably be dead before finding out, lol. lol I know. Good think you'll be dead by then! Probably too many variables involved for something as complex as snowfall to really have any idea. I could see us reaching a critical point where snowfall begins to drop off at one point at Nick mentioned. Maybe a more highly variable snowfall regime? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 GFS is still pretty ugly for next week, though it did produce a much more defined secondary reflection at the surface on this run compared to previous runs...I wonder if there could be an icing problem in the interior on a setup like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 lol I know. Good think you'll be dead by then! Probably too many variables involved for something as complex as snowfall to really have any idea. I could see us reaching a critical point where snowfall begins to drop off at one point at Nick mentioned. Maybe a more highly variable snowfall regime? Who knows. That scenario is also only valid if CO2 doubles in 70 years which may or may not occur. That looks like one of the higher emissions scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 I'd take trees down and power out and a damaging icestorm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 I'd take trees down and power out and a damaging icestorm next week Looks like a Pike north kinda deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Looks like a Pike north kinda deal.Disagree though certainly the valley will struggle as they often do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 that southern shortwave could be helpful if it slowed down or the northern shortwave sped up. It could allow for the northern shortwave a pocket to dig further south before crossing the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 It's fascinating ...albeit undoubtedly annoying to winter storm enthusiasts, how the -NAO blocking can be so prodigious, and west based, and the models may very well succeed in plowing a low so far NW like that. The L/W, wave lengths appear to be usually short quartered for gradients over all that are this steep. Not sure how well that will play out, or if there might be some whiplash corrections coming into nearer terms, but the operational GFS' position with that translating system next week, while concurrently evolving the -NAO that way ...is bizarre. The 00z Euro, GGEM, UKMET and NOGAPS all did trend SE a little - hm. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 12z GGEM is interesting for SNE and NNE http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 but the operational GFS' position with that translating system next week, while concurrently evolving the -NAO that way ...is bizarre. It's the GFS... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 GEM is definitely colder...has a snow changing over to ice look...then it tries to redevelop the whole coastal almost on top of us...sort of like 2 events really close together. Regardless, I'm sure we'll see models continue to struggle with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 GEM is definitely colder...has a snow changing over to ice look...then it tries to redevelop the whole coastal almost on top of us...sort of like 2 events really close together. Regardless, I'm sure we'll see models continue to struggle with this setup. Yep, I could almost see this thing completely correcting toward the coast given time, Will - it may not ultimately work out that way, no, but given the whole of the teleconnector awareness, there is quite a lot of room for more commitment to a 2ndary there. This run wouldn't need much coaxing to get that to happen with all that blocking N/NE. The position of the primary may yet be too far W-N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 GGEM is intresting for down here, has 8-9 hours of solid moderate snow, but I can't tell if it's from the overunning, the miller B, or both, since we don't stop precipitating, we go to ice for 2-3 hours and then rain... more analysis of it for here in the disco thread for sunday night and in the NYC forum. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 The shortwave travels east-west across the country because of the block. You can only do so much when a Pacific shortwave is entering the US in Washington State. This would be a whole different story if you had more west coast ridging and the thing was able to dig into the central/southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 To have a week of 30s for highs and no snow will suck, even though the snow drought ended in spectacular fashion less than a month ago, we here on the coast know whats coming in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 To have a week of 30s for highs and no snow will suck, even though the snow drought ended in spectacular fashion less than a month ago, we here on the coast know whats coming in a few weeks. Drizzle Dandies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Man I would pound that GGEM solution all day long. Orographic enhancement on backside with a good deal of synoptic moisture. Maybe NVT will finally get back on the train. Today's 6" of upslope was nice but could use something denser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Euro , nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Wow, Euro is much colder...makes the transfer quicker and keeps SNE a lot snowier...pike northward might actually stay all snow this run. Some taint gets into CT/RI but there's front end thumpage before that. 2M temps are really cold though at 120h...so taint would be of the frozen variety away from the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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