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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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This is going to be a dendrite/weatherMA (if he's there) special.

Has the classic look of a 1P1 maybe down to dendrite just barely stays all snow.

With the clipper and Tuesday threats trending as they have, Id give it up south of CON, its been a epic second half but time to let NNE take over.

I'm not there :(. I'm not home either lol. I'm in FL till Tuesday....
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interesting.  The lakes have seen a general increase in snow in the last 50 years.  But you gotta wonder if there is a brake point somewhere where it shifts the other direction. 

 

I've wondered that as well. No trend here last 100 years but do we get to a point where we start seeing one?

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If that study is correct, ORH will be averaging about 35" of snow 70 years from now. Pretty hard to believe that...but I'll probably be dead before finding out, lol.

 

lol I know. Good think you'll be dead by then!

 

Probably too many variables involved for something as complex as snowfall to really have any idea. I could see us reaching a critical point where snowfall begins to drop off at one point at Nick mentioned. Maybe a more highly variable snowfall regime? Who knows. 

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GFS is still pretty ugly for next week, though it did produce a much more defined secondary reflection at the surface on this run compared to previous runs...I wonder if there could be an icing problem in the interior on a setup like that.

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lol I know. Good think you'll be dead by then!

 

Probably too many variables involved for something as complex as snowfall to really have any idea. I could see us reaching a critical point where snowfall begins to drop off at one point at Nick mentioned. Maybe a more highly variable snowfall regime? Who knows. 

That scenario is also only valid if CO2 doubles in 70 years which may or may not occur.  That looks like one of the higher emissions scenarios.

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It's fascinating ...albeit undoubtedly annoying to winter storm enthusiasts, how the -NAO blocking can be so prodigious, and west based, and the models may very well succeed in plowing a low so far NW like that.   

 

The L/W, wave lengths appear to be usually short quartered for gradients over all that are this steep.   Not sure how well that will play out, or if there might be some whiplash corrections coming into nearer terms, but the operational GFS' position with that translating system next week, while concurrently evolving the -NAO that way ...is bizarre. 

 

The 00z Euro, GGEM, UKMET and NOGAPS all did trend SE a little -  hm.  interesting

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GEM is definitely colder...has a snow changing over to ice look...then it tries to redevelop the whole coastal almost on top of us...sort of like 2 events really close together.

 

Regardless, I'm sure we'll see models continue to struggle with this setup.

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GEM is definitely colder...has a snow changing over to ice look...then it tries to redevelop the whole coastal almost on top of us...sort of like 2 events really close together.

 

Regardless, I'm sure we'll see models continue to struggle with this setup.

 

Yep, I could almost see this thing completely correcting toward the coast given time, Will - it may not ultimately work out that way, no, but given the whole of the teleconnector awareness, there is quite a lot of room for more commitment to a 2ndary there.   

 

This run wouldn't need much coaxing to get that to happen with all that blocking N/NE.  The position of the primary may yet be too far W-N. 

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GGEM is intresting for down here, has 8-9 hours of solid moderate snow, but I can't tell if it's from the overunning, the miller B, or both, since we don't stop precipitating, we go to ice for 2-3 hours and then rain...

more analysis of it for here in the disco thread for sunday night and in the NYC forum.

-skisheep

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Wow, Euro is much colder...makes the transfer quicker and keeps SNE a lot snowier...pike northward might actually stay all snow this run. Some taint gets into CT/RI but there's front end thumpage before that. 2M temps are really cold though at 120h...so taint would be of the frozen variety away from the south coast.

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