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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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It must have been an extremely cold airmass around ALB on March 13,14 1984 when we had that 14 inches of snow and temps stayed in the teens all day. The low was 8 and the high of 21 at midnight.  I guess you were a tad small then or maybe non-existent yet.  LOL

 

18z GFS is frigid this weekend. Wow some arctic air around for March. H85s of -20C tickling parts of New England.

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Euro back south with the Saturday event....can't make up its mind. All snow for SNE.

 

 

Event #2 Monday looks even better

 

The big one Wednesday still transfers too late for SNE, -NAO may be too north? Wouldn't be surprised to see a trend back to a more favorable track / earlier secondary transfer

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One thing I'm getting from the various models is that the PNA is looking rather negative. If not for the negative NAO, we would be torched.

 

This doesn't seem to lend itself to classic coastal storms...seems like that run of a few days ago is off the table totally now. Southwest flow events and center jumps to off SNE yeah still do-able.

 

That 144-168 hr event may still be more snow and or snow/ice, but I only saw the 144/168 maps. By 168  the secondary is on the NH coast and just about all of SNE is under 850/0C. At 144 the 2M temps were pretty cold pretty far south.

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Isn't today the 125 year anniversary of the beginning of the 1888 blizzard? As a small boy, some old timers around had lived through it and I heard more about that storm than any other growing up.

NYC changed from RA to SN+ shortly after midnight on the 12th, and most of the snow there fell on that day, though the 13th was just as windy and colder - it's high of 12 is the coldest for any March day at NYC.  The changeover was probably several hours later in New England.

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The important thing to note from the wobbling of the models is that this is nowhere near done. Hopefully, as we get into the medium range, the models can sort themselves out, and we can converge on a solution, but for now, you cant attach yourself to one run, because its going to change again. My guess is that the events are going to be an either or situation, being that a stronger overrunning hurts the coastal for round three, and a weaker overrunning might allow for a stronger coastal, although I think the coastal is toast at this point for down here. Obviously I'm favoring option number one, that being a stronger overrunning event, however, at this point, anything's on the table.

 

Like I said earlier, I'm moderatley to highly confident that my seasonal total is not going to go into the books as 40.0"(still well above climo), but I have no idea how its going to work out.

-skisheep

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3 snow events over the next 10 days. 2 light to moderate and one big one.. Days and days of snow

Well the euro op was OK for Mon for you guys but the ecens and 00z GFS are suppressed. Sat/Sun looks pretty weak..maybe someone gets a stripe of a few inches. The SWFE/redeveloper looks most interesting at this point. At least the pattern is cold and active. It's all you can really ask for in mid March.
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Well the euro op was OK for Mon for you guys but the ecens and 00z GFS are suppressed. Sat/Sun looks pretty weak..maybe someone gets a stripe of a few inches. The SWFE/redeveloper looks most interesting at this point. At least the pattern is cold and active. It's all you can really ask for in mid March.

Man, I'm behind you by 1.3"....if I can't beat you this season, then time to give it up lol

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Man, I'm behind you by 1.3"....if I can't beat you this season, then time to give it up lol

I'm not sure if my sig is updated and I don't recall my exact total...I keep a spreadsheet of my climo data though. Anyways, I pretty much nickle and dimed except for the blizz "graze" and the foot a couple weeks ago. Missing out last week hurt. It's been a fairly average winter up here.
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NYC changed from RA to SN+ shortly after midnight on the 12th, and most of the snow there fell on that day, though the 13th was just as windy and colder - it's high of 12 is the coldest for any March day at NYC.  The changeover was probably several hours later in New England.

 

 

The rain actually changed over to freezing rain for a while before turning to snow. The temperature in

NYC's Central Park on the 13th held at 6F from 2am - 9am, and did not reach 10F until 1pm, incredible for mid-March.

 

In SNE New Haven turned to snow at 2:30am, on monday, March 12th,1888.

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I'm not sure if my sig is updated and I don't recall my exact total...I keep a spreadsheet of my climo data though. Anyways, I pretty much nickle and dimed except for the blizz "graze" and the foot a couple weeks ago. Missing out last week hurt. It's been a fairly average winter up here.

 

:weenie:

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