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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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Yeah no shortage of events, that's for sure.

 

 

What a sick weenie pattern that is. I'm really impressed at the cold available. Its one thing to get some good blocking (ala first half of Mar 2010)...its another to get it this late with some legit arctic air around. This keeps everyone in the game right down to the beaches.

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The area from ORH to NE CT over to NW Ri is a very good snow area and many winters gets more snow than you. You are too far NW some winters.

True for the Maine foothills, too. Farmington averages 22" more snow than ORH - about 1/3 more - but in the 60 yr for which I can compare, ORH has led in 13. (That includes 2012-13. ORH is up by about 20" to date.) It's streaky - Farmington led 15 yr in a row, centered on the 1970s. ORH took the honors 3-of-4, twice, mid 1960s and 02-03 thru 05-06.

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Euro ensembles look pretty wintry for the main deal next Tuesday. Looks like a SWFE look with a low near the Cape by 00z Wednesday.

 

Impressive how cold the airmass is a week out on the ensemble mean. Hopefully it trended even colder as we get closer.

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How about for the 2 snowstorms before it?

A little colder but still brings the low overhead for the first storm...that would favor north. It doesn't have the second low and almost has an overrunning signal instead of two separate events. I could see something like that...I'm not sure we will have three rapid fire events like that.

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Wow, the EURO is a warning event(6"+) down here for the overrunning event according to Accupro snowmap... It looks totally confused though, I think it's a while before we see some sort of agreement on this one, although I would have no problem if the EURO was right!

-skisheep

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Around here on the op. Euro its sort of one long event. It just continues as the second s/w comes in.  I see the 850 temps go >0C in the southern part of SNE at h168 during part 2.

 

But it will probably end up nothing like this when all is said and done anyway....

Wow, the EURO is a warning event(6"+) down here for the overrunning event according to Accupro snowmap... It looks totally confused though, I think it's a while before we see some sort of agreement on this one, although I would have no problem if the EURO was right!

-skisheep

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Around here on the op. Euro its sort of one long event. It just continues as the second s/w comes in.  I see the 850 temps go >0C in the southern part of SNE at h168 during part 2.

 

But it will probably end up nothing like this when all is said and done anyway....

Actually both Stamford and Lake Placid do very well on this run. SLK in particular looks to see a nice long duration moderate event, should be nice for spring skiing. 850s for NYC don't go above 0  between hours 24 and 192(except 96 and 102), they probably go up after 192 though, although isn't round 3 a nonevent compared to round 2 on this run? Haven't looked at text for SLK yet, but KNYC is 1.2 at the surface for the overrunning event, which is probably below 32 here(we run around 3-4 degrees cooler than NYC on average.) We also get close to 1" QPF, with .52 in 6 hours.

 

But, the last part of your post is the most important, since we all know this is going to change 5 more times before we get a solution. I'm highly confident on an accumulating snow for Lake Placid, and moderatley confident that 40.0" will not be my seasonal total here, but too early to know what it will be.

-skisheep

 

-skisheep

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