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The lions end to March banter and discussion


Ginx snewx

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whatever the cause, no rest for the weary the next 21 days

no your right , the blizzard was 100 % the cause (well the blizz/ and the high pressure to it's NW at it departed)

 

this beast sent swell all the way down the coast, right now huge ne swells are still pounding FLorida from our blizzard.....FL is usually about 3 days away (swell travel time) .....regarding a storm that is East of new england (slow movers with a long SSW/NNE fetch) really hammer Fl with long period NE/NNE  swell.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

 

peak'd yesterday down there....but i have some buddies down their who surf and i posted in the dade county surf report (website) starting over a week ago as this being a good swell producer for them.   As it play'd out ....the storm really didn't get into their swell window until well off the delmarva (late thursday) but man this thing is a swell producing beast

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no your right , the blizzard was 100 % the cause (well the blizz/ and the high pressure to it's NW at it departed)

 

this beast sent swell all the way down the coast, right now huge ne swells are still pounding FLorida from our blizzard.....FL is usually about 3 days away (swell travel time) .....regarding a storm that is East of new england (slow movers with a long SSW/NNE fetch) really hammer Fl with long period NE/NNE  swell.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009'>http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

 

peak'd yesterday down there....but i have some buddies down their who surf and i posted in the dade county surf report (website) starting over a week ago as this being a good swell producer for them.   As it play'd out ....the storm really didn't get into their swell window until well off the delmarva (late thursday) but man this thing is a swell producing beast

Yep, hey where we're you during the storm? How much? My RI buds were all talking about the surf yesterday
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Pickles what's up with this?

what's up with what bro

 

i was in wakefield, ma for the storm. 14.5 or so inches on a clear'd board.   just to my east had a few more ...and just to my west had a cple less.

 

i didn't get to the beach for this....but i was following the swell potential with this one for a while....esp for my friends down in florida.

 

IF winds stay'd more NE for E coastal mass.....this would have been EPIC wrt coastal damage.  N winds were saving grace for much less damage and side shore compontent for alot of areas instead of onshore.   when it became certain winds were gonna be north at coast....i was somewhat relieved for coastline....yes it ripp'd with an e /ENE wind for nearly a day....but another day or so of that and it would have been much worse and higher (more mature) seas

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what's up with what bro

 

i was in wakefield, ma for the storm. 14.5 or so inches on a clear'd board.   just to my east had a few more ...and just to my west had a cple less.

 

i didn't get to the beach for this....but i was following the swell potential with this one for a while....esp for my friends down in florida.

 

IF winds stay'd more NE for E coastal mass.....this would have been EPIC wrt coastal damage.  N winds were saving grace for much less damage and side shore compontent for alot of areas instead of onshore.   when it became certain winds were gonna be north at coast....i was somewhat relieved for coastline....yes it ripp'd with an e /ENE wind for nearly a day....but another day or so of that and it would have been much worse and higher (more mature) seas

Sorry http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44008&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT
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I'm focusing on the clipper first. March clippers can be amped. I think back to the one around or on St. Patrick's Day 1994 in ENY. Just so long as it cuts a little south of us.

 

 

Pickles wh

 

18z has a fairly potent clipper through here on Saturday, actually

A lot of spread on it though amongst the Ec ECENS and GFS and its ensemble members

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I know it. I guess some economic weenies crunched the numbers and said it was more

beneficial to have it earlier, but for my selfish reasons, I hate it. I actually would rather have the morning light.

Agree with you but in a few weeks mornings will be plenty light. When I was a kid, dst started the last weekend in April.

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I know it. I guess some economic weenies crunched the numbers and said it was more

beneficial to have it earlier, but for my selfish reasons, I hate it. I actually would rather have the morning light.

Actually, the most recent economic data argues that DST does not save money and may even impose modest costs.

 

http://www.nber.org/papers/w14429.pdf

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ginxy interestin find.

 

i wish they still had quikscat satelite...it would show how strong LL winds were...and u could go back a cpl days. Mean wave direction is from the NE/ENE ....and dominant swell period is 14....so that would indicate a good NE(borderline ENE)  swell 55 degrees (aprox)  ....prob alot of  wind wave on top.

 

that bouy is situated just far enough SE of nantucket (it looks) to take advantage of a big swell to the ENE just off atlantic canada ..i mean a swell from well E/ESE of newfoundland could ping off that bouy....i would really like to look at a surface map from the last 3 days (with at least high's and lows and some lines of equal pressure drawn)

 

MY GUESS is there was a very nice fetch of high winds that re-asserted itself  somewhere off atlantic canada probably related to a big high pressure interacting with our old noreaster setting up a large ENE/NE fetch SE of newfoundland

 

 EDIT...actually peeking at sun nite's 0z ecmwf (this will prob be mon nite's link in an hour after 0z comes out tonite) but you can see

 

that nice big high over newfoundland and the high IS interacting with our blizzard (still over N atlantic) and the NW side of blizzard those NE wind fetch is really being aided by the newfoundland high......move this back another 24 hours to Saturday late nite (and the high and our low would be oriented such that there is a renewed (from high pressure building down) Ene/NE fetch aimed at Cape cod.  this action travers'd to the sw or wsw and hit the cape earlier today ..probably about a 36-42 hour journey ....a 14 sec swell travel approx 21 mph...over open ocean.  Prior to that enhanced ene/NE fetch on saturday (i.e b4 that high built down) the fetch was lessen'd as our low pressure was moving away and that is why the bouy show'd a pattern of peaking the day of blizzard and then lessening as the storm moved away....it is somewhat rare for waveheights to reach the peak from when a storm was close by BUT it goes to show you how important a well placed high can be for huge wave heights....this happens all the time on the back side of aluetian lows with huge high pressure's combining to send sick NW swells to hawaii originating from those HUGE coastal alaska  storms. 

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no your right , the blizzard was 100 % the cause (well the blizz/ and the high pressure to it's NW at it departed)

 

this beast sent swell all the way down the coast, right now huge ne swells are still pounding FLorida from our blizzard.....FL is usually about 3 days away (swell travel time) .....regarding a storm that is East of new england (slow movers with a long SSW/NNE fetch) really hammer Fl with long period NE/NNE  swell.

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

 

peak'd yesterday down there....but i have some buddies down their who surf and i posted in the dade county surf report (website) starting over a week ago as this being a good swell producer for them.   As it play'd out ....the storm really didn't get into their swell window until well off the delmarva (late thursday) but man this thing is a swell producing beast

 

The last event wasn't a blizzard.  When he originally said blizzard, I thought he was speaking about the previous system, which was.  

 

Yeah, there's probably some long-swell residual effects from the last event.  But still, there is going to be some longer lasting effects of -NAO on the sea surface should it persist.

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The last event wasn't a blizzard.  When he originally said blizzard, I thought he was speaking about the previous system, which was.  

 

Yeah, there's probably some long-swell residual effects from the last event.  But still, there is going to be some longer lasting effects of -NAO on the sea surface should it persist.

there is def some long swell primary effects from the high pressure that was alligned near new foundland sat nite and the lines of equal pressure were pack'd and aim'd SW/WSW toward the cape.....the -nao supplied he blocking ...it didn't supply the swell .....i follow swell very closely ....i would forecast it when i lived in florida....  swell don't stick around from a blizzard a month ago...it doesn't happen ...ever. the -nao state would only supply small amounts of potential swell energy IF there was a persistent "trade wind" type ENE winds constantly aim'd at the cape area from blocking. i don' think this was occuring and if it did it would be of the 2-4 foot vairety that central Florida gets when the trade winds set up over w atlantic in summer.

 

also i would add that winds were sustained over 35 mph for 3 hrs and visibility of less than 1/4 of a mile on MQE gauranteed :)

from this "near blizzard"

 

the storm def impressed me with the winds and just crushing a large area with over a foot ....a awesome system with far reaching effect on seas all the way down to florida....and the allignment of the high pressure NOW and the Near blizzard is sending huge fetch toward Dominican republic as well as turks/caicos this will give them renewed swell heights (just like natucket saw) sometime around wed just watch dem bouys 

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0z 3/12 euro similar to 12z 3/11... south tick for Sat, but for next Wed system shortwave amplifies too west and secondary develops too late... would probably still be a good hit for NNE, but far from the epic solution yesterday

 

obviously way too early for any assertions, but the signal continues

 

for archives because it wasn't posted last night, here are 0z 3/11 solutions (last night's 3/11 run, not current run that I described above):

 

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