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NBC Nightly News on Computer Models


WilkesboroDude

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USA! USA! USA!

Maybe it's time for a Weather Model World War. NCEP vs ECMWF vs CMC vs UKMET vs JMA.

NBC has done a couple of segments on weather models in recent months (they had one on the Today Show a little while back). They never seem to include the caveat that no model is infallible all of the time, not even the Euro. But it would take a while to explain concepts like run-to-run consistency, initialization, model consensus (the ECMWF was the outlier for a time with this very storm), and other subtleties, so it's easier to just say that the Euro rules and the GFS drools.

Don't get me wrong, NCEP obviously needs more money/more resources/better computers/delicious cupcakes. But blind model riding makes me nervous enough when mets do it, I don't feel particularly good when the general public is encouraged to do it as well. I also hope that segments like this don't give the impression to the less-aware that "American models suck = American forecasters suck".

Obviously the biggest issue with "Snowquester" (WTF?) was that they planted Jim Cantore in D.C., though.

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Maybe it's time for a Weather Model World War. NCEP vs ECMWF vs CMC vs UKMET vs JMA.

NBC has done a couple of segments on weather models in recent months (they had one on the Today Show a little while back). They never seem to include the caveat that no model is infallible all of the time, not even the Euro. But it would take a while to explain concepts like run-to-run consistency, initialization, model consensus (the ECMWF was the outlier for a time with this very storm), and other subtleties, so it's easier to just say that the Euro rules and the GFS drools.

Don't get me wrong, NCEP obviously needs more money/more resources/better computers/delicious cupcakes. But blind model riding makes me nervous enough when mets do it, I don't feel particularly good when the general public is encouraged to do it as well. I also hope that segments like this don't give the impression to the less-aware that "American models suck = American forecasters suck".

Obviously the biggest issue with "Snowquester" (WTF?) was that they planted Jim Cantore in D.C., though.

 

I agree. A non-story made to look like a story. 

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The euro absolutely stunk this past storm and GFS did better. I"ve always been a euro fan, but it seems that when both models lock onto a storm with different outcomes, the gfs is right just as often as the euro.

TW

I don't think the euro stunk. It had a blip where it took the storm a bit too far south but it was only a run or two. I remember seeing some snow maps from the euro that were pretty accurate for north VA.

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I don't think the euro stunk. It had a blip where it took the storm a bit too far south but it was only a run or two. I remember seeing some snow maps from the euro that were pretty accurate for north VA.

 

The Euro kept accumulating snowfall across the northern NC Piedmont until about 72 hours out, so it certainly missed that.  With that being said, it wasn't terrible and it wasn't as if the GFS exactly was perfect with that storm, too.  Indeed, the Euro was the first one to really pick up on the idea of the storm stalling off the NC/VA coast at ~10 days out.

 

With that being said, statistically, there is not a huge difference between the Euro, GFS, UK Met, or the GGEM (since its upgrade) in the Northern Hemisphere.  Sure enough, the Euro is best overall, but it's not as if the other modeling should be tossed into the dumpster.

 

acz5.gif

 

The Euro really seems to excel far above the GFS in the Southern Hemisphere.  They must have better data collection down there or something.

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